Flood regimes in the Southern Caucasus: the influence of precipitation on mean annual floods and frequency curves

2008 ◽  
Vol 39 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 385-401
Author(s):  
J. V. Sutcliffe ◽  
F. A. K. Farquharson ◽  
E. L. Tate ◽  
S. S. Folwell

Relations between mean annual flood estimates and basin area and precipitation, as well as dimensionless flood frequency curves, have been derived from a number of groups of gauging stations in the southern Caucasus. Total precipitation and its seasonal distribution are extremely variable at this location. The importance of antecedent soil moisture deficit (closely linked to the seasonal distribution of precipitation) in determining the shape of flood frequency curves is discussed through previous empirical studies and recent sensitivity analyses. The varying shape of regional curves from the southern Caucasus is related to the variations in soil moisture deficit.

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Sasmito Sasmito ◽  
Bambang Triatmodjo ◽  
Joko Sujono ◽  
Sri Harto, Br

Abstrak: Hidrograf satuan adalah salah satu cara untuk memperkirakan besarnya banjir di sungai akibat hujan pada suatu DAS. Hidrograf satuan sangat populer dan dipakai secara luas di dunia. Metode ini mempunyai fleksibilitas yang rendah terhadap hujan yang berbeda, sehingga hidrograf yang dihasilkan berbeda-beda pada setiap hujan. Hal ini diduga disebabkan antara lain karena teori hidrograf satuan mengabaikan pengaruh kondisi awal kelengasan tanah (antecedent soil moisture condition, AMC) pada proses penurunan hidrograf satuan. Tulisan ini menyajikan hasil penelitian tentang pengaruh AMC terhadap debit puncak hidrograf satuan observasi (qp-obs). Dalam penelitian ini variabel AMC didekati dengan besaran defisit kelengasan tanah (soil moisture deficit, SMD) yang mempunyai makna berlawanan dengan AMC. SMD direpresentasikan dengan variabel Sc (storage capacity) yakni volume udara di dalam pori tanah yang ditinggalkan air karena terevapotranspirasi keluar. Penelitian dilaksanakan dengan menggunakan data hidrologi (hujan, debit aliran, dan evaporasi) yang dikumpulkan dari 3 DAS hulu (upper catchment) di kawasan Gunung Merapi. Percobaan penelitian dilakukan dengan cara menurunkan hidrograf satuan dengan dua cara, yakni cara konvensional (Collins) menghasilkan hidrograf satuan observasi (HSosb), dan cara simulasi menggunakan model tangki menghasilkan hidrograf satuan simulasi (HSsim). Analisis pengaruh Sc dilakukan terhadap debit puncak HSosb dan debit puncak HSsim. Penelitian menghasilkan temuan yang dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut: (1) Hubungan Sc dan debit puncak hidrograf satuan, menunjukkan semakin besar Sc (semakin kecil AMC) debit puncak HSobs semakin kecil, (2) Formula koreksi yang didapat berbentuk fungsi eksponensial (qp-obs)/(qp-obs-kor)=1,104 e-0,012Sc, dengan qp-obs-kor adalah debit puncak hidrograf satuan observasi terkoreksi, (3)  HS observasi terkoreksi rerata mempunyai debit puncak puncak paling tinggi dibanding debit puncak HSS Nakayasu dan debit puncak HSS Gama 1.


Crop Science ◽  
1987 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1177-1184 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. Flagler ◽  
R. P. Patterson ◽  
A. S. Heagle ◽  
W. W. Heck

Forests ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 3748-3762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Han Yu ◽  
Guo-Dong Ding ◽  
Guang-Lei Gao ◽  
Yuan-Yuan Zhao ◽  
Lei Yan ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Bertola ◽  
Alberto Viglione ◽  
Sergiy Vorogushyn ◽  
David Lun ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
...  

<p>Changes in European floods during past decades have been analysed and detected by several studies. These studies typically focused on the mean flood behaviour, without distinguishing small and large floods. In this work, we investigate the causes of the detected flood trends across Europe over five decades (1960-2010), as a function of the return period. We adopt a regional non-stationary flood frequency approach to attribute observed flood changes to potential drivers, used as covariates of the parameters of the regional probability distribution of floods. The elasticities of floods with respect to the drivers and the regional contributions of the drivers to changes in flood quantiles associated with small and large return periods (i.e. 2-year and 100-year floods, respectively) are estimated by Bayesian inference, with prior information on the elasticity parameters obtained from expert knowledge and the literature. The data-based attribution approach is applied to annual maximum flood discharge seires from 2370 hydrometric stations in Europe. Extreme precipitation, antecedent soil moisture and snowmelt are the potential drivers considered. Results show that extreme precipitation mainly contributes to positive flood changes in North-western Europe. Both antecedent soil moisture and extreme precipitation contribute to negative flood changes in Southern Europe, with relative contributions varying with the return period. Antecedent soil moisture contributes the most to changes in small floods (i.e. T=2-10 years), while the two drivers contribute with comparable magnitude to changes in more extreme events. In eastern Europe, snowmelt clearly drives negative changes in both small and large floods.</p>


Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 370 (6520) ◽  
pp. 1095-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Jee-Hoon Jeong ◽  
Jin-Ho Yoon ◽  
Hyungjun Kim ◽  
S.-Y. Simon Wang ◽  
...  

Unprecedented heatwave-drought concurrences in the past two decades have been reported over inner East Asia. Tree-ring–based reconstructions of heatwaves and soil moisture for the past 260 years reveal an abrupt shift to hotter and drier climate over this region. Enhanced land-atmosphere coupling, associated with persistent soil moisture deficit, appears to intensify surface warming and anticyclonic circulation anomalies, fueling heatwaves that exacerbate soil drying. Our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the recent two decades is unprecedented over the quarter of a millennium, and this trend clearly exceeds the natural variability range. The “hockey stick”–like change warns that the warming and drying concurrence is potentially irreversible beyond a tipping point in the East Asian climate system.


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