scholarly journals Investment decisions within the context of financialization: Cointegration evidence from the UK economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Joseph Nellis
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Instrumental Role

Within the context of financialization, this empirical study sheds some light on the distributional aspects of the existing intra-capitalist conflict between financial and industrial capital and its concomitant impact, via investment, on the macroeconomy. In doing so, bounds-test cointegration techniques in conjunction with Granger causality tests provide the econometric framework upon which the respective models are tested. Annual time series were used spanning from 1971 to 2012, for the UK. The empirical evidence is in line with the theoretical exposition insofar as investment decisions by industry are significantly conditioned by industrial profit. Moreover, the distribution of profits between industry and finance, in conjunction with policy objectives, appears to be playing an instrumental role in affecting capital accumulation.

scholarly journals Non-linear Causality Between Stock Returns And Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence From The US And The UK

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Esin Cakan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dynamic Relationships

This study analyzes the dynamic relationships between inflation uncertainty and stock returns by employing the linear and non-linear Granger causality tests for the US and the UK. Using GARCH model to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty, it does not have a predictive power for stock returns, as predicted by Friedman, and it does not support the opportunistic central bank hypothesis suggested by Cukierman-Meltzer. However, the findings from non-linear Granger causality put forth that there is a bi-directional non-linear predictive power between these variables. Stock market is used as a hedge against inflation uncertainty.

TOURISM AND GROWTH IN SINGAPORE: NEW EXTENSION FROM BOUNDS TEST TO LEVEL RELATIONSHIPS AND CONDITIONAL GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (03) ◽  
pp. 441-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
SALIH TURAN KATIRCIOǦLU
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper empirically investigates the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis in the case of Singapore by employing the bounds test to cointegration, error correction models and Granger causality tests using annual data from 1960 to 2007. Results confirm the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Singapore; real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level significantly by 51.4% in the TLG model. The major finding of this study is that the TLG hypothesis is confirmed for the Singaporean economy in the long-term as a result of conditional Granger causality tests.

scholarly journals Stock Prices, Consumer Sentiment, And Economic Activity: Some Robust Bilateral Causality Tests For The US And The UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Barry Wilbratte
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Test Procedures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
The Uk

This paper performs robust bilateral Granger causality tests for stock prices, consumer sentiment, and economic activity for the US and the UK. The robust test procedures involve the use of recently developed time series analysis of nonstationary data with possible structural breaks. Applying a battery of such tests, the paper finds the underlying data to be generally nonstationary and noncointegrated, even after allowing for possible breaks in the data, thus implying that the standard bilateral Granger causality tests are robust. The empirical results indicate the presence of unidirectional causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment for both countries. Given that stock prices drive consumer sentiment, we perform additional causality tests to determine the effect of consumer sentiment on the economy. Our finding of a unidirectional causality from consumer sentiment to the economy in both countries is consistent with a chain of causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment to the economy.

scholarly journals The United Kingdom and Brexit: Implications, Consequences and Opportunities

2018 ◽  
Vol III (II) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ilhamah Qiamy ◽  
Fahim Nawaz ◽  
Syed Umair Jalal
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Annual Time ◽  
Political Decisions

Presently, Brexit and its implications for the United Kingdom (UK), European Union and rest of the world, are regarded as major concerns across the globe. The present study is an attempt to estimate the shock that the UKs economy will likely receive as a consequence of Brexit. It also seeks to find an answer to the question whether costs incurred as a consequence of Brexit are repairable or otherwise for the UK. By applying a vector autoregressive (VAR) model on annual time series data of four important economic variables, i.e. gross domestic product (GDP), imports, exports and foreign direct investment, ranging from 1970-2016, an interdependence relation was found to hold among variables. The result concludes that through Brexit, the UKs economy will face some fluctuations which wont last any longer than 12 to 15 years. In return, it will grant UK sovereignty in the different vital segments of the country like economic policies and political decisions.

Independent commissions and labour migration: The British MAC

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin ◽  
Martin Ruhs
Keyword(s):  
Labour Force ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Foreign Workers ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Independent Evidence ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Labour Immigration ◽  
British Labour ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
The Uk

The independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) was created in 2007 after a decade in which the share of foreign-born workers in the British labour force doubled to 13 per cent. The initial core mandate of the MAC was to provide “independent, evidence-based advice to government on specific skilled occupations in the labour market where shortages exist which can sensibly be filled by migration.” The MAC's answers to these 3-S questions, viz, is the occupation for which employers are requesting foreign workers skilled, are there labour shortages, and is admitting foreign workers a sensible response, have improved the quality of the debate over the “need” for foreign workers in the UK by highlighting some of the important trade-offs inherent in migration policy making. The MAC can clarify migration trade-offs in labour immigration policy, but cannot decide the ultimately political questions about whose interests should be prioritised and how competing policy objectives should be balanced.

scholarly journals Do Operating Profits Induce a Wage Premium Equally Shared among Employees Earning High or Low Incomes?

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Jarle Aarstad ◽  
Olav A. Kvitastein
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Wage Inequality ◽  
Wage Premium ◽  
Wage Increase ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

Panel data show that between 2001 and 2014 Norwegian industries’ increasing aggregated operating profits per employee increased average wages and wage inequality. The data imply that increasing profits, perhaps unsurprisingly, induce a wage premium. The data further imply that employees earning high incomes at the outset had the highest wage increase percentage-wise. Decreasing operating profits per employee had opposite but less robust effects on average wages and wage inequality. Panel data Granger causality tests finally showed that average wages, but not wage inequality, reversely and positively affect operating profits per employee.

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