scholarly journals Long-term predictions of the energy development - possibilities and challenges

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (suppl. 1) ◽  
pp. 69-75
Author(s):  
Gligor Kanevce ◽  
Aleksandar Dedinec ◽  
Aleksandra Dedinec ◽  
Ljubica Kanevce

In this paper the possibilities, disadvantages and benefits of long-term planning of energy development, are analysed. The factors influencing the development of energy and the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting of the future development of energy are presented. The uncertainties that make the differences in modelling on a global scale, as well as the uncertainties that make the differences in modelling of the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia are also presented. Sensitivity analysis of the influence of different factors on the development of energy in the Republic of Macedonia was carried out. For those purposes the energy development of the Republic of Macedonia for the period up to 2035 year is calculated by using MARKAL model. The main features of the MARKAL model are also presented.

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
Teodora Obradovikj Grncarovska ◽  
Vladimir Dukovski ◽  
Manu Sharma

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to formulate an integrated product policy (IPP) framework for the Republic of Macedonia, taking into account unique circumstances faced by the country, particularly the mandatory transposition of European Union (EU) environmental legislation, limited country-specific data availability and the low level of environmental awareness. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed IPP indicators at EU level and the available indicators in Macedonian conditions were used in order to create a composite IPP index as a method of measurement of the level of IPP implementation in the country. Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are used as a policy decision approach for IPP. The purpose is to evaluate what decisions (taken now and in the future) would lead to the best possible level of IPP implementation. The approach applicability for long-term policy planning is demonstrated using a simple numerical example. Findings – A stylized numerical example utilizing the composite IPP index and the MDP approach indicate that policy makers should focus not only on transposing the mandatory EU legislation related to IPP, but simultaneously work to raise public awareness of IPP and environmental issues, since this opens the door for more beneficial policy alternatives in the future. Considering the long-term consequences of actions taken in the present time should be an essential part of policy design, given the pervasive and long-term nature of the effects of IPP policy. It is also very important to revisit the assumptions at regular intervals and incorporate into this framework the new learning and data obtained with time. Originality/value – This IPP framework and quantitative policy decision approach, in spite of its limitations, is a valuable and informative guide for IPP policy makers in the Republic of Macedonia. By incorporating a long-term view, explicit measurement of progress towards IPP implementation and the consideration of possible future consequences of policy decisions made in the present, it should be possible to significantly increase the likelihood of successful IPP implementation and improve environmental outcomes than those obtained using more conventional approaches.


2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (09) ◽  
pp. 622-626
Author(s):  
C. Stocker ◽  
G. Reinhart

Vibrationswendelförderer (VWF) sind die meistverwendeten Systeme zur automatisierten Vereinzelung und Zuführung von Schüttgut. Zur Verbesserung der derzeit manuellen Entwicklung, werden Methoden zur Simulation von VWF erforscht. Der Fachartikel stellt eine physiksimulationsbasierte Sensitivitätsanalyse des Förderguts bezüglich der Topologie im VWF vor. Die Ergebnisse dieser Analyse dienen als Basis für die Entwicklung eines Verfahrens zur automatischen Generierung von Ordnungsschikanen.   Vibratory bowl feeders (VBF) are the most frequently used systems for automated sorting and feeding of bulk material. To improve the current manual development process, methods for simulation of VBF are researched. The presented paper introduces a physics simulation based sensitivity analysis of the behavior of transported parts related to the topology of the VBF. These results provide a basis for the future development of an algorithm for the automated generation of orienting devices.


2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nada Petrusheva ◽  
Aleksandar Nikolovski

Amongst economists there is a broad consensus that in order to overcome economic stagnation the economic growth model should be more directed towards increasing investments and export and less reliant on consumption. The stable commitment towards improving the business ambient, the implementation of structural reforms in the field of competitiveness, the export sector as well as investments in infrastructure and education are the fundamental prerequisites to be realized for the opening of perspectives in the overall social development of the countries in the Western Balkans, including the Republic of Macedonia. The dominant driving force of economic growth – investments (foreign and domestic) have not been sufficiently implemented so that structural economic problems such as the low GDP growth rate, unsatisfactory export, unfavourable industrial structure have been present during the entire periodsince the independence of the Republic of Macedonia. Unlike other countries in Middle and Eastern Europe such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in which foreign capital was steered towards manufacturing higher added value products, in the Republic of Macedonia investment entered mainly the trade and the banking industry, and quite less in manufacturing.Lacking own significant capacities for considerable increase of the gross-investment rate, assets sources for investments must be found in foreign accumulation, particularly via foreign direct investments so as not to increase the degree indebting the country. The global economic and financial crisis which spread over Europe in the last years has motivated the countries in the Western Balkans, including the Republic of Macedonia, to engage into a more active and more aggressive attraction of foreign capital. Foreign direct investments are considered the highest economic priority for long-term development, whereas the benefits to the national economy are multiple and influence the reduction of unemployment, increase of export, inflow of new technology, knowledge and skills, as well as improvement of the population’s living standard. However, despite the commitment, reforms and activities undertaken to attract FDI, the countries of the Western Balkans are facing remarks from investors for having an insufficiently reformed judicial system, bureaucratic issues, inefficient public administration and corruption. Therefore, it is essential to work continually on improving the macroeconomic environment and implement a long-term strategy to attract FDI through active policies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-93
Author(s):  
Ida Bagus Brata ◽  
Rulianto Rulianto ◽  
Adi Saputra

This paper tries to examine "cultural existence" which is one of Bung Karno's "Trisakti" concepts delivered in his speech on the 20th birthday of the Republic of Indonesia, August 17, 1965. This ideology was deliberately brought up by Bung Karno in response to the practice of neo-colonialism. imperialism (nekolim) in the form of Western cultural hegemony towards Indonesian culture which is felt to be very detrimental in the future development of its people. Existence in a culture is actually a cultural identity, is the identity of a person as a citizen of a nation that is obtained from birth through the process of interaction that is done at any time in his life and then forms a special pattern that radiates characteristics to the person concerned. The Indonesian nation is a multicultural nation, a nation of diverse ethnic, cultural and religious diversity. This diversity has contributed to the formation of this nation, but when symptoms of disintegration occur it is often accused of being a source of conflict. Being in culture is an inspiring ideology that is absolutely needed by a multicultural nation such as Indonesia in anticipating various dynamics in society including dynamics due to globalization.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (Suppl.1) ◽  
pp. 76-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Daskalova

The development of e-Government is the main priority in the strategic documents of the Republic of Bulgaria during the programme period 2014-2020. The projects financed under Operational Programme “Good Governance” are of key significance both for the attainment of the strategic objectives and of the expected results input in them. The purpose of the publication is to analyse the conformity between the strategic documents and the projects implemented in the sphere of e-Government in the country. A desk analysis, an empirical analysis and other scientific methods are applied for the attainment of the purpose in the research. Problems in their development are identified as a result of the analysis of the current projects and alternatives are proposed for their elimination. Perspectives are outlined for the future development of the e-Government in Bulgaria in conclusion.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-85
Author(s):  
Cvetko Andreeski

Life insurance is very challenging sector in developing countries. Life insurance makes contribute at the investments in every country, so the more developed life insurance, more investments one should expect. One of the main aspects in calculation of risk in life insurance is using updated tables of mortality and forecast of the future values of mortality. There are many functions and models for mortality forecast calculation. Lee-Carter and Azbel Model for mortality trend calculation are used in this paper. In order to evaluate the results, data sets with the mortality in the Republic of Macedonia are used.


2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Maja Ivanović-Đukić ◽  
Marija Petrović-Ranđelović ◽  
Miljana Talić

The paper investigates the impact of different factors on the establishment and development of social enterprises (SPs). The aim of this paper is to identify the key stimulants and restrictions of development of SPs in the Republic of Serbia, and to propose measures, the application of which can increase their long-term sustainability. The paper is based on exploratory research using data covering 27 interviews with founders of social enterprises in the Republic of Serbia. By applying the methods of regression analysis, it was found that favorable financial resources (especially grants) are the key stimulants for the establishment of social enterprises, while the enthusiasm of managers of social enterprises has the greatest impact on their development. It was found also that legal regulations and the macroeconomic environment, as well as difficulties in accessing the market, are serious restrictions on the establishment of social enterprises, while lack of knowledge in the field of marketing and management limit the development of social enterprises in the Republic of Serbia.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Angel Prabhu

The document review discusses selected guidelines and recommendations that international actors have formulated as a result of experience providing relief for young children in emergencies. Its purpose is to help develop response plans for future emergencies. The failure to respond to and protect children from escalating threats in emergencies has many consequences including a loss of educational opportunity and a long-term social cost. The prevent these tragedies children's core needs need to be met in safe, protected and structured settings, with support provided for caregivers. The document review is followed by a discussion of the guidelines and recommendations for the future development of response guidelines.


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