scholarly journals Public Deficits in USMCA Economies During the COVID-19 Economic Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz ◽  
Nancy Ivonne Muller Durán ◽  
Josué Zavaleta González
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Economic Capacity

This paper aims to evaluate the fiscal policy implemented by the USMCA economies to deal with the COVID-19 economic crisis. We estimate the economic capacity (potential output) and the Cyclical Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CPB) of each of the scrutinized economies. Then we obtain the Cyclical Adjusted Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CAPB) as the difference between the Primary Balance (PB) and the CPB. Unlike previous CPB estimations, we obtain the potential output reference as the Economic Capacity methodology (Shaikh and Moudud, 2004), which overcome some alternative methodologies problems. According to our empirical analysis, an asymmetric fiscal policy stands across USMCA economies. Canada and the United States are using a countercyclical fiscal policy, while Mexico uses a procyclical one. Mexico should abandon its current fiscal policy, implement an alternative to support households and firms during crisis periods, and execute a progressive fiscal reform. Our paper's limitation is that we use PB and not its components to estimate the CPB; however, we use a more extended time series, contributing to obtaining more robust results.

Trends in U.S. Total Cloud Cover from a Homogeneity-Adjusted Dataset

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 4959-4969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Free ◽  
Bomin Sun
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Original Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Total Cloud Cover ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Military

Cloud cover data from ground-based weather observers can be an important source of climate information, but the record of such observations in the United States is disrupted by the introduction of automated observing systems and other artificial shifts that interfere with our ability to assess changes in cloudiness at climate time scales. A new dataset using 54 National Weather Service (NWS) and 101 military stations that continued to make human-augmented cloud observations after the 1990s has been adjusted using statistical changepoint detection and visual scrutiny. The adjustments substantially reduce the trends in U.S. mean total cloud cover while increasing the agreement between the cloud cover time series and those of physically related climate variables. For 1949–2009, the adjusted time series give a trend in U.S. mean total cloud of 0.11% ± 0.22% decade−1 for the military data, 0.55% ± 0.24% decade−1 for the NWS data, and 0.31% ± 0.22% decade−1 for the combined dataset. These trends are less than one-half of those in the original data. For 1976–2004, the original data give a significant increase but the adjusted data show an insignificant trend from −0.17% decade−1 (military stations) to 0.66% decade−1 (NWS stations). Trends have notable regional variability, with the northwest United States showing declining total cloud cover for all time periods examined, while trends for most other regions are positive. Differences between trends in the adjusted datasets from military stations and NWS stations may be rooted in the difference in data source and reflect the uncertainties in the homogeneity adjustment process.

scholarly journals Firearm Purchasing and Firearm Violence in the First Months of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia P. Schleimer ◽  
Christopher D. McCort ◽  
Veronica A. Pear ◽  
Aaron Shev ◽  
Elizabeth Tomsich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Firearm Violence ◽  
Background Check ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Nonfatal Injuries ◽  
Series Study

ABSTRACTImportanceFirearm violence is a significant public health and safety problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchases following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may increase rates of firearm violence.ObjectiveTo estimate the association between changes in firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic.DesignCross-sectional time series study. We estimate the difference between observed rates of firearm purchases and those predicted by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Using negative binomial models, we then estimate the association between excess firearm purchases and rates of interpersonal firearm violence within states, controlling for confounders.SettingThe 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Hawaii and Alaska are excluded due to missing or incomplete data.ExposureThe difference between observed and expected rates of firearm purchases in March through May 2020, approximated by National Instant Criminal Background Check System records.Main Outcome and MeasureFatal and nonfatal injuries from interpersonal firearm violence, recorded in the Gun Violence Archive.ResultsWe estimate that there were 2.1 million excess firearm purchases from March through May 2020—a 64.3% increase over expected volume, and an increase of 644.4 excess purchases per 100,000 population. We estimate a relative rate of death and injury from firearm violence of 1.015 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.005 to 1.025) for every 100 excess purchases per 100,000, in models that incorporate variation in purchasing across states and control for effects of the pandemic common to all states. This reflects an increase of 776 fatal and nonfatal injuries (95% CI: 216 to 1,335) over the number expected had no increase in purchasing occurred.Conclusions and RelevanceWe find a significant increase in firearm violence in the United States associated with the coronavirus pandemic-related surge in firearm purchasing. Our findings are consistent with existing research. Firearm violence prevention strategies may be particularly important during the pandemic.KEY POINTSQuestionIs the coronavirus-related surge in firearm purchasing associated with changes in rates of interpersonal firearm violence?FindingsThis cross-sectional time series study suggests the recent increase in firearm purchases—an estimated 2.1 million excess purchases nationally between March and May 2020—is associated with a statistically significant increase in firearm violence. We estimate an increase of 776 fatal and nonfatal injuries (95% CI: 216 to 1,335) in the US over the number expected for those months had there been no increase in purchasing.MeaningDuring the coronavirus pandemic, an acute increase in firearm access is associated with an increase in firearm violence.

scholarly journals The Effect of Massachusetts' Health Reform on Employer-Sponsored Insurance Premiums

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
John F Cogan ◽  
R. Glenn Hubbard ◽  
Daniel Kessler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Reform ◽  
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medical Expenditure ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Cost

In this paper, we use publicly available data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey - Insurance Component (MEPS-IC) to investigate the effect of Massachusetts' health reform plan on employer-sponsored insurance premiums. We tabulate premium growth for private-sector employers in Massachusetts and the United States as a whole for 2004 - 2008. We estimate the effect of the plan as the difference in premium growth between Massachusetts and the United States between 2006 and 2008—that is, before versus after the plan—over and above the difference in premium growth for 2004 to 2006. We find that health reform in Massachusetts increased single-coverage employer-sponsored insurance premiums by about 6 percent, or $262. Although our research design has important limitations, it does suggest that policy makers should be concerned about the consequences of health reform for the cost of private insurance.

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