scholarly journals Non-Diversifiable Volatility Risk and Risk Premiums at Earnings Announcements

2014 ◽  
Vol 89 (5) ◽  
pp. 1579-1607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary E. Barth ◽  
Eric C. So
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Predictable Variation ◽  
Jel Classifications

ABSTRACT This study seeks to determine whether earnings announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk that commands a risk premium. We find that investors anticipate some earnings announcements to convey news that increases market return volatility and pay a premium to hedge this non-diversifiable risk. In particular, we find evidence of risk premiums embedded in prices of firms' traded options that are significantly positively associated with the extent to which the firms' earnings announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk. In addition, we find that volatility risk premiums are concentrated among bellwether firms and result in predictable variation in option straddle returns around earnings announcements. Taken together, our findings show that some earnings announcements pose non-diversifiable volatility risk that commands a risk premium. JEL Classifications: M41; G12; G13; G14

Time-Varying Risk Premiums in the Framework of Wine Investment

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Le Fur ◽  
Hachmi Ben Ameur ◽  
Benoit Faye
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractThis article examines the time-varying risk premium with reference to investments in fine wines. Unlike previous studies, our article focuses on this issue within the context of the financial crisis. To do this, we propose the use of a conditional capital asset pricing model and a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model on several appellation wines worldwide. We find that Bordeaux fine wines were more volatile during the financial crisis and are less volatile in non-crisis periods. In addition, while the volatility of Burgundy wines is second only to Bordeaux wines, non-French fine wines (Australia, Italy, and USA) exhibit inverse volatility trends to French fine wines. (JEL Classifications: C50, G01, G11, Q13)

Sarbanes-Oxley: changes in risk premium and return volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose G Vega ◽  
Jan Smolarski ◽  
Haiyan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sarbanes Oxley ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
The Us

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine if the enactment of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) resulted in lower risk premium and return volatility in the US stock markets. The paper examines the two components of excess return (total risk premium) separately: the amount of volatility (risk) and the unit price of risk (risk premium). Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a Component Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity approach to estimate the permanent and transitory component of share price volatility. The authors then use the predicted volatility to measure the unit price of risk and its changes due to the enactment of the SOX Act. Findings – The results regarding excess returns indicate that the implementation of SOX had a positive effect on the market. A positive effect means a steady decrease in required excess rates of returns due to the implementation of SOX. The years leading up to the implementation of SOX are characterized by significant sources of uncertainty. Around the implementation of SOX, the authors observe a long-term reduction in return volatility (risk), and a temporary reduction in the unit price of risk. Subsequent to the implementation, investors gained confidence in the effectiveness of internal controls over the financial reporting process, which helped in reducing the information risk and, therefore, the risk premium. Research limitations/implications – The authors find that total risk premium decreased over extended periods. The authors conclude that the enactment of SOX helped in reducing the uncertainty in the US capital market resulting in a reduction of total risk premiums and hence the cost of capital. Practical implications – The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms. Social implications – The study shows how financial markets react to regulations and the authors also provide information on investors’ reaction as firms adjust to changing regulations. The results of the study allows regulators to potentially use a more refined or targeted approach when introducing new regulations. It also allows investors to make informed investment decisions as they relate to risk premium requirements, which in turn may allow investors to allocate capital more efficiently. Originality/value – There are many studies concerning the enactment of SOX but few, if any, existing studies examine the original intent of SOX: to calm the US equity markets and restore market confidence from a return volatility perspective. The results have implications for policy makers, investors and researchers in general and those in the US markets in particular. The results are important because it allows policy makers and regulators to improve on how they design and implement accounting, market and finance regulations and reforms.

scholarly journals Modeling stock market return volatility in the presence of structural breaks

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 156-171
Author(s):  
Caroline Michere Ndei ◽  
Stephen Muchina ◽  
Kennedy Waweru
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Volatility Persistence ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Best Fit

This study sought to model the stock market return volatility at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) in the presence of structural breaks. Using daily NSE 20 share index for the period 04/01/2010  to  29/12/2017,  the market return volatility was modeled using different GARCH type models and taking into account four endogenously identified structural breaks. The market exhibited a non-normal distribution that was leptokurtic and negatively skewed and also showed evidence for ARCH effects, volatility clustering, and volatility persistence. We found that by considering structural breaks, volatility persistence was reduced, while leverage effects were found to lead to explosive volatility. In addition, investors were not rewarded for taking up additional risk since the risk premium was insignificant for the full period. However, during explosive volatility, investors were rewarded for taking up more risk. Moreover, we found that risk premium, leverage effects, and volatility persistence were significantly correlated. The GARCH (1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models were found to be the best fit models to test for symmetric and asymmetric effects respectively. While the GARCH models were able to provide evidence for the stylized facts in the NSE, we conclude that the presence or absence of these features is period specific. This especially relates to volatility persistence, leverage effects, and risk premium effects. Caution should, therefore, be taken in using a specific GARCH model to forecast market return volatility in Kenya. It is thus imperative to pretest the data before any return volatility forecasting is done.

scholarly journals The impact of internationalisation on stock liquidity and volatility: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kudakwashe J. Chipunza ◽  
Kerry McCullough
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact

Maximising firm value remains a key tenet of corporate managers. Firms with lower illiquidity and volatility attract lower risk premiums, and these are associated with a lower cost of capital and higher firm value. Internationalisation is one avenue purported to provide liquidity and volatility benefits – possibly lowering both liquidity and volatility risk premiums. This study investigated whether South African domiciled stocks experience a surge in liquidity and/or decline in volatility subsequent to internationalisation. The findings show that internationalisation resulted in a surge in liquidity, and this increase was persistent as suggested by the trading volume and Amihud illiquidity measures of stock liquidity; however, the turnover measure indicated that such liquidity gains were temporary. Similarly, volatility declines after internationalisation were temporary. There was inconclusive evidence to show that internationalised stocks had higher liquidity relative to purely domestic shares, and no statistically significant difference between the volatility of internationalised and purely domestic shareholders’ equity was noted. There is only weak evidence to support internationalisation as a route for lowering cost of capital via a reduction in the liquidity risk premium.

The Determinants of the Ex Ante Risk Premiumin Commercial Real Estate

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 411-441
Author(s):  
El i Beracha ◽  
Julia Freybote ◽  
Zhenguo Lin
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Debt Capital ◽  
Ex Ante

We investigate the determinants of the ex ante risk premium in commercial real estate. Using a 20-year time series and Markov-switching regression, we find that the ex ante risk premium is affected by fundamental and non-fundamental determinants, albeit not symmetrically when risk premiums are increasing and decreasing. In particular, we find that changes in debt capital market conditions have a higher predictive power for changes in the ex ante risk premium when it is increasing, while changes in stock market volatility and commercial real estate market returns have a higher predictive power when the risk premium is on the decline. In addition, changes in commercial real estate sentiment and NAREIT returns can predict changes in the ex ante risk premium; however, the predictive power of these variables varies across property types and risk premium (risk perception) states.

Concurrent Earnings Announcements and Analysts' Information Production

2019 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Driskill ◽  
Marcus P. Kirk ◽  
Jennifer Wu Tucker
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Conference Calls ◽  
Stock Recommendations ◽  
Rich Information ◽  
Sample Firm ◽  
Jel Classifications

ABSTRACT We examine whether financial analysts are subject to limited attention. We find that when analysts have another firm in their coverage portfolio announcing earnings on the same day as the sample firm (a “concurrent announcement”), they are less likely to issue timely earnings forecasts for the sample firm's subsequent quarter than analysts without a concurrent announcement. Among the analysts who issue timely earnings forecasts, the thoroughness of their work decreases as their number of concurrent announcements increases. In addition, analysts are more sluggish in providing stock recommendations and less likely to ask questions in earnings conference calls as their number of concurrent announcements increases. Moreover, when analysts face concurrent announcements, they tend to allocate their limited attention to firms that already have rich information environments, leaving behind firms in need of attention. Overall, our evidence suggests that even financial analysts, who serve as information specialists, are subject to limited attention. JEL Classifications: G10; G11; G17; G14. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from the sources identified in the paper.

Impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk in the Indian telecom sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1395-1416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Priyadarsini Yalla ◽  
Som Sekhar Bhattacharyya ◽  
Karuna Jain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Buffering Hypothesis ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Telecom Sector ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Post 1991, given the advent of liberalization and economic reforms, the Indian telecom sector witnessed a remarkable growth in terms of subscriber base and reduced competitive tariff among the service providers. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk among the Indian telecom firms. Design/methodology/approach This study employed a two-step methodology to measure the impact of regulatory announcements on systemic risk. In the first step, CAPM along with the Kalman filter was used to estimate the daily β (systemic risk). In the second step, event study methodology was used to assess the impact of regulatory announcements on daily β derived from the first step. Findings The results of this study indicate that regulatory announcements did impact systemic risk among telecom firms. The study also found that regulatory announcements either increased or decreased systemic risk, depending upon the type of regulatory announcements. Further, this study estimated the market-perceived regulatory risk premiums for individual telecom firms. Research limitations/implications The regulatory risk premium was either positive or negative, depending upon the different types of regulatory announcements for the telecom sector firms. Thus, this study contributes to the theory of literature by testing the buffering hypothesis in the context of Indian telecom firms. Practical implications The study findings will be useful for investors and policy-makers to estimate the regulatory risk premium as and when there is an anticipated regulatory announcement in the Indian telecom sector. Originality/value This is one of the first research studies in exploring regulatory risk among the Indian telecom firms. The research findings indicate that regulatory risk does exist in the telecom firms of India.

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