scholarly journals Investment decisions within the context of financialization: Cointegration evidence from the UK economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Joseph Nellis

Within the context of financialization, this empirical study sheds some light on the distributional aspects of the existing intra-capitalist conflict between financial and industrial capital and its concomitant impact, via investment, on the macroeconomy. In doing so, bounds-test cointegration techniques in conjunction with Granger causality tests provide the econometric framework upon which the respective models are tested. Annual time series were used spanning from 1971 to 2012, for the UK. The empirical evidence is in line with the theoretical exposition insofar as investment decisions by industry are significantly conditioned by industrial profit. Moreover, the distribution of profits between industry and finance, in conjunction with policy objectives, appears to be playing an instrumental role in affecting capital accumulation.

Author(s):  
Esin Cakan

This study analyzes the dynamic relationships between inflation uncertainty and stock returns by employing the linear and non-linear Granger causality tests for the US and the UK. Using GARCH model to generate a measure of inflation uncertainty, it does not have a predictive power for stock returns, as predicted by Friedman, and it does not support the opportunistic central bank hypothesis suggested by Cukierman-Meltzer. However, the findings from non-linear Granger causality put forth that there is a bi-directional non-linear predictive power between these variables. Stock market is used as a hedge against inflation uncertainty.


2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (03) ◽  
pp. 441-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
SALIH TURAN KATIRCIOǦLU

This paper empirically investigates the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis in the case of Singapore by employing the bounds test to cointegration, error correction models and Granger causality tests using annual data from 1960 to 2007. Results confirm the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Singapore; real income growth converges to its long-term equilibrium level significantly by 51.4% in the TLG model. The major finding of this study is that the TLG hypothesis is confirmed for the Singaporean economy in the long-term as a result of conditional Granger causality tests.


Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Barry Wilbratte

This paper performs robust bilateral Granger causality tests for stock prices, consumer sentiment, and economic activity for the US and the UK. The robust test procedures involve the use of recently developed time series analysis of nonstationary data with possible structural breaks. Applying a battery of such tests, the paper finds the underlying data to be generally nonstationary and noncointegrated, even after allowing for possible breaks in the data, thus implying that the standard bilateral Granger causality tests are robust. The empirical results indicate the presence of unidirectional causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment for both countries. Given that stock prices drive consumer sentiment, we perform additional causality tests to determine the effect of consumer sentiment on the economy. Our finding of a unidirectional causality from consumer sentiment to the economy in both countries is consistent with a chain of causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment to the economy.


2018 ◽  
Vol III (II) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Ilhamah Qiamy ◽  
Fahim Nawaz ◽  
Syed Umair Jalal

Presently, Brexit and its implications for the United Kingdom (UK), European Union and rest of the world, are regarded as major concerns across the globe. The present study is an attempt to estimate the shock that the UKs economy will likely receive as a consequence of Brexit. It also seeks to find an answer to the question whether costs incurred as a consequence of Brexit are repairable or otherwise for the UK. By applying a vector autoregressive (VAR) model on annual time series data of four important economic variables, i.e. gross domestic product (GDP), imports, exports and foreign direct investment, ranging from 1970-2016, an interdependence relation was found to hold among variables. The result concludes that through Brexit, the UKs economy will face some fluctuations which wont last any longer than 12 to 15 years. In return, it will grant UK sovereignty in the different vital segments of the country like economic policies and political decisions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin ◽  
Martin Ruhs

The independent Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) was created in 2007 after a decade in which the share of foreign-born workers in the British labour force doubled to 13 per cent. The initial core mandate of the MAC was to provide “independent, evidence-based advice to government on specific skilled occupations in the labour market where shortages exist which can sensibly be filled by migration.” The MAC's answers to these 3-S questions, viz, is the occupation for which employers are requesting foreign workers skilled, are there labour shortages, and is admitting foreign workers a sensible response, have improved the quality of the debate over the “need” for foreign workers in the UK by highlighting some of the important trade-offs inherent in migration policy making. The MAC can clarify migration trade-offs in labour immigration policy, but cannot decide the ultimately political questions about whose interests should be prioritised and how competing policy objectives should be balanced.


Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Jarle Aarstad ◽  
Olav A. Kvitastein

Panel data show that between 2001 and 2014 Norwegian industries’ increasing aggregated operating profits per employee increased average wages and wage inequality. The data imply that increasing profits, perhaps unsurprisingly, induce a wage premium. The data further imply that employees earning high incomes at the outset had the highest wage increase percentage-wise. Decreasing operating profits per employee had opposite but less robust effects on average wages and wage inequality. Panel data Granger causality tests finally showed that average wages, but not wage inequality, reversely and positively affect operating profits per employee.


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