Prediction of Soybean Price Trend via a Synthesis Method With Multistage Model

Soybean is an important crop, so it is very important to forecast soybean price trend, which can stabilize the market. This paper presents a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model (SMwMM) in order to identify and forecast soybean price trend in China. In the previous work,Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-based Clustering(TICC) has been applied to cluster the prices of four variables. The research have found that there are four patterns in soybean market price, which could be explained by economic theory. This paper consider four patterns as market risk levels. Based on the clustering results, we used Long short-term memory(LSTM) to forecast the prices of these four variables. Multivariate long short-term memory(MLSTM) is then used to classify soybean price to determine level of risk . Experimental results show that :(1)The LSTM model has achieved great fitting effect and high prediction accuracy;(2) The performance of MLSTM-FCN and MALSTM-FCN is better than that of LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN. Furthermore,MALSTM-FCN had the higher accuracy than MLSTM-FCN, which reached 76.39%.

Prediction of Soybean Price Trend via a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model

Soybean is an important crop, so it is very important to forecast soybean price trend, which can stabilize the market. This paper presents a Synthesis Method with Multistage Model (SMwMM) in order to identify and forecast soybean price trend in China. In the previous work,Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-based Clustering(TICC) has been applied to cluster the prices of four variables. The research have found that there are four patterns in soybean market price, which could be explained by economic theory. This paper consider four patterns as market risk levels. Based on the clustering results, we used Long short-term memory(LSTM) to forecast the prices of these four variables. Multivariate long short-term memory(MLSTM) is then used to classify soybean price to determine level of risk . Experimental results show that :(1)The LSTM model has achieved great fitting effect and high prediction accuracy;(2) The performance of MLSTM-FCN and MALSTM-FCN is better than that of LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN. Furthermore,MALSTM-FCN had the higher accuracy than MLSTM-FCN, which reached 76.39%.

Derivatives or climate insurance? Risk management tools for a soybean farmer in Brazil

This paper aims to analyze whether there is a difference between the cost/benefit of climate risk reduction and cost/benefit of soybean price in Palotina, Paraná, Brazil. The data were collected from bibliography, official and private documents. Climate data were analyzed based on the releases content. The methodology to analyze de future market data was the same as the B3. Options were analyzed as Black & Scholes model. Also, this paper developed the Leismann & Bortoluzzi index to analyze the protections cost/benefit. To compare mitigation costs, there were used the t student test. Limitations were about the Black & Scholes model, which does not consider subjective variables. Cost/benefit index of price protections were compared with the climate insurance index in order to test if there was a statistical difference between them. All tests allowed to infer that the indices are statistically different. This study concluded that climate and price insurance are excellent tools for rural enterprise risk management, and there was significant evidence to infer that the protections are feasible. Or rather, that the farmer is exposed to both types of risk and that the forms of mitigation are satisfactory in both cases.

Financial Feasibility and Competitiveness Levels of Soybean Varieties in Rice-Based Cropping System of Indonesia

This research was conducted to determine the financial feasibility of growing soybean varieties and their competitiveness in the rice-based cropping system of Indonesia. The research was conducted at two locations in 2020. The results showed that the use of improved varieties of soybean yielded 2.24 t/ha and 2.09 t/ha, which was higher than using local (non-improved) varieties. The use of improved varieties was financially feasible with Revenue Cost (R/C) ratios of 1.88–1.98 and Benefit Cost (B/C) ratios of 0.88–0.98. The competitiveness of soybeans in Mojokerto and Pasuruan was lower compared to maize and mungbean. Soybean could compete with competing crops if the productivity and price were higher than the current conditions. To be able to compete with maize, the soybean productivity should be 5.14–5.22 t/ha if the current soybean price per kg is IDR 7200 (about US $ 0.51). To compete with mungbean, the soybean productivity should reach 3.05 t/ha with the current price per kg of IDR 7200 (about US $ 0.51). When measured by the price level, to be able to compete with maize, the soybean selling price per kg should be IDR 14,428–IDR 14,893 (about USD 1.06) with a productivity level of 2.24 t/ha.

Profitability of fungicide applications for managing soybean rust in scenarios of variable efficacy and costs: a stochastic simulation

Soybean rust (SBR) in Brazil is controlled with fungicides, which have shown variable, eventually declining, efficacy. A Monte Carlo simulation framework was proposed to approximate profitability depending on the fungicide program's efficacy and total cost. Probability distributions were fitted to slopes and intercepts of the disease-yield relationship and severity in the untreated plots reported in the literature, as well as historical records of soybean price. Simulations of disease reduction conditioned to predefined control efficacy and total application costs were split into scenarios that combined two categories of severity (high and low) and two attainable yield classes (high and low). These categories were defined based on the median of severity (57.8%) and median of the intercept (yield when severity is zero, 2995.1 kg/ha). Probability matrices were constructed relating fungicide efficacy and costs. A higher frequency of break-even events occurred in scenarios of high disease pressure and higher yield. Yearly simulations, starting with 79.4% efficacy, assuming two rates of decline determined for tebuconazole (high decline), showed that the program may remain profitable during the first 5 to 7 years of use. Contrasting to cyproconazole, a fungicide that would be profitable during the entire decade. These simulations can be useful to aid in decision-making when planning fungicide programs. This approach can be adapted to other diseases of soybean and other crops as long as damage functions are available. An interactive web app was developed to perform the simulations accessible at alvesks.shinyapps.io/rusty-profits/.

An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007-2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.

Analysis on Efficiency and Influencing Factors of New Soybean Producing Farms

The efficiency of new soybean producers is of great importance to the agricultural development of China. Based on the survey data of some counties (cities) in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the efficiency of new soybean producers in these regions is calculated by means of the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. Then, the Tobit model is used to select relevant explanatory variables to study the factors affecting the production efficiency, and relevant conclusions and suggestions are put forward. The results show that (1) in 2017, the new soybean producers’ average technical efficiency of soybean production in the research samples was 0.618, of which the average pure technical efficiency was 0.680 and the average scale efficiency was 0.872; (2) factors such as the degree of education, the soybean planting area, the degree of mechanization, and the soybean sales channel have positive impacts on the efficiency of new soybean producers, while the ones such as the stability of the soybean price, the difficulty in obtaining soybean market information, and the implementation of the soybean subsidy policy have negative impacts.

KONTRIBUSI USAHA TUMPANGSARI KEDELAI ERHADAP PENDAPATAN KELUARGA PETANI KEDELAI DI SENTRA PRODUKSI JAWA BARAT

ABSTRAK Kedelai merupakan bahan pangan yang menduduki posisi strategis, ketergantungan impor kedelai berdampak kurang baik untuk menjaga keamanan pangan, karena impor kedelai menyedot devisa negara, dan adanya kerawanan pasokan jika penurunan nilai tukar rupiah, akibatnya berdampak pada kesetabilan harga kedelai nasional. Oleh karena itu diperlukan upaya megembangkan kedelai lokal yang didukung oleh petani. Tujuan penelitin ini untuk menganalisis peranan usahatani kedelai tumpangsari terhadap pendapatan keluarga tani. Penelitian dilaksanakan di sentra produksi kedelai Jawa Barat. Metoda yang digunakan adalah metoda survey, data yang digunakan terdiri data primer (dari petani) dan data secunder. Data dianalisis menggunakan analisis matematik dan deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan, usahatani kedelai tumpangsari memberikan kontribusi cukup besar terhadap pendapatan petani. Selain itu tanaman tumpangsari (non kedelai) memberikan pendapatan tambahan, pendapatan berkelanjutan dan turut menjaga kegagalan usahatani. Kata kunci: kedelai, tumpangsari, pendapatan, Jawa Barat. ABSTRACT Soybean is a food that occupies a strategic position, dependence on soybean imports has a bad impact on maintaining food security, because soybean imports suck up foreign exchange, and the supply of insecurity if the rupiah exchange rate decreases, consequently impacts on national soybean price stability. Therefore, an effort is needed to develop local soybeans supported by farmers. The purpose of this research is to analyze the role of intercropping soybean farming on the income of farmer families. The research was conducted at the West Java soybean production center. The method used is the survey method, the data used consists of primary data (from farmers) and secondary data. Data were analyzed using mathematical and descriptive analysis. The results showed that intercropping soybean farming contributed significantly to farmers' income. In addition, intercropping (non-soybean) crops provides additional income, sustainable income and helps maintain farm failure. Keywords: soybean, policulture, West Java Income