scholarly journals A Testing of Efficient Markets Hypothesis in Indonesia Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 219 ◽  
pp. 99-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanuar Andrianto ◽  
Adrian Rishad Mirza
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis

scholarly journals Valuation Ratios As Stock Market Predictors

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Shirvani ◽  
Barry Wilbratte
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Dividend Yield ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Valuation Ratios

<p class="MsoBlockText" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Using bivariate causality tests, this paper examines price-earnings (PE) and dividend yield (DY) ratios and finds that they do not predict future stock returns but that they do predict future earnings and dividends, lending support to the efficient markets hypothesis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>(JEL: G12, G14)</span></span></span></p>

Scoring at Halftime

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Palacios-Huerta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Influential Theory

This chapter is concerned with the idea of scoring at halftime but with a more scientific perspective. It suggests that what happens at halftime in some soccer games scores big in terms of allowing us to test an influential theory in economics: the efficient-markets hypothesis. The theory posits that the stock market processes information so completely and quickly that any relevant news would be incorporated fully into the stock's price before anyone had the chance to act on it. Simply put, unless one knew information that others did not know, no stock should be a better buy than any other. If the theory is correct—that is, if observed changes in stock prices are unpredictable—there is not much we can do to gain an advantage over other traders, except perhaps to try to identify the news that causes stock prices to rise and fall and to understand the size of any likely price jump.

scholarly journals Efficient Markets Hypothesis in the time of COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Rational Behavior ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Constant Growth

This paper examines how the largest stock market of the world, the U.S., and particularly the S&P500 index, reacted during the COVID-19 outbreak (02.01.2020-30.04.2020). Using simple financial and corporate analysis (adopting Constant Growth Model) procedures for our theoretical framework, we juxtapose the released news with the respective market performance in order to examine if the stock market always incorporated the available information in time. We show that the market in some sub-periods was not moving as it was expected, and the runs-test statistically confirmed our assumptions that the US stock market was not efficient during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that in some cases the market does not incorporate the news instantly, is irrational, and non-sensible. All these make the market’s behavior unpredictable for a rational asset pricing model because as this paper shows even the simplest financial theories could explain rational behavior, but the market presented a different performance.   

scholarly journals The Impact Of Weekly Money Supply Announcements ON Stock Market Returns: A Multiprocess Mixture Model Approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
James P. LeSage ◽  
Andrew Solocha
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Mixture Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Multiple Models ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Impact

This study provides evidence concerning the impact of anticipated and unanticipated components of the weekly money supply announcements on stock market returns in the United States and Canada on the date after the announcement. The innovative aspect of this study is the use of a multiprocess mixture model recently proposed by Gordon and Smith (1990) for modeling time series that are subject to several forms of potential discontinuous change and outliers. The technique involves running multiple models in parallel with recursive Bayesian updating procedures which extend the standard Kalman filter. The results provide strong evidence in favor of the efficient markets hypothesis that only the unanticipated component of the money supply announcement influences the stock market returns in both the United States and Canada.The use of OLS estimated in the present study produces results which suggest that both anticipated and unanticipated components of the money supply announcement exert a statistically significant influence on stock market returns in both countries. In contract, the multiprocess mixture model estimation method produces results which support the efficient markets hypothesis. The difference in findings between OLS and multiprocess estimation methods is attributed to the ability of the multiprocess techniques to model discontinuous structural shifts in the parameters and accommodate outliers in the stock return-weekly money relationship. The multiprocess mixture method provides evidence that numerous discontinuities and outliers exist in the stock market returns-weekly money relation and produces posterior probabilities for the multiple models running in parallel. These probabilities suggest that the OLS model has low posterior probability relative to the structural shift and outlier models which suggest poor inferences regarding the significance of anticipated and unanticipated money arise from the use of OLS estimation techniques.

scholarly journals Sorismo en el contexto del geunismo

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Sánchez-Seco López
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Body Politic ◽  
The Body ◽  
The Political ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
Economic Philosophy ◽  
The One ◽  
Regulatory Proposals ◽  
Economic Globalisation

En el contexto de una obra mucho más amplia y en ciernes, que propone como único sistema plenamente legítimo aquél cuyo cuerpo político viene constituido por la totalidad de habitantes del planeta, es conveniente traer a colación la filosofía política y económica de George Soros, porque aporta una visión muy diferente a la aplicada por los endiosados economistas que no supieron ver con antelación la Gran Recesión global en la que seguimos inmersos. La relación entre la realidad y el pensamiento es clave en el sorismo, como también lo es la distinción entre los diversos tipos de ciencias. La hipótesis de la eficiencia en los mercados también es cuestionada, junto con el concepto de equilibrio en economía, la incertidumbre y la falibilidad. También se acomete la crítica del fundamentalismo de mercado y a las propuestas regulatorias. Y todo en el contexto de una globalización económica poco política.Within the context of a much wider and developing piece proposing as only fully legitimate system the one the body politic of which is composed of the totality of inhabitants on the planet, it is convenient to bring to us the political and economic philosophy of George Soros for it adds a very different vision to that applied by the deified economists who could not in advance see the global Great Recession in which we keep on living. The relation between reality and thought is key within Sorism, as it is the distinction amongst the several kinds of sciences. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis is also put into question side by side with the concept of equilibrium in Economics, uncertainty, and fallibility. The critique of market fundamentalism is also implemented as well as the regulatory proposals. And all of it taking place within the context of a scarcely political but very economic globalisation.

scholarly journals FRACTAL MARKETS HYPOTHESIS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: SCALING, INVESTMENT HORIZONS AND LIQUIDITY

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250065 ◽  
Author(s):  
LADISLAV KRISTOUFEK
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Investment Horizon ◽  
Heterogenous Agents ◽  
Efficient Markets Hypothesis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Underlying Processes

We investigate whether the fractal markets hypothesis and its focus on liquidity and investment horizons give reasonable predictions about the dynamics of the financial markets during turbulences such as the Global Financial Crisis of late 2000s. Compared to the mainstream efficient markets hypothesis, the fractal markets hypothesis considers the financial markets as complex systems consisting of many heterogenous agents, which are distinguishable mainly with respect to their investment horizon. In the paper, several novel measures of trading activity at different investment horizons are introduced through the scaling of variance of the underlying processes. On the three most liquid US indices — DJI, NASDAQ and S&P500 — we show that the predictions of the fractal markets hypothesis actually fit the observed behavior adequately.

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