Individual-level Evaluation of the Exposure Notification Cascade in the SwissCovid Digital Proximity Tracing App: An Observational Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tala Ballouz ◽  
Dominik Menges ◽  
Hélène E Aschmann ◽  
Ruedi Jung ◽  
Anja Domenghino ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Digital proximity tracing (DPT) aims to complement manual contact tracing (MCT) in identifying exposed contacts and preventing further transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. While several DPT apps, including SwissCovid, have shown to have promising effects on mitigating the pandemic, several challenges have impeded them from fully achieving the desired results. A key question now relates to how the effectiveness of DPT can be improved which requires better understanding of factors influencing its processes. OBJECTIVE In this study, we aimed to provide a detailed examination of the exposure notification (EN) cascade and to evaluate potential contextual influences for successful receipt of EN and subsequent actions taken by cases and contacts in different exposure settings. METHODS We used data from 285 pairs of SARS-CoV-2-infected cases and their contacts within an observational cohort study of cases and contacts identified by MCT and enrolled between 06 August and 17 January 2021 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We surveyed participants with electronic questionnaires. Data were summarized descriptively and stratified by exposure setting. RESULTS We found that only 60% of contacts using the app whose corresponding case reported to have triggered the EN also received one. Among those, 23% received the EN before being contacted by MCT. Compared to those receiving an EN after MCT, we observed that a higher proportion of contacts receiving an EN before MCT were exposed in non-household settings (67% versus 56%) and their corresponding cases had more frequently reported mild to moderate symptoms (78% versus 69%). Among the 18 contacts receiving an EN before MCT, 14 (78%) took preventive measures: 12 (67%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 7 (39%) called the SwissCovid Infoline. In non-household settings, the proportion of contacts taking preventive actions after receiving an EN was higher compared to same-household settings (82% versus 67%). One in eleven ENs received before MCT led to the identification of a SARS-CoV-2-infected case by prompting the contact to get tested. This corresponds to one in 85 exposures of a contact to a case in a non-household setting, in which both were app users and the case triggered the EN. CONCLUSIONS Our descriptive evaluation of the DPT notification cascade provides further evidence that DPT is an important complementary tool in pandemic mitigation, especially in non-household exposure settings. However, the effect of DPT apps can only be exerted if code generation processes are efficient and exposed contacts are willing to undertake preventive actions. This highlights the need to focus efforts on keeping barriers to efficient code generation as low as possible and promoting not only app adoption but also compliance with the recommended measures upon EN. CLINICALTRIAL ISRCTN14990068

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
Nicholas H. Ogden ◽  
Jianhong Wu

We propose a deterministic model capturing essential features of contact tracing as part of public health non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate an outbreak of an infectious disease. By incorporating a mechanistic formulation of the processes at the individual level, we obtain an integral equation (delayed in calendar time and advanced in time since infection) for the probability that an infected individual is detected and isolated at any point in time. This is then coupled with a renewal equation for the total incidence to form a closed system describing the transmission dynamics involving contact tracing. We define and calculate basic and effective reproduction numbers in terms of pathogen characteristics and contact tracing implementation constraints. When applied to the case of SARS-CoV-2, our results show that only combinations of diagnosis of symptomatic infections and contact tracing that are almost perfect in terms of speed and coverage can attain control, unless additional measures to reduce overall community transmission are in place. Under constraints on the testing or tracing capacity, a temporary interruption of contact tracing may, depending on the overall growth rate and prevalence of the infection, lead to an irreversible loss of control even when the epidemic was previously contained.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionne M. Aleman ◽  
Benjamin Z. Tham ◽  
Sean J. Wagner ◽  
Justin Semelhago ◽  
Asghar Mohammadi ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundTo prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Newfoundland & Labrador (NL), NL implemented a wide travel ban in May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of this travel ban using a customized agent-based simulation (ABS).MethodsWe built an individual-level ABS to simulate the movements and behaviors of every member of the NL population, including arriving and departing travellers. The model considers individual properties (spatial location, age, comorbidities) and movements between environments, as well as age-based disease transmission with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic transmission rates. We examine low, medium, and high travel volume, traveller infection rates, and traveller quarantine compliance rates to determine the effect of travellers on COVID spread, and the ability of contact tracing to contain outbreaks.ResultsInfected travellers increased COVID cases by 2-52x (8-96x) times and peak hospitalizations by 2-49x (8-94x), with (without) contact tracing. Although contact tracing was highly effective at reducing spread, it was insufficient to stop outbreaks caused by travellers in even the best-case scenario, and the likelihood of exceeding contact tracing capacity was a concern in most scenarios. Quarantine compliance had only a small impact on COVID spread; travel volume and infection rate drove spread.InterpretationNL’s travel ban was likely a critically important intervention to prevent COVID spread. Even a small number of infected travellers can play a significant role in introducing new chains of transmission, resulting in exponential community spread and significant increases in hospitalizations, while outpacing contact tracing capabilities. With the presence of more transmissible variants, e.g., the UK variant, prevention of imported cases is even more critical.


Author(s):  
M. Strik ◽  
J. van Meerbergen ◽  
A. Timmer ◽  
J. Jess ◽  
S. Note

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel de la Varga ◽  
Alexander Schaaf ◽  
Florian Wellmann

Abstract. The representation of subsurface structures is an essential aspect of a wide variety of geoscientific investigations and applications, ranging from geofluid reservoir studies, over raw material investigations, to geosequestration, as well as many branches of geoscientific research and applications in geological surveys. A wide range of methods exist to generate geological models. However, the powerful methods are behind a paywall in expensive commercial packages. We present here a full open-source geomodeling method, based on an implicit potential-field interpolation approach. The interpolation algorithm is comparable to implementations in commercial packages and capable of constructing complex full 3-D geological models, including fault networks, fault–surface interactions, unconformities and dome structures. This algorithm is implemented in the programming language Python, making use of a highly efficient underlying library for efficient code generation (Theano) that enables a direct execution on GPUs. The functionality can be separated into the core aspects required to generate 3-D geological models and additional assets for advanced scientific investigations. These assets provide the full power behind our approach, as they enable the link to machine-learning and Bayesian inference frameworks and thus a path to stochastic geological modeling and inversions. In addition, we provide methods to analyze model topology and to compute gravity fields on the basis of the geological models and assigned density values. In summary, we provide a basis for open scientific research using geological models, with the aim to foster reproducible research in the field of geomodeling.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Sandipan Bhattacharjee ◽  
Aaron Metzger ◽  
Cindy Tworek ◽  
Wenhui Wei ◽  
Xiaoyun Pan ◽  
...  

This study estimated excess home healthcare use and expenditures among elderly Medicare beneficiaries (age ≥ 65 years) with Parkinson’s disease (PD) compared to those without PD and analyzed the extent to which predisposing, enabling, need factors, personal health choice, and external environment contribute to the excess home healthcare use and expenditures among individuals with PD. A retrospective, observational, cohort study design using Medicare 5% sample claims for years 2006-2007 was used for this study. Logistic regressions and Ordinary Least Squares regressions were used to assess the association of PD with home health use and expenditures, respectively. Postregression nonlinear and linear decomposition techniques were used to understand the extent to which differences in home healthcare use and expenditures among elderly Medicare beneficiaries with and without PD can be explained by individual-level factors. Elderly Medicare beneficiaries with PD had higher home health use and expenditures compared to those without PD. 27.5% and 18% of the gap in home health use and expenditures, respectively, were explained by differences in characteristics between the PD and no PD groups. A large portion of the differences in home healthcare use and expenditures remained unexplained.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Llopard ◽  
Christian Fabre ◽  
Albert Cohen

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