scholarly journals The Reaction of Stock Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries to Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-34
Author(s):  
Abdullah Saeed S Alqahtani ◽  
Hongbing Ouyang ◽  
Adam Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This study investigates if the changes in economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. can explain the returns on stock markets of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The study also examines how the stock market returns of the six GCC countries respond to the changes in economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. The results demonstrate that changes in economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. are not significantly linked with the returns on all the stock markets except Oman stock market, which shows a statistical significant negative relationship with the changes in economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. Controlling for the effects of the U.S. stock market and oil price, returns on all the six GCC markets including Oman show insignificant coefficients. The returns on all the stock markets do not respond to the changes in economic policy uncertainty. The results of Granger causality tests show that the changes in economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. do not cause the returns of all the six GCC stock markets.

THE ROLES OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CRYPTOCURRENCY AND STOCK MARKETS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
LINGLING QIAN ◽  
YUEXIANG JIANG ◽  
HUAIGANG LONG ◽  
RUOYI SONG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mixed Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

We are the first to explore the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the COVID-19 pandemic on the correlation between the cryptocurrency index CRIX and the world stock market portfolio, as well as the hedging properties of CRIX. To this end, we mainly apply the dynamic conditional correlation model with mixed data sampling regressions, a threshold vector autoregressive model and the generalized impulse response function. We demonstrate that the correlation is influenced by the uncertainty stance of the economy and behaves differently in low-, medium- and high-uncertainty periods. Most of the abnormal market relations exist in high levels of EPU or during the COVID-19 period, and the impact of global EPU is greater than that of EPU originating in the United States, Europe, Russia and China. Moreover, the CRIX can serve as a hedge asset against the world stock market. The high (low) level of EPU has a significantly positive (negative) effect on the optimal hedge ratio of CRIX, which increases significantly during the COVID-19 period. Our findings have implications for risk management, portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.

scholarly journals US Economic Policy Uncertainty and GCC Stock Market Performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-242
Author(s):  
Saeed Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Economy Policy

AbstractThe study evaluates the effect of economy policy uncertainty of US on gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries’ stock market returns. The GCC countries are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Granger Causality Tests (GCT) was done primarily to evaluate if economy policy uncertainty granger cause on GCC stock market returns. The analysis established that oil prices granger cause stock market returns for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE; the same is not true on changes in economic policy uncertainty of US cause on the stock market returns. Changes in economy policy uncertainty in US granger causes on stock market returns of Bahrain. On the other hand, economy policy uncertainty in US does not cause stock market returns in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis establishes that economy policy uncertainty in US negatively responds to the stock market returns of the GCC countries.

scholarly journals The Economic Policy Uncertainty in China, the United States, and Europe: The Empirical Impact on Chinese Stock Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Wannakomol Supachart
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Chinese Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Markets ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China, the United States, and Europe, which are influent to the Chinese stock markets. We employed Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with relative variables including the EPU indices and three Chinese stock markers indices to display the impulse responses of the markets to the EPUs. Our results indicate that the Chinese stock markets negatively respond to their domestic economic policy uncertainty in the first, second, and third month after the EPU shocks. Moreover, we also found the negative responses of the Chinese markets to the EPU from the United States that require five months to rebalance the markets. However, the Chinese markets seem positively respond to the shocks of the economic policy uncertainty in Europe and also took five months to archive market rebalancing. The significant correlation of the economic policy uncertainty between China and the United States resulted in cross-sectional correlation estimates among the EPU indices. Furthermore, there is the reasonable interesting result to claim that the economic policy uncertainty in China is statistically influenced by their own trade and fiscal policy uncertainty that may be considered to be related with China-US trade war in our conclusion.

scholarly journals The effects of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Evidence from Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-84
Author(s):  
Cristiane Gea ◽  
Luciano Vereda ◽  
Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto ◽  
Marcelo Cabus Klotzle
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Excess Stock Returns ◽  
Dividend Growth

This article investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the Brazilian stock market. We link excess returns and dividend growth rates to the economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2016) and other control variables. In recent years, Brazil has experienced political tensions, which affected its economic policy. Therefore, this country is the most suitable environment to test the hypothesis that this measure of economic policy uncertainty has an informational content not wholly reflected in the usual constructs of economic uncertainty and economic distress. Our results show that economic policy uncertainty (i) correlates negatively with current excess stock returns; (ii) correlates positively with future excess stock returns, showing itself to be a good predictor of future performance of the stock market; (iii) is not significantly related to future dividend growth rates; and (iv) anticipates changes in discount rates.

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