Trends in U.S. Total Cloud Cover from a Homogeneity-Adjusted Dataset

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 4959-4969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Free ◽  
Bomin Sun
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Original Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Total Cloud Cover ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Military

Cloud cover data from ground-based weather observers can be an important source of climate information, but the record of such observations in the United States is disrupted by the introduction of automated observing systems and other artificial shifts that interfere with our ability to assess changes in cloudiness at climate time scales. A new dataset using 54 National Weather Service (NWS) and 101 military stations that continued to make human-augmented cloud observations after the 1990s has been adjusted using statistical changepoint detection and visual scrutiny. The adjustments substantially reduce the trends in U.S. mean total cloud cover while increasing the agreement between the cloud cover time series and those of physically related climate variables. For 1949–2009, the adjusted time series give a trend in U.S. mean total cloud of 0.11% ± 0.22% decade−1 for the military data, 0.55% ± 0.24% decade−1 for the NWS data, and 0.31% ± 0.22% decade−1 for the combined dataset. These trends are less than one-half of those in the original data. For 1976–2004, the original data give a significant increase but the adjusted data show an insignificant trend from −0.17% decade−1 (military stations) to 0.66% decade−1 (NWS stations). Trends have notable regional variability, with the northwest United States showing declining total cloud cover for all time periods examined, while trends for most other regions are positive. Differences between trends in the adjusted datasets from military stations and NWS stations may be rooted in the difference in data source and reflect the uncertainties in the homogeneity adjustment process.

scholarly journals Public Deficits in USMCA Economies During the COVID-19 Economic Crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Juan Alberto Vázquez Muñoz ◽  
Nancy Ivonne Muller Durán ◽  
Josué Zavaleta González
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Reform ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Economic Capacity

This paper aims to evaluate the fiscal policy implemented by the USMCA economies to deal with the COVID-19 economic crisis. We estimate the economic capacity (potential output) and the Cyclical Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CPB) of each of the scrutinized economies. Then we obtain the Cyclical Adjusted Primary Balance as a percentage of GDP (CAPB) as the difference between the Primary Balance (PB) and the CPB. Unlike previous CPB estimations, we obtain the potential output reference as the Economic Capacity methodology (Shaikh and Moudud, 2004), which overcome some alternative methodologies problems. According to our empirical analysis, an asymmetric fiscal policy stands across USMCA economies. Canada and the United States are using a countercyclical fiscal policy, while Mexico uses a procyclical one. Mexico should abandon its current fiscal policy, implement an alternative to support households and firms during crisis periods, and execute a progressive fiscal reform. Our paper's limitation is that we use PB and not its components to estimate the CPB; however, we use a more extended time series, contributing to obtaining more robust results.

scholarly journals Firearm Purchasing and Firearm Violence in the First Months of the Coronavirus Pandemic in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia P. Schleimer ◽  
Christopher D. McCort ◽  
Veronica A. Pear ◽  
Aaron Shev ◽  
Elizabeth Tomsich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Firearm Violence ◽  
Background Check ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Nonfatal Injuries ◽  
Series Study

ABSTRACTImportanceFirearm violence is a significant public health and safety problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchases following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may increase rates of firearm violence.ObjectiveTo estimate the association between changes in firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic.DesignCross-sectional time series study. We estimate the difference between observed rates of firearm purchases and those predicted by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models. Using negative binomial models, we then estimate the association between excess firearm purchases and rates of interpersonal firearm violence within states, controlling for confounders.SettingThe 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Hawaii and Alaska are excluded due to missing or incomplete data.ExposureThe difference between observed and expected rates of firearm purchases in March through May 2020, approximated by National Instant Criminal Background Check System records.Main Outcome and MeasureFatal and nonfatal injuries from interpersonal firearm violence, recorded in the Gun Violence Archive.ResultsWe estimate that there were 2.1 million excess firearm purchases from March through May 2020—a 64.3% increase over expected volume, and an increase of 644.4 excess purchases per 100,000 population. We estimate a relative rate of death and injury from firearm violence of 1.015 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.005 to 1.025) for every 100 excess purchases per 100,000, in models that incorporate variation in purchasing across states and control for effects of the pandemic common to all states. This reflects an increase of 776 fatal and nonfatal injuries (95% CI: 216 to 1,335) over the number expected had no increase in purchasing occurred.Conclusions and RelevanceWe find a significant increase in firearm violence in the United States associated with the coronavirus pandemic-related surge in firearm purchasing. Our findings are consistent with existing research. Firearm violence prevention strategies may be particularly important during the pandemic.KEY POINTSQuestionIs the coronavirus-related surge in firearm purchasing associated with changes in rates of interpersonal firearm violence?FindingsThis cross-sectional time series study suggests the recent increase in firearm purchases—an estimated 2.1 million excess purchases nationally between March and May 2020—is associated with a statistically significant increase in firearm violence. We estimate an increase of 776 fatal and nonfatal injuries (95% CI: 216 to 1,335) in the US over the number expected for those months had there been no increase in purchasing.MeaningDuring the coronavirus pandemic, an acute increase in firearm access is associated with an increase in firearm violence.

The Washington Consensus, liberal ideas and terms of the military-technological policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2103-2123
Author(s):  
V.L. Gladyshevskii ◽  
E.V. Gorgola ◽  
D.V. Khudyakov
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Internal Quality ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Active Involvement ◽  
Military Industrial Complex ◽  
Industrial Complexes ◽  
The Military

Subject. In the twentieth century, the most developed countries formed a permanent military economy represented by military-industrial complexes, which began to perform almost a system-forming role in national economies, acting as the basis for ensuring national security, and being an independent military and political force. The United States is pursuing a pronounced militaristic policy, has almost begun to unleash a new "cold war" against Russia and to unwind the arms race, on the one hand, trying to exhaust the enemy's economy, on the other hand, to reindustrialize its own economy, relying on the military-industrial complex. Objectives. We examine the evolution, main features and operational distinctions of the military-industrial complex of the United States and that of the Russian Federation, revealing sources of their military-technological and military-economic advancement in comparison with other countries. Methods. The study uses military-economic analysis, scientific and methodological apparatus of modern institutionalism. Results. Regulating the national economy and constant monitoring of budget financing contribute to the rise of military production, especially in the context of austerity and crisis phenomena, which, in particular, justifies the irrelevance of institutionalists' conclusions about increasing transaction costs and intensifying centralization in the industrial production management with respect to to the military-industrial complex. Conclusions. Proving to be much more efficient, the domestic military-industrial complex, without having such access to finance as the U.S. military monopolies, should certainly evolve and progress, strengthening the coordination, manageability, planning, maximum cost reduction, increasing labor productivity, and implementing an internal quality system with the active involvement of the State and its resources.

Health and Service-related Impact of Sexual and Stalking Victimization During United States Military Service on LGBT Service Members

2020 ◽  
pp. 088626052097031
Author(s):  
Cary Leonard Klemmer ◽  
Ashley C. Schuyler ◽  
Mary Rose Mamey ◽  
Sheree M. Schrager ◽  
Carl Andrew Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Service ◽  
The United States ◽  
Active Duty ◽  
Service Members ◽  
United States Military ◽  
Service Outcomes ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
The Military ◽  
Stalking Victimization

Prior research among military personnel has indicated that sexual harassment, stalking, and sexual assault during military service are related to negative health sequelae. However, research specific to LGBT U.S. service members is limited. The current study aimed to explore the health, service utilization, and service-related impact of stalking and sexual victimization experiences in a sample of active-duty LGBT U.S. service members ( N = 248). Respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit study participants. U.S. service members were eligible to participate if they were 18 years or older and active-duty members of the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, U.S. Marine Corps, or U.S. Air Force. This study included a sizeable portion of transgender service members ( N = 58, 23.4%). Sociodemographic characteristics, characteristics of military service, health, and sexual and stalking victimization in the military were assessed. Regression was used to examine relationships between health and service outcomes and sexual and stalking victimization during military service. Final adjusted models showed that experiencing multiple forms of victimization in the military increased the odds of visiting a mental health clinician and having elevated somatic symptoms, posttraumatic stress disorder symptomatology, anxiety, and suicidality. Sexual and stalking victimization during U.S. military service was statistically significantly related to the mental and physical health of LGBT U.S. service members. Interventions to reduce victimization experiences and support LGBT U.S. service members who experience these types of violence are indicated. Research that examines the role of LGBT individuals’ experiences and organizational and peer factors, including social support, leadership characteristics, and institutional policies in the United States military is needed.

Rethinking U.S. National Security after Covid19

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda J. Bilmes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Federal Spending ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Military

AbstractThe United States has traditionally defined national security in the context of military threats and addressed them through military spending. This article considers whether the United States will rethink this mindset following the disruption of the Covid19 pandemic, during which a non-military actor has inflicted widespread harm. The author argues that the US will not redefine national security explicitly due to the importance of the military in the US economy and the bipartisan trend toward growing the military budget since 2001. However, the pandemic has opened the floodgates with respect to federal spending. This shift will enable the next administration to allocate greater resources to non-military threats such as climate change and emerging diseases, even as it continues to increase defense spending to address traditionally defined military threats such as hypersonics and cyberterrorism.

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