Introduction Survival for colorectal cancer is improved by earlier detection. Rapid assessment and diagnostic demand have created a surge in two-week rule referrals and have subsequently placed a greater burden on endoscopy services. Between 2009 and 2014, a mean of 709 patients annually were referred to Royal Surrey County Hospital with a detection rate of 53 cancers per year giving a positive predictive value for these patients of 7.5%. We aimed to assess what impact the 2015 changes in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence referral criteria had on local cancer detection rate and endoscopy services. Methods A prospectively maintained database of patients referred under the two-week rule pathway for April 2017–2018 was sub-analysed and the data cross-referenced with all diagnostic reports. Findings There were 1,414 referrals, which is double the number of previous years; 80.6% underwent endoscopy as primary investigation and 62 cancers were identified, 51 being of colorectal and anal origin (positive predictive value 3.6%). A total of 88 patients were diagnosed, with other significant colorectal disease defined as high-risk adenomas, colitis and benign ulcers. Overall, a total of 10.6% of our two-week rule patients had a significant finding. Since the 2015 referral criteria, despite a dramatic rise in two-week rule referrals, there has been no increase in cancer detection. It has placed significant pressure on diagnostic services. This highlights the need for a less invasive, cheaper yet sensitive test to rule out cancer such as faecal immunochemical testing that can enable clinicians to triage and reduce referral to endoscopy in symptomatic patients.
Sensitivity and positive predictive value of the registration of self-expanding metal stent treatment for obstructive colorectal cancer in two Danish nationwide registries
