Scoring at Halftime

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Palacios-Huerta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Influential Theory

This chapter is concerned with the idea of scoring at halftime but with a more scientific perspective. It suggests that what happens at halftime in some soccer games scores big in terms of allowing us to test an influential theory in economics: the efficient-markets hypothesis. The theory posits that the stock market processes information so completely and quickly that any relevant news would be incorporated fully into the stock's price before anyone had the chance to act on it. Simply put, unless one knew information that others did not know, no stock should be a better buy than any other. If the theory is correct—that is, if observed changes in stock prices are unpredictable—there is not much we can do to gain an advantage over other traders, except perhaps to try to identify the news that causes stock prices to rise and fall and to understand the size of any likely price jump.

Stock Market Bubbles? A Reply

1995 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 655-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene N. White
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Bubbles ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Predictable Returns

Research in finance is guided by powerful intuitions from models of efficient markets. However, researchers have uncovered a number of puzzles that are not explained by these models. Such anomalies include the excess volatility of stock prices, the closed-end mutual fund paradox, and the mean reversion in stock prices that produces predictable returns for long holding periods.1 Whereas financial economists all recognize the existence of these puzzles, they disagree about how they can be explained. Robert J. Shiller argues, for example, that efficient-markets models cannot hope to explain these anomalies and looks to alternatives that incorporate fads.2 In contrast, John H. Cochrane believes that the puzzles can be explained by improved models of fundamentals.3

scholarly journals Valuation Ratios As Stock Market Predictors

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Barry Wilbratte
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Dividend Yield ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Valuation Ratios

<p class="MsoBlockText" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Using bivariate causality tests, this paper examines price-earnings (PE) and dividend yield (DY) ratios and finds that they do not predict future stock returns but that they do predict future earnings and dividends, lending support to the efficient markets hypothesis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>(JEL: G12, G14)</span></span></span></p>

scholarly journals Efficient Markets Hypothesis in the time of COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Rational Behavior ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Constant Growth

This paper examines how the largest stock market of the world, the U.S., and particularly the S&P500 index, reacted during the COVID-19 outbreak (02.01.2020-30.04.2020). Using simple financial and corporate analysis (adopting Constant Growth Model) procedures for our theoretical framework, we juxtapose the released news with the respective market performance in order to examine if the stock market always incorporated the available information in time. We show that the market in some sub-periods was not moving as it was expected, and the runs-test statistically confirmed our assumptions that the US stock market was not efficient during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that in some cases the market does not incorporate the news instantly, is irrational, and non-sensible. All these make the market’s behavior unpredictable for a rational asset pricing model because as this paper shows even the simplest financial theories could explain rational behavior, but the market presented a different performance.   

scholarly journals The Impact Of Weekly Money Supply Announcements ON Stock Market Returns: A Multiprocess Mixture Model Approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
James P. LeSage ◽  
Andrew Solocha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Mixture Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Multiple Models ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Impact

This study provides evidence concerning the impact of anticipated and unanticipated components of the weekly money supply announcements on stock market returns in the United States and Canada on the date after the announcement. The innovative aspect of this study is the use of a multiprocess mixture model recently proposed by Gordon and Smith (1990) for modeling time series that are subject to several forms of potential discontinuous change and outliers. The technique involves running multiple models in parallel with recursive Bayesian updating procedures which extend the standard Kalman filter. The results provide strong evidence in favor of the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unanticipated component of the money supply announcement influences the stock market returns in both the United States and Canada.The use of OLS estimated in the present study produces results which suggest that both anticipated and unanticipated components of the money supply announcement exert a statistically significant influence on stock market returns in both countries. In contract, the multiprocess mixture model estimation method produces results which support the efficient markets hypothesis. The difference in findings between OLS and multiprocess estimation methods is attributed to the ability of the multiprocess techniques to model discontinuous structural shifts in the parameters and accommodate outliers in the stock return-weekly money relationship. The multiprocess mixture method provides evidence that numerous discontinuities and outliers exist in the stock market returns-weekly money relation and produces posterior probabilities for the multiple models running in parallel. These probabilities suggest that the OLS model has low posterior probability relative to the structural shift and outlier models which suggest poor inferences regarding the significance of anticipated and unanticipated money arise from the use of OLS estimation techniques.

scholarly journals Decision-making under Market Indeterminacy

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Shi Yun
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Research And Practice ◽  
The Past ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Abnormal Profits

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is the focusing topic in the past 50 years of financial market researches. Many empirical studies are then provided that want to test EMH but have no consensus. The perception of EMH determines the attitude and strategy of participants and regulators in financial market. One perception of EMH argues that investors’ behavior of seeking abnormal profits and arbitrage drives prices to their ‘‘correct’’ value. Investigating the “correct” value derives the concept of “market indeterminacy”. It means the inability to determine whether stock prices are efficient or inefficient. Market indeterminacy pervades stock markets because “correct” prices are unknown because of imperfect information and model sensitivity. Market indeterminacy makes arbitrage risky and makes event studies unreliable in some policy and litigation applications. The concept of market efficiency is needed to be re-recognized considering the mechanism of price formation. In order to further research and practice in law and financial market, there needs a view from the “jumping together” of disparate disciplines. Adaptive Markets Hypothesis(AMH) that using the evolutionary principles in financial market is a new viewpoint oncognitive decision and deserves to be paid more attention to.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

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