Business cycle synchronization and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the Euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries' degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.

One-factor model for default rates by loan type

This paper investigates the link between default rates by loan types and the systemic credit risk component. This link is described by a linear model that combines systemic and idiosyncratic contributions. The systemic component is a latent factor that depends directly on the aggregate loan default rate, while the idiosyncratic component drives specific variations of default rates across loan types. By transforming observable risk measures, the model can be econometrically represented as a mixed-effects model, where the systemic and idiosyncratic components represent, respectively, the slope and the intercept that are specific for each loan type individually. The proposed model is illustrated on a panel of defaulted loans of the Association of Serbian Banks. The obtained results show the model's very high power in explaining average default rates for all loan types. Thus, the aggregate default rate plays the role of a unique systemic component that mimics the influence of fundamental macroeconomic risk factors easily, without the necessity to model this relationship explicitly.

The impact of the crisis caused by coronavirus on business decisions of the companies whose shares are listed on the Banja Luka stock exchange: Example of the dividend payment decision

The subject of this paper is an analysis of the impact of the crisis caused by coronavirus on business decisions of issuers whose shares are listed on the Banja Luka Stock Exchange, through the example of dividend payment decisions. For the purpose of determining the factual situation, we observed publicly available financial reports of all companies that paid dividends from profits for 2018 and 2019 and made a comparison of profit retention rates in the two observed periods. We also analyzed other available information on the operations of these issuers. The research results show that in 10 out of 16 cases in which there was dividend payment from profits for 2019, the rate of profit retention increased compared to 2018. In addition to the mentioned 16 cases of dividend payment from the profit for the previous year, two cases were recorded in which dividend payment was made, but from the accumulated profit of previous years, so that the retention rate was not calculated for these issuers. If we take into account the fact that, in almost all cases, the decision on the (non-)payment of dividends was made at a time when uncertainties regarding coronavirus were already present in Republika Srpska, it can be concluded that the impending crisis had an impact on 2019 net results distribution decisions.

The role and importance of internal control and internal audit in the prevention and identification of fraudulent actions in banks

Modern banks have a specific role and a whole range of functions of paramount importance, as financial institutions for granting loans, creating loans, mobilizing savings and economic development. In the financial sector, there is a growing number of people who are using increasingly innovative and creative ways of targeting all perceived weaknesses in banks and credit approval systems. The persons committing fraud have become increasingly sophisticated, which means that measures to prevent fraud must be constantly developed to ensure that they are able to deal with the threat. The fight against fraud is crucial for financial services institutions. This article aims not only to briefly describe the role of internal control and internal audit in detecting possible fraud in banks, as profit-oriented organizations in today's complex and highly changing business environment, but also to point out the advantages they have in the more efficient management of bank activities.

Central Bank digital currencies

Central Bank digital currencies are a digital challenge to the international monetary and financial system. Since the development of cryptocurrency, such as bitcoin, the modern world has faced the possibility of digital technological transformation and providing a digital form of payment for the economy and the household. In addition, the announcement of a digital currency that would have a global reach, such as the Libre issued by the social network Facebook, raised questions about legal and regulatory safeguards, financial stability, and the role of the digital currency in society. All this influenced the leading central banks to recognize the need to conduct a detailed analysis of the possibilities of issuing digital currency of the central bank, which would be a supplement to the cash and non-cash form of payment. These analyzes include considering the advantages and disadvantages of that currency, determining its design and technological solution, as well as the necessary regulatory adjustments. In the coming period, we will witness a technological transformation in the operations of central banks, which, as before, should take care of preserving price and financial stability as its main goals, but also respond to new challenges of digital business.

Intellectual capital as a strategic performance with a focus on banks

Intellectual capital is of great value to profit-oriented organizations today. In the modern environment, the issue of strategic advantage is inseparable from the consideration of the issue of intellectual capital, bearing in mind that intellectual capital is a generator of economic value. In order for banks, as modern profit-oriented organizations, to achieve target performance, they need to know what their competitive advantage is, and to identify the necessary capacities and resources for sustainable business. The role of intellectual capital is crucial when it comes to the performances of modern banks, given the dynamic competitive environment in which they operate today. However, regardless of that, the literature that focuses precisely on the settings of these financial organizations is insufficiently represented and fragmented. This research, based on the application of the content analysis method, provides a structured review of the literature on the specifics of managing intellectual capital in banks. Further research could analyse the impact of intellectual capital on the performances of banks operating in the Republic of Serbia.

Information protection systems in e-banking

Because it is implemented in a network environment, electronic banking is subject to various security risks. Therefore, in order to safely use banking services electronically, it is necessary to identify potential threats through the analysis of network infrastructure and application characteristics, as well as to respond to them by applying appropriate protection measures.

Application of the EDAS method in the evaluation of bank efficiency in Serbia

Recently, as it is known, the evaluation of the performance (efficiency) of banks is increasingly performed on the basis of multi-criteria analysis. With this in mind, this paper analyzes the efficiency of banks in Serbia based on the EDAS method. In this context, adequate measures have been proposed to improve the efficiency of banks in Serbia in the future. The obtained results of empirical research using the given method show that the efficiency of banks in Serbia has recently significantly improved. It was the best in 2019. It was positively influenced by numerous macro and micro factors (economic climate, living standard, political stability, digitalization of business).

Analysis of market concentration in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia

Analysis and measurement of the level of concentration of the banking market is a significant component of the efficient functioning of the economy, an indicator of the development of both the financial and real sectors and an indicator of the degree of competitiveness in the banking sector. This paper focuses on research and analysis of the level of concentration in the banking market of the Republic of Serbia. The main task and goal of this research is to analyze the level of concentration in the banking market of the Republic of Serbia through the prism of two indicators: the concentration ratio of the five largest banks (CR5) and Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index (HHI), for the period from 2009 to 2019. The results of the research showed the absence of concentration (overall) in the domestic banking market, but also the existence of a trend (growth of market share of the five largest banks) which indicates that, in the future, there could be distortions of competition.

Sustainable finance: Evolution or revolution in the banking sector

Sustainable Development nowadays became a dominant paradigm for both public and private sectors. Several Strategic Agendas such as European Green Deal, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the SDGs, Climate Action and others, at their core values have a great set of actions ranging from reduction of the CO2 levels, through financing of particular projects, to the improvement of general welfare of the economies and societies. Due to the funding gap, there is a growing interest for private sector financing, particularly sustainable financing, and its role and contribution to the mentioned ultimate goals. The objective of the research is to analyze the factors and progress that have been made in setting up the framework in sustainable financing at the EU and international level. This paper will aim to identify the direction and the channels of its potential impact on the banking sector, as well as to describe ways in which this new culture is developing in the banking sector. The paper will particularly try to identify if the banking sector is proactive or reactive, by observing initiatives and projects at the international, European, and local level that have been developing for the last two decades, and based on that, to try to assess if a concept of sustainability and sustainable finance represent an evolution (upgrade of the existing culture and practice) or a revolution (new paradigm) in the banking sector.