COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

Capital Market Performance and Bangladesh’s Economy: An Empirical Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092098224
Author(s):  
Md. Shakhaowat Hossin ◽  
Md. Kaisar Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Lag Model

This article aims to analyse the effect of capital market performance on Bangladesh’s economy using the data of market capitalization, stock turnover and gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2001 to 2018. This study employed unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, autoregressive distributed lag model, non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, Granger causality test and Toda–Yamamato Granger non-causality test to examine this effect. The result of the vector error correction model revealed the existence of a long-run association between market capitalization and stock turnover as independent variables with GDP. Again, the results of autoregressive distributed lag model and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model also showed that there exists a significant positive relationship between the stock market and GDP of Bangladesh. Finally, Toda–Yamamato Granger non-causality test confirms that there is a unidirectional causality running from the capital market to GDP.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The Nexus Between Taxation, Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa. A fresh evidence from combined cointegration test

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delani Moyo ◽  
Ahmed Samour ◽  
Turgut Tursoy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between taxation, government expenditure and economic growth. is a widely debated issue in the literature. The aim of this research is to present a fresh evidence from the nexus of taxation, government expenditure and economic growth in for the period 1991-2018 in South Africa, using recently developed combined co-integration test. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model(ARDL) is utilized to examine coefficients between the variables in the short and long-run The newly advanced Bayer-Hacks (BH) combined co-integration approach is employed so as to verify the ARDL bounds result. The empirical results from ARDL model revealed that there is a positive and significant relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in both short and long run. In addition, the study shows that tax revenue has a significant positive relationship with the economic growth. Therefore, levels of taxation and government expenditure are favorable to the growth of economy in South Africa. The research proposed that decision makers in South Africa should pay more attention on Taxation and government expenditure policies and the gains from economic growth such as channel much of its expenditure towards the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which have great potentials of increasing the supply of the products. Which in turn leads to reduce prices and increase in the rates of employment. This would, also make the country’s exports prices competitive.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINANT PROFITABILITAS PADA INDUSTRI PERBANKAN SYARIAH PERIODE 2011-2018 PENDEKATAN AUTO REGRESIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102
Author(s):  
Gita Martha Permatasari ◽  
Dian Filianti
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Lag Model

This study aims to determine the influence of the Macro Economy, namely GDP and Inflation and Bank Characteristics, namely CAR, FDR, NPF, BOPO and Size on the Profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry in Indonesia in the 2011 - 2018 Period. The data used are secondary data, namely quarterly data obtained from the official website of Bank Indonesia (www.bi.go.id), Badan Pusat Statistik (www.bps.go.id), and Statistik Perbankan Syariah reports published by OJK (www.ojk.go.id). The sampling method used was purposive sampling method. The analysis technique uses the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model with statistical tools EViews 9. The results of the study show that in the short term of the GDP, Inflation, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the CAR, FDR, NPF variables have no significant effect on profitability of Islamic Banking Industry. Meanwhile in the long run of the GDP, BOPO, Size variables, they have a significant effect on the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry and the Inflation, CAR, FDR, NPF variable does not significantly influence the profitability of the Sharia Banking Industry.Keywords: Profitability, Sharia Bank, ARDL

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 167-178
Author(s):  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze ◽  
Noureen Siddiq
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Contraction And Expansion ◽  
Unemployment Problem

The central aim of this paper is to establish the asymmetric effects of cyclical output on South Africa's unemployment rate. To achieve this objective, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is applied on quarterly data spanning the periods 1994Q1-2017Q4. For every 10% economic contraction and expansion respectively according to the results, the response of the labour market is asymmetric in the long-run in that it loses more workers during contraction (10.3%) than it employs during recoveries (8%) supporting the labour market hysteresis. This is particularly true post the 2009 Global crisis suggesting that firms might have become more risk-averse to short-lived recoveries in recent years. The weak response of the labour market during expansions supports IMF’s recent proposition that economic recovery alone may not be enough to address South Africa's unemployment problem. 

Modelling labour demand in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Kamila Radlińska ◽  
Krzysztof Jaros ◽  
Agnieszka Jakubowska ◽  
Anna Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Production Approach

The aim of the paper is to construct a long-term model of labour demand in Poland, in which the explanatory variables are the average gross salary and gross value added. Additionally, the authors attempt to detect labour hoarding. The study adopted the production approach, which used autoregressive distributed lag model with an ARDL-ECM error correction mechanism. The model parametres were estimated on the basis of quarterly data on the average number of persons employed, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added, all of which related to the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2018. The data used in the study came from Statistics Poland publications. The proposed approach estimated the actual demand for labour. In the analysed period, a long-term relationship between the average employment, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added was observed. Employment was decreasing as the average salary was growing, and its increase was connected with the production growth. Moreover, short-term deviations of the value of the actual employment from the value of employment estimated by the model were observed on the labour market, which indicates labour hoarding could have been taking place. However, due to an insufficient number of observations, the occurrence of this phenomenon could not be fully confirmed.

Wagner’s Hypothesis: An Empirical Verification

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masudul Hasan Adil ◽  
Aadil Ahmad Ganaie ◽  
B. Kamaiah
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study explores the relationship between public expenditure (PE) and gross domestic product (GDP) to verify whether the Wagner’s hypothesis holds good in the Indian context. We cover the period from 1970 to 2013 and use econometric tools like Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) test to check the long-run and causal relationship among the variables. The results of the bounds test suggest that there exists cointegration between PE and GDP, but we found weak evidence for Wagner’s hypothesis as well.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document