scholarly journals On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 167-178
Author(s):  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze ◽  
Noureen Siddiq
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Contraction And Expansion ◽  
Unemployment Problem

The central aim of this paper is to establish the asymmetric effects of cyclical output on South Africa's unemployment rate. To achieve this objective, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is applied on quarterly data spanning the periods 1994Q1-2017Q4. For every 10% economic contraction and expansion respectively according to the results, the response of the labour market is asymmetric in the long-run in that it loses more workers during contraction (10.3%) than it employs during recoveries (8%) supporting the labour market hysteresis. This is particularly true post the 2009 Global crisis suggesting that firms might have become more risk-averse to short-lived recoveries in recent years. The weak response of the labour market during expansions supports IMF’s recent proposition that economic recovery alone may not be enough to address South Africa's unemployment problem. 

scholarly journals The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to Analyze Soybean Prices in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 05035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahjus Ekananda ◽  
T. Suryanto
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Volume ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Lag Model

The main objective of this study was to observe factors that affecting domestic soybean prices, including government intervention through BULOG. By using Bound Testing Cointegration method with ARDL approach. In the short term the world soybean price variables in the t-period and exchange rate affect the domestic soybean prices positively and significantly. The variable volume of soybean imports, GDP, and the role of BULOG as sole importer in the t-period does not affect the domestic soybean price significantly. In the long run, the t-period import tariff has a negative and significant effect.

scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Poverty and labour market institutions in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-290
Author(s):  
Giorgio Liotti ◽  
Rosaria Canale
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Labour Market Regulation ◽  
Lag Model

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of flexibility in the labour market on workers? monetary poverty in 15 European countries in the time span 2005-2016. We estimate how the labour market regulation index (LMRI) affects workers? monetary poverty through two empirical exercises: in the first one, we use an autoregressive distributed lag model and, in the second one, the generalized method of moments model. The results suggest that greater flexibility of the labour market is positively correlated with greater monetary poverty among employed people. The result does not change significantly when introducing the effect of the economic crisis and the interaction effect between the economic crisis and the LMRI. Therefore, we conclude that the outcome should be considered to be noticeable whatever the macroeconomic conditions occurring in the labour market.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINANT PROFITABILITAS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2011-2018 PENDEKATAN AUTO REGRESIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102
Author(s):  
Gita Martha Permatasari ◽  
Dian Filianti
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lag Model

This study aims to determine the influence of the Macro Economy, namely GDP and Inflation and Bank Characteristics, namely CAR, FDR, NPF, BOPO and Size on the Profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry in Indonesia in the 2011 - 2018 Period. The data used are secondary data, namely quarterly data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id), Badan Pusat Statistik (www.bps.go.id), and Statistik Perbankan Syariah reports published by OJK (www.ojk.go.id). The sampling method used was purposive sampling method. The analysis technique uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model with statistical tools EViews 9. The results of the study show that in the short term of the GDP, Inflation, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the CAR, FDR, NPF variables have no significant effect on profitability of Islamic Banking Industry. Meanwhile in the long run of the GDP, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the Inflation, CAR, FDR, NPF variable does not significantly influence the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry.Keywords: Profitability, Sharia Bank, ARDL

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

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