Party Activists, Campaign Resources and Candidate Position Taking: Theory, Tests and Applications

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
WOOJIN MOON
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Support ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Party Activists ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Stage Estimation ◽  
Ideological Voting ◽  
Theoretical Results

Electoral competition is here specified as revolving around both candidate policy positions and non-policy issues.Two candidates spend their resources on non-policy issues to sway citizens' ideological voting decisions but they are constrained by their party activists who provide them with electoral resources. In this setting, a candidate with a resource advantage converges more towards the centre, but a candidate with a resource disadvantage diverges more from the centre. This asymmetry in two candidates' incentives to converge generates the result that the two candidates do not converge towards each other. To test these theoretical results, two-stage estimation is used in this article to solve the reciprocal relationship between policy moderation and campaign resources. This analysis produces strong empirical support for the model in the context of US Senate elections between 1974 and 2000.

Level-of-Analysis Effects on Explanations of Voting: The Case of the 1982 US Senate Elections

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald C. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Path Model ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Level Of Analysis

The availability of rich survey data, and concerns over the ecological fallacy, have led voting researchers to focus on the explanation of individual voting decisions at the expense of accounting for patterns of aggregate election outcomes. This has skewed our understanding of the relative importance of various factors in the electoral process. A framework for analysis of elections at multiple levels is developed and applied using data from twenty-three exit polls from the US Senate elections. Comparable parameters for a simple voting model are estimated for individual voting and for election outcomes. Election-level factors, especially candidates' issue strategies and incumbency, are substantially more important in accounting for election outcomes than in explaining individual voting decisions. Finally, working with election outcomes permits an estimate of a path model of Senate election outcomes that shows key relationships that are not accessible from individual level data.

The Paradox of Less Effective Incumbent Spending: Theory and Tests

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
WOOJIN MOON
Keyword(s):  
Senate Elections ◽  
The Us ◽  
Swing Voters ◽  
Us Senate

In this article, the reason why incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending is explained. The argument is that incumbent spending efficiency depends on the marginality of seats: safe incumbent spending is less effective than marginal incumbent spending, since safe incumbents have to buy fewer extreme voters, whereas marginal incumbents can easily buy a larger number of swing voters. The analysis of the US Senate elections between 1974 and 2000 shows that safe incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending, but marginal incumbent spending is not. The analysis also shows that the previous finding of less effective incumbent spending is largely due to the fact that the data for marginal and safe incumbents have been aggregated.

Religion and Secularism among American Party Activists

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey C. Layman ◽  
Christopher L. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
American Politics ◽  
Prior Work ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Party Polarization ◽  
Party Activists ◽  
American Party ◽  
Religious Polarization

AbstractPrior work has shown party activists and religious divisions to be two of the leading causes of party polarization in American politics. Using the Convention Delegate Studies, we examine the interaction between these two culprits and their impact on party polarization. We leverage a novel measure of secularism in the latest wave of the Convention Delegate Studies to demonstrate that active secularism is distinct both conceptually and statistically from low religiosity. Furthermore, we show that both religiosity and secularism drive party activists to take more extreme policy positions, to identify themselves as more ideologically extreme, and to exhibit less support for compromise. As the Democratic and Republican Parties have become more secular and religious, respectively, these results suggest religious polarization may compound existing divisions between the two parties and exacerbate the partisan divide in American politics.

Weight bias in US candidate selection and election

2014 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 334-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia V. Roehling ◽  
Mark V. Roehling ◽  
Ashli Brennan ◽  
Ashley R. Drew ◽  
Abbey J. Johnston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Web Sites ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Size Difference ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use data from the 2008 and 2012 US Senate elections to examine the relationship between candidate size (obese, overweight, normal weight) and candidate selection and election outcomes. Design/methodology/approach – Using pictures captured from candidate web sites, participants rated the size of candidates in the primary and general US Senate elections. χ2 analyses, t-tests and hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test for evidence of bias against overweight and obese candidates and whether gender and election information moderate that relationship. Findings – Obese candidates were largely absent from the pool of candidates in both the primary and general elections. Overweight women, but not overweight men, were also underrepresented. Supporting our hypothesis that there is bias against overweight candidates, heavier candidates tended to receive lower vote share than their thinner counterparts, and the larger the size difference between the candidates, the larger the vote share discrepancy. The paper did not find a moderating effect for gender or high-information high vs low-information elections on the relationship between candidate size and vote share. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to understand the process by which obese candidates are culled from the candidate pool and the cognitions underlying the biases against overweight candidates. Social implications – Because of the bias against obese political candidates, as much as one-third of the adult US population are likely to be excluded or being elected to a major political office. Originality value – This study is the first to use election data to examine whether bias based on size extends to the electoral process.

DO POLLS OR MARKETS FORECAST BETTER? EVIDENCE FROM THE 2010 US SENATE ELECTIONS

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 64-74
Author(s):  
Leighton Vaughan Williams ◽  
Blake Saville ◽  
Herman Stekler
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Prediction Market ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Senate Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Opinion Polls

In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, in forecasting the outcome of the 2010 US Senate elections. Prediction markets are speculative or betting markets created or employed for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions. To do this, we used data from the 2010 US Senate election campaigns, comparing the performance of an established prediction market with opinion polls. Overall we found no significant difference in the forecasting ability of the polls and prediction markets in the Senate races under examination.

scholarly journals Who wins preference votes? An analysis of party loyalty, ideology, and accountability to voters

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olle Folke ◽  
Johanna Rickne
Keyword(s):  
Policy Positions ◽  
First Finding ◽  
Party Loyalty ◽  
Preference Voting ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
Policy Proposals

We study the distribution of preference votes across politicians with different behaviors and attitudes. There are two main findings. First, preference votes are concentrated to politicians who are more active in communicating their policy proposals and policy priorities. This suggests that preference voting may incentivize more transparency and communication among politicians, and, hence, be positive for accountability. Second, preference votes are concentrated to politicians who are more—not less—loyal to the party in their voting decisions, and to politicians who’s ideological and policy positions are mainstream—rather than extreme—compared to their party colleagues. Together with the first finding, this suggests that preference voting can strengthen the bond of accountability between voters and politicians without undercutting parties’ ideological cohesion.

The Partisan Content of Candidate Messages in US Senate Elections

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-350
Author(s):  
Matthew L. Bergbower ◽  
Scott D. McClurg ◽  
Thomas M. Holbrook
Keyword(s):  
Senate Elections ◽  
Us Senate

A Comparison of Voting for U.S. Senator and Representative in 1978

1980 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 633-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan I. Abramowitz
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Political Studies ◽  
Ideological Voting

This article compares voting for U.S. senator and representative in 1978. Analysis of data from the Center for Political Studies 1978 Election Study reveals that incumbents were better known and more positively evaluated than challengers, but House incumbents enjoyed a much greater advantage than Senate incumbents. The invisibility of most House challengers was a serious obstacle to accountability in House elections. Senate challengers were much more visible to the electorate. In addition, ideology and party identification had a greater impact on evaluations of Senate candidates than on evaluations of House candidates. Evaluations of House incumbents appear to have been based largely on frequent positive contacts between voters and their representative. As a result, ideological voting was more prevalent in Senate elections than in House elections.

scholarly journals A thematic or a relational approach to the financial crisis?

KWALON ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Kleinnijenhuis
Keyword(s):  
Text Analysis ◽  
Telephone Survey ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Analysis Program ◽  
Recent Application ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Relational Approach ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Us Senate

Veyor® is a trademark of Idea Works, Inc. It is a text analysis program that performs, either by itself or in combination with programs such as Qualrus® and Globalpoint®, not only word category counts, but also sentiment analysis. According to a newspaper article about a recent application to a campaign for the US Senate elections (Reed, 2010), the sentiment towards the candidates in blogs and newspapers as extracted by Globalpoint® predicted the outcome of the elections more accurately than a telephone survey. Candidates received positive or negative points based on what was being said about key issues in the race and were categorized under headings such as 'government,' 'economy,' 'personal' and subsets such as 'free market' and 'tax issues'.

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