scholarly journals Screening for nonstationary analysis

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 144-155
Author(s):  
Paul H. Kirshen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Sequential Analysis ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Additional Information

Abstract Adjustments in the designs of water resources systems due to climate change and other nonstationarities are warranted because the benefits of effective adaptation are well recognized. Therefore, the time and resources invested in these analyses are well worth the effort. Before a major investment in an effort is made, however, it is reasonable to determine if the problem is of sufficient complexity or the value of additional information is high enough to warrant the inclusion of complex, sophisticated methods that explicitly include nonstationarity and associated decision-making under deep uncertainty. There exist several planning level conditions such as the lifetime of the project, its criticality, and its reversibility that may indicate detailed analysis is not needed. There are also sequential analysis and screening steps that can be applied to determine the complexity of the methodology needed. Finally, the use of decision analysis can also help determine if additional, detailed analysis, or data collection are necessary. The use of one or several of these methods should be considered as initial steps before undertaking a vulnerability assessment and developing an adaptation strategy for a water resources system.

scholarly journals Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3152
Author(s):  
Mashor Housh ◽  
Tomer Aharon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Change Processes ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Uncertain Future

The common practices for the planning and management of Water Resources Systems (WSSs) have been challenged in the last few decades by global climate change processes, which are observed around the world in increasing frequencies. Climate change is manifested by climate variability, temperature increase, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, which have a decisive effect on natural resource availability and in turn on water quality. Historical records may not be sufficient to reliably account for uncertain future predictions under climate change conditions. While such highly uncertain situations become the “normal” case worldwide, the traditional practices of probabilistic risk measures cannot be used to appropriately quantify the uncertain phenomena under non-stationarity conditions. To better account for uncertain future conditions, the objective of this study is to develop a water management model based on Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) using optimization under deep uncertainty conditions. The Info-Gap theory is a framework that measures the confidence in the operational decisions by quantifying the robustness to uncertainty without accounting for any probabilistic data. To demonstrate the method as a tool to better guide the long-term sustainable operation of the water supply system under uncertain future conditions, we applied the Info-Gap model to the Sea of Galilee (SoG) regional WSS, which is a significant part of the Israeli National Water System (INWS). For Israel, which is, like other Middle East semi-arid regions, prone to dry conditions and limited water availability, there are well-founded concerns that prolonged periods of drought lie ahead, as a consequence of the global climate change processes. This study contributes a management tool for decision making under deep uncertainty to improve the decision-making process and better adapt to unpredictable uncertain future conditions. We demonstrate how the IGDT could be formulated and used to analyze WSSs under different settings and demonstrate how decisions could be derived from the IGDT formulation. We also show a sensitivity analysis for the obtained solutions.

Mainstreaming adaptation in integrated water resources management in China: from challenge to change

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 895-921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangbai He
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Integrated Water Resources Management ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Daunting Task ◽  
Entry Points ◽  
Climate Change Risks

China is facing many challenges in the water sector while implementing integrated water resources management (IWRM). Another daunting task – adapting to water-related impacts of climate change, is also challenging China's water managers. These challenges have been posing threats to China's economic, social and environmental development. While separate efforts in promoting IWRM and climate change adaptation have been made, the approach of mainstreaming climate change adaptation strategy within IWRM is seldom studied. Attempting to fill the gap, this paper argues that there is great potential in synergizing them after analysing their distinctions and common points. By developing climate-proofing strategies within IWRM, mainstreaming is able to minimize adverse water-related climate change risks and maximize the benefits of policies and plans. In this study, entry points of mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the sustaining environment of IWRM and its process will be identified and analysed.

Hydrologic Determinants of Climate Change Impacts on Regulated Water Resources Systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1933-1947 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. González-Zeas ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Iglesias ◽  
A. Granados ◽  
A. Chávez-Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Resources Systems

Comparison of fuzzy set ranking methods for implementation in water resources decision-making

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 692-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Predrag Prodanovic ◽  
Slobodan P Simonovic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Ranking Methods ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Ranking Of Alternatives ◽  
Risk Acceptance

A new multicriteria technique, fuzzy compromise programming (FCP), is used to evaluate discrete alternatives in the context of water resources decision-making. All uncertain variables (subjective and objective) are modeled by way of fuzzy sets. Fuzzy set ranking methods are employed to compare, rank, and (or) sort the fuzzy output produced by FCP. The literature suggests that many ranking methods are available; however, not all may be appropriate for water resources decision-making. The objective of this paper is to compare fuzzy set ranking methods that can be implemented with FCP. Nine such ranking methods are considered in this research, two of which are fully tested using case studies from the literature. It was found that for all case studies, the ranking of alternatives was not very sensitive to changes in the degree of risk acceptance by experts or changes in the ranking methods themselves.Key words: fuzzy set ranking methods, risk preferences, compromise decision, water resources systems.

scholarly journals Modeling and analysis of collective management of water resources

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 711-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Tilmant ◽  
P. van der Zaag ◽  
P. Fortemps
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Integrated Water Resources Management ◽  
Collective Choice ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Operating Policies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) recommends, among other things, that the management of water resources systems be carried out at the lowest appropriate level in order to increase the transparency, acceptability and efficiency of the decision-making process. Empowering water users and stakeholders transforms the decision-making process by enlarging the number of point of views that must be considered as well as the set of rules through which decisions are taken. This paper investigates the impact of different group decision-making approaches on the operating policies of a water resource. To achieve this, the water resource allocation problem is formulated as an optimization problem which seeks to maximize the aggregated satisfaction of various water users corresponding to different approaches to collective choice, namely the utilitarian and the egalitarian ones. The optimal operating policies are then used in simulation and compared. The concepts are illustrated with a multipurpose reservoir in Chile. The analysis of simulation results reveals that if this reservoir were to be managed by its water users, both approaches to collective choice would yield significantly different operating policies. The paper concludes that the transfer of management to water users must be carefully implemented if a reasonable trade-off between equity and efficiency is to be achieved.

scholarly journals Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 5297-5315
Author(s):  
Sara Suárez-Almiñana ◽  
Abel Solera ◽  
Jaime Madrigal ◽  
Joaquín Andreu ◽  
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Water Planning ◽  
Planning And Management ◽  
Total Capacity

Abstract. Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Júcar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (≈80 %) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document