scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Tourism Demand in India: Unraveling the Asymmetric Relationship

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (7) ◽  
pp. 1282-1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Debdatta Pal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study explores the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on tourism demand in India from January 2006 to April 2018. Tourism demand is captured from a twin perspective—quantity and value. While quantity is represented by foreign tourist arrival in India, earnings from foreign tourists are used to represent value. The study is unique from a methodological point of view as it makes the first ever application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), in the tourism demand literature to capture nonlinearity simultaneously in the short- as well as long-run. Results of our analysis show that tourism demand in India responds asymmetrically to both nominal and real exchange rate volatility. Also, the long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty are shown to be more damaging than the short-run effects. Our findings are fairly robust to alternative specifications.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 167-178
Author(s):  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze ◽  
Noureen Siddiq
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Contraction And Expansion ◽  
Unemployment Problem

The central aim of this paper is to establish the asymmetric effects of cyclical output on South Africa's unemployment rate. To achieve this objective, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is applied on quarterly data spanning the periods 1994Q1-2017Q4. For every 10% economic contraction and expansion respectively according to the results, the response of the labour market is asymmetric in the long-run in that it loses more workers during contraction (10.3%) than it employs during recoveries (8%) supporting the labour market hysteresis. This is particularly true post the 2009 Global crisis suggesting that firms might have become more risk-averse to short-lived recoveries in recent years. The weak response of the labour market during expansions supports IMF’s recent proposition that economic recovery alone may not be enough to address South Africa's unemployment problem. 

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

Does Globalisation Promote Economic Output in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 002190962199085
Author(s):  
Huiping Dong ◽  
Yifei Cai ◽  
Xing Shi
Keyword(s):  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Sub Saharan

This study aims to investigate whether globalisation promotes economic output in Sub-Saharan African countries in both the short run and the long run. Based on the latest version of the KOF globalisation index, we employ a newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse this question. Compared to the traditional autoregressive distributed lag model, which ignores the degenerate cases, the new approach could avoid spurious cointegration. Results show that globalisation and economic output are positively correlated for most Sub-Saharan African countries, while the causal effect cannot be concluded except for a couple of exceptions. This finding implies that globalisation cannot guarantee an increase in economic output in the long run for most Sub-Saharan African countries. The Granger causality test shows that globalisation leads to economic output for Burundi, Gabon, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia in the short run. Conversely, economic output leads to globalisation for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. For Senegal, globalisation and economic output mutually determine each other and therefore form a positive spiral development path. Policymakers should be aware of the specific features of different economies in making sound globalisation policies to avoid the underlying adverse effects of global integration.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
Le Ma ◽  
◽  
Chunlu Liu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
House Price Indices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

The study described in this paper focuses on testing the short-run and long-run relationships between house price and consumer price indices in Australia¡¦s capital cities from 1998 to 2008. The autoregressive distributed lag model is adopted to obtain the estimates of the short-run relationships, while the error correction model is used to investigate the long-run relationships. The t-statistic is used to compute the significance of these relationships. The research results give no evidence that house price indices are correlated with consumer price indices in the short run. However, the long-run relationships between house and consumer price indices exist in most of the cities.

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