scholarly journals INVESTIGATION OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE STRATOSPHERE VARIABILITY IN XXI CENTURY IN INM CM5 CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
P. N. Vargin ◽  
◽  
E. M. Volodin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Break Up

Simulations of 5th version of INM RAS (Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science) climate model performed in the framework of CMIP6 project for the future climate under ssp2–4.5 (moderate) and ssp5–8.5 (business as usual or hard) scenarios of green house gases (GHG) increase are employed to analyze temperature, zonal mean wind, stratospheric polar vortex, planetary wave activity, meridional circulation, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, and stratospheric circulation spring break-up date changes during boreal winters from 2015 to 2100. Comparison of averages over two periods of 2080–2100 and 2015–2035 revealed that temperature will decrease from 1° in the lower stratosphere to 4° in the upper stratosphere under moderate scenario and up to 11° under hard scenario. Cooling of stratosphere will be accompanied by strengthening of zonal circulation and planetary wave activity propagation in the middle – upper stratosphere that in turn leads to increase (stronger under hard scenario) of planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 amplitude (wavenumber 1). 13 major sudden stratospheric warming events and 16 very cold stratospheric winter seasons were revealed under hard scenario. Under both scenarios early spring break-up dates will be accompanied by stronger wavenumber 1 in comparison with winter seasons with later spring break-up dates. Strengthening of zonal mean meridional circulation is expected in the late XXI century

scholarly journals Arctic Stratosphere Circulation Changes in the 21st Century in Simulations of INM CM5

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Pavel N. Vargin ◽  
Sergey V. Kostrykin ◽  
Evgeni M. Volodin ◽  
Alexander I. Pogoreltsev ◽  
Ke Wei
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stationary Planetary Wave

Simulations of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) coupled climate model 5th version for the period from 2015 to 2100 under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gases growth are analyzed to investigate changes of Arctic polar stratospheric vortex, planetary wave propagation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming frequency, Final Warming dates, and meridional circulation. Strengthening of wave activity propagation and a stationary planetary wave number 1 in the middle and upper stratosphere, acceleration of meridional circulation, an increase of winter mean polar stratospheric volume (Vpsc) and strengthening of Arctic stratosphere interannual variability after the middle of 21st century, especially under a severe scenario, were revealed. March monthly values of Vpsc in some winters could be about two times more than observed ones in the Arctic stratosphere in the spring of 2011 and 2020, which in turn could lead to large ozone layer destruction. Composite analysis shows that “warm” winters with the least winter mean Vpsc values are characterized by strengthening of wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere in December but weaker propagation in January–February in comparison with winters having the largest Vpsc values.

scholarly journals Tropospheric forcing of the boreal polar vortex splitting in January 2003

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (11) ◽  
pp. 2133-2148 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. H. W. Peters ◽  
P. Vargin ◽  
A. Gabriel ◽  
N. Tsvetkova ◽  
V. Yushkov
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Wave Trains

Abstract. The dynamical evolution of the relatively warm stratospheric winter season 2002–2003 in the Northern Hemisphere was studied and compared with the cold winter 2004–2005 based on NCEP-Reanalyses. Record low temperatures were observed in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Arctic region only at the beginning of the 2002–2003 winter. Six sudden stratospheric warming events, including the major warming event with a splitting of the polar vortex in mid-January 2003, have been identified. This led to a very high vacillation of the zonal mean circulation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex over the whole winter season. An estimate of the mean chemical ozone destruction inside the polar vortex showed a total ozone loss of about 45 DU in winter 2002–2003; that is about 2.5 times smaller than in winter 2004–2005. Embedded in a winter with high wave activity, we found two subtropical Rossby wave trains in the troposphere before the major sudden stratospheric warming event in January 2003. These Rossby waves propagated north-eastwards and maintained two upper tropospheric anticyclones. At the same time, the amplification of an upward propagating planetary wave 2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was observed, which could be caused primarily by those two wave trains. Furthermore, two extratropical Rossby wave trains over the North Pacific Ocean and North America were identified a couple of days later, which contribute mainly to the vertical planetary wave activity flux just before and during the major warming event. It is shown that these different tropospheric forcing processes caused the major warming event and contributed to the splitting of the polar vortex.

scholarly journals Tropospheric and Stratospheric Precursors to the January 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1321-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah E. Attard ◽  
Rosimar Rios-Berrios ◽  
Corey T. Guastini ◽  
Andrea L. Lang
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Wave Resonance

Abstract This paper investigates the tropospheric and stratospheric precursors to a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that began on 6 January 2013. Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the analysis identified two distinct decelerations of the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N in December in addition to the major SSW, which occurred on 6 January 2013 when the 10-hPa zonal mean zonal wind at 65°N reversed from westerly to easterly. The analysis shows that the two precursor events preconditioned the stratosphere for the SSW. Analysis of the tropospheric state in the days leading to the precursor events and the major SSW suggests that high-latitude tropospheric blocks occurred in the days prior to the two December deceleration events, but not in the days prior to the SSW. A detailed wave activity flux (WAF) analysis suggests that the tropospheric blocking prior to the two December deceleration events contributed to an anomalously positive 40-day-average 100-hPa zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux prior to the SSW. Analysis of the stratospheric structure in the days prior to the SSW reveals that the SSW was associated with enhanced WAF in the upper stratosphere, planetary wave breaking, and an upper-stratospheric/lower-mesospheric disturbance. These results suggest that preconditioning of the stratosphere occurred as a result of WAF initiated by tropospheric blocking associated with the two December deceleration events. The two December deceleration events occurred in the 40 days prior to the SSW and led to the amplification of wave activity in the upper stratosphere and wave resonance that caused the January 2013 SSW.

scholarly journals Investigation on the abnormal quasi-two day wave activities during sudden stratospheric warming period of January 2006

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng-Yang Gu ◽  
Xiankang Dou ◽  
Dora Pancheva
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Phase Speed ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Zonal Wave Number

Abstract. The quasi-two day wave (QTDW) during austral summer period usually coincides with sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in the winter hemisphere, while the influences of SSW on QTDW are not totally understood. In this work, the anomalous QTDW activities during the major SSW period of January 2006 are further investigated on the basis of hourly Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) reanalysis dataset. Strong westward QTDW with zonal wave number 2 (W2) is identified besides the conventionally dominant mode of zonal wave number 3 (W3). Meanwhile, the W3 peaks with an extremely short period of ~ 42 hours. Compared with January 2005 with no evident SSW, we found that the zonal mean zonal wind in the summer mesosphere is enhanced during 2006. The enhanced summer easterly sustains critical layers for W2 and short-period W3 QTDWs with larger phase speed, which facilitate their amplification through wave-mean flow interaction. The stronger summer easterly also provides stronger barotropic/baroclinic instabilities and thus larger forcing for the amplification of QTDW. The inter-hemispheric coupling induced by strong winter stratospheric planetary wave activities during SSW period is most likely responsible for the enhancement of summer easterly. Besides, we found that the nonlinear interaction between W3 QTDW and the wave number 1 stationary planetary wave (SPW1) may also contribute to the source of W2 at middle and low latitudes in the mesosphere.

scholarly journals A Study of False Alarms of a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming by Real-Time Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for the 2017/2018 Northern Winter

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 875
Author(s):  
Masakazu Taguchi
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
First Case

This study investigates false alarms of a major sudden stratospheric warming (MSSW) by real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts system for the 2017/2018 Northern Hemisphere winter season. The analysis reveals two false alarm cases in the season, one in early December and the other in early February. Each case is characterized by ensembles of which a considerable part of the members (MSSW members) show an MSSW, that is, reversal of the zonal mean zonal wind in the extratropical stratosphere on similar calendar dates. Ensemble forecasts that are initialized earlier or later basically lack an MSSW, demonstrating clear intraseasonal variability in the frequency of forecasted MSSWs. For each false alarm case, the MSSW member mean field shows equatorward displacement of the polar vortex around the onset date. For both cases, the MSSW members accompany stronger wave activity in the lower stratosphere than other non-MSSW members and reanalysis data. They are further associated with higher geopotential height than the non-MSSW members, in the upper troposphere over northeastern Canada and Greenland before the first case, and lower height over northeastern Eurasia before the second case. These are located over the ridge and trough, respectively, of the climatological planetary wave of zonal wave number one, and are consistent with the increased wave activity.

Burst of Unusual Quasi-10 day Wave During the 2019 Southern Sudden Stratospheric Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Wang ◽  
Scott Palo ◽  
Jeffrey Forbes ◽  
John Marino ◽  
Tracy Moffat-Griffin
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Wind Measurements ◽  
Mlt Region

<div> <p>An unusual sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred in the Southern hemisphere in September 2019. Ground-based and satellite observations show the presence of a transient westward-propagating quasi-10 day planetary wave with zonal wavenumber one during the SSW. The planetary wave activity maximizes in the MLT region approximately 10 days after the SSW onset. Analysis indicates the quasi-10 day planetary wave is symmetric about the equator which is contrary to theory for such planetary waves. </p> </div><div> <p>Observations from MLS and SABER provide a unique opportunity to study the global structure and evolution of the symmetric quasi-10 day wave with observations of both geopotential height and temperature during these unusual atmospheric conditions. The space-based measurements are combined with meteor radar wind measurements from Antarctica, providing a comprehensive view of the quasi-10 day wave activity in the southern hemisphere during this SSW. We will also present the results of our mesospheric and lower thermospheric analysis along with a preliminary analysis of the ionospheric response to these wave perturbations.</p> </div>

Investigating the connection between tropospheric blocking and sudden stratospheric warming events using GNSS radio occultation observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamilya Yessimbet ◽  
Andrea Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Radio Occultation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
First Results ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

<p>Both sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events and tropospheric blocking events can have a significant influence on winter extratropical surface weather. Upward propagating planetary waves from the troposphere can interact with the stratospheric mean flow and disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex, which is associated with an SSW event. Blocking has often been suggested as one of the tropospheric precursors for anomalous upward propagating wave activity flux. It remains an open question to what extent upward wave activity caused by blocking is related to SSW events. In the present study, we examine the evolution of the Eliassen-Palm fluxes during blocking events that precede SSWs. We use Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation measurements for this analysis to provide accurate and vertically well-resolved information on the wave coupling between these two phenomena in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. First results will be presented and discussed.</p><p>Keywords: sudden stratospheric warming, Eliassen-Palm flux, blocking</p>

scholarly journals Small-scale variability of stratospheric ozone during the sudden stratospheric warming 2018/2019 observed at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 10791-10806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Schranz ◽  
Jonas Hagen ◽  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Klemens Hocke ◽  
Axel Murk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Elevation Angle ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Horizontal Distance ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Abstract. Middle atmospheric ozone, water vapour and zonal and meridional wind profiles have been measured with the two ground-based microwave radiometers GROMOS-C and MIAWARA-C. The instruments have been located at the Arctic research base AWIPEV at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79∘ N, 12∘ E), since September 2015. GROMOS-C measures ozone spectra in the four cardinal directions with an elevation angle of 22∘. This means that the probed air masses at an altitude of 3 hPa (37 km) have a horizontal distance of 92 km to Ny-Ålesund. We retrieve four separate ozone profiles along the lines of sight and calculate daily mean horizontal ozone gradients which allow us to investigate the small-scale spatial variability of ozone above Ny-Ålesund. We present the evolution of the ozone gradients at Ny-Ålesund during winter 2018/2019, when a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) took place with the central date at 2 January, and link it to the planetary wave activity. We further analyse the SSW and discuss our ozone and water vapour measurements in a global context. At 3 hPa we find a distinct seasonal variation of the ozone gradients. The strong polar vortex during October and March results in a decreasing ozone volume mixing ratio towards the pole. In November the amplitudes of the planetary waves grow until they break in the end of December and an SSW takes place. From November until February ozone increases towards higher latitudes and the magnitude of the ozone gradients is smaller than in October and March. We attribute this to the planetary wave activity of wave numbers 1 and 2 which enabled meridional transport. The MERRA-2 reanalysis and the SD-WACCM model are able to capture the small-scale ozone variability and its seasonal changes.

scholarly journals Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Bo Pang ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Riyu Lu ◽  
Rongcai Ren
Keyword(s):  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Destructive Interference ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sudden Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Wave Interference ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Circulation

AbstractThis study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.

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