Risk of Liver Cirrhosis in At-Risk Alcohol Drinkers Without HBV/HCV Infection: Development and Validation of a Simple Non-Invasive Risk Score Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yin Liu ◽  
Lan-wei Guo ◽  
Hui-fang Xu ◽  
Rui-hua Kang ◽  
Li-yang Zheng ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Xiangyu Zhang ◽  
Peiran Huang ◽  
Xinyu Wang ◽  
Kaiqian Zhou ◽  
Feiyu Chen ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Aboumrad ◽  
Gabrielle Zwain ◽  
Jeremy Smith ◽  
Nabin Neupane ◽  
Ethan Powell ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Introduction Early identification of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at risk for hospitalization may help to mitigate disease burden by allowing healthcare systems to conduct sufficient resource and logistical planning in the event of case surges. We sought to develop and validate a clinical risk score that uses readily accessible information at testing to predict individualized 30-day hospitalization risk following COVID-19 diagnosis. Methods We assembled a retrospective cohort of U.S. Veterans Health Administration patients (age ≥ 18 years) diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. We screened patient characteristics using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator logistic regression and constructed the risk score using characteristics identified as most predictive for hospitalization. Patients diagnosed before November 1, 2020, comprised the development cohort, while those diagnosed on or after November 1, 2020, comprised the validation cohort. We assessed risk score discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. This study was approved by the Veteran’s Institutional Review Board of Northern New England at the White River Junction Veterans Affairs Medical Center (Reference no.:1473972-1). Results The development and validation cohorts comprised 11,473 and 12,970 patients, of whom 4,465 (38.9%) and 3,669 (28.3%) were hospitalized, respectively. The independent predictors for hospitalization included in the risk score were increasing age, male sex, non-white race, Hispanic ethnicity, homelessness, nursing home/long-term care residence, unemployed or retired status, fever, fatigue, diarrhea, nausea, cough, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Model discrimination and calibration was good for the development (AUROC = 0.80; HL P-value = .05) and validation (AUROC = 0.80; HL P-value = .31) cohorts. Conclusions The prediction tool developed in this study demonstrated that it could identify patients with COVID-19 who are at risk for hospitalization. This could potentially inform clinicians and policymakers of patients who may benefit most from early treatment interventions and help healthcare systems anticipate capacity surges.


2021 ◽  
pp. 101618
Author(s):  
Liying Li ◽  
Ziqiong Wang ◽  
Muxin Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Ruan ◽  
Linxia Zhou ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 201 (Supplement 4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Shen Tan* ◽  
Amar Ahmad ◽  
Andrew Feber ◽  
Hugh Mostafid ◽  
Jo Cresswell ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Gil-Gómez ◽  
Javier Ampuero ◽  
Ángela Rojas ◽  
Rocío Gallego-Durán ◽  
Rocío Muñoz-Hernández ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 228-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-wen Huang ◽  
Bing Liao ◽  
Yang Huang ◽  
Jin-yu Liang ◽  
Quan-yuan Shan ◽  
...  

Aim: To confirm whether cirrhosis is indispensable for the non-invasive diagnostic criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-endemic areas. Methods: Between January 2014 and December 2014, a total of 409 patients with pathologically proven focal liver lesions who underwent contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) were recruited from our institution. Clinical liver cirrhosis, HBV/HCV infection and HCC-typical vascular pattern of the targeted lesion on CEUS were evaluated. The following 3 criteria were applied to these patients to diagnose HCC: criterion 1, clinical liver cirrhosis and HCC-typical vascular pattern; criterion 2, HBV/HCV infection and HCC-typical vascular pattern; criterion 3, HBV/HCV infection or clinical liver cirrhosis and HCC-typical vascular pattern. Pathological reports were considered the gold standard. Results: A total of 311 patients had confirmed HCC by pathology. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the ROC curve for criterion 1 were 29.6, 90.8, 44.3, 91.1, 28.9, and 0.60% respectively. For criterion 2, they were 83.3, 74.5, 81.2, 91.2, 58.4, and 0.79%, respectively, and for criterion 3, they were 86.2, 72.5, 82.9, 90.9, 62.3, and 0.79% respectively. Conclusions: In HBV-endemic areas, when using the HBV/HCV infection instead of cirrhosis as the precondition of the non-invasive diagnostic criteria for HCC, we should be aware of the potential false positive. Cirrhosis still plays an important role in the non-invasive diagnostic criteria for HCC because of the high specificity.


2019 ◽  
Vol 285 (4) ◽  
pp. 436-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. S. Tan ◽  
A. Ahmad ◽  
A. Feber ◽  
H. Mostafid ◽  
J. Cresswell ◽  
...  

PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e0152054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Hongyan Zhang ◽  
Chongjian Wang ◽  
Yongcheng Ren ◽  
Bingyuan Wang ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Menolly Lee ◽  
Yulia Bogdanova ◽  
Mei Chan ◽  
Louisa Owens ◽  
Sandy Wales ◽  
...  

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