scholarly journals The Economic Policy Uncertainty in China, the United States, and Europe: The Empirical Impact on Chinese Stock Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Wannakomol Supachart
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Chinese Markets ◽  
Chinese Stock Markets ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China, the United States, and Europe, which are influent to the Chinese stock markets. We employed Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with relative variables including the EPU indices and three Chinese stock markers indices to display the impulse responses of the markets to the EPUs. Our results indicate that the Chinese stock markets negatively respond to their domestic economic policy uncertainty in the first, second, and third month after the EPU shocks. Moreover, we also found the negative responses of the Chinese markets to the EPU from the United States that require five months to rebalance the markets. However, the Chinese markets seem positively respond to the shocks of the economic policy uncertainty in Europe and also took five months to archive market rebalancing. The significant correlation of the economic policy uncertainty between China and the United States resulted in cross-sectional correlation estimates among the EPU indices. Furthermore, there is the reasonable interesting result to claim that the economic policy uncertainty in China is statistically influenced by their own trade and fiscal policy uncertainty that may be considered to be related with China-US trade war in our conclusion.

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES: PRE-PANDEMIC EVIDENCE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan Romih
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The World ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
The Impact

Although the Covid-19 pandemic (the Great Lockdown), which began in March 2020, is not over yet (mainly due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as Delta), there is already a growing body of evidence that suggests that the Covid-19 pandemic has contributed to an increase in economic policy uncertainty in the United States and the rest of the world. In this paper, I examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on industrial production in the United States before the Covid-19 pandemic. Using vector autoregression, I found that industrial production in the United States responds negatively to a positive economic policy uncertainty shock in the United States. This suggests that US economic policymakers need to prevent economic policy uncertainty in the United States

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1344-1357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Işık ◽  
Ercan Sirakaya-Turk ◽  
Serdar Ongan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Impact

The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever before and sensitive to uncertainties related to a variety of economic policies decisions of all stakeholders and governments. These perceived uncertainties may be the culprit in shrinking the size of overall economic activity. Under increasing uncertainties, travel and vacation plans of consumers can be canceled or postponed. Therefore, policy-related economic uncertainties are expected to affect tourism demand beyond well-established economic and noneconomic factors. In this study, we explore the efficacy and the impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting the tourism demand on international tourist arrivals (a measure of tourism demand) to the United States from Mexico and Canada over the period of January 1996–September 2017. The findings of the study reveal that EPU is a significant predictor as increases in the EPU index lead to decreases in tourism demand to the United States. Canadian tourists seem to be more sensitive to EPUs. Increases in the EPU index cause them to reduce Canadians’ vacations to the United States proportionally more than the Mexicans. To enhance the explanatory power of current models, the uncertainty can be a theoretically significant construct thus needs to be included when calibrating demand models.

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States on Unemployment of Black and White Americans: Pre-pandemic Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 155-173
Author(s):  
Dejan Romih ◽  
◽  
mojca Ramšak ◽  
Alenka Kavkler ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Racial Groups ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
White Americans ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Black And White ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty in the United States on unemployment of black and white Americans before the COVID-19 pandemic/recession. Our evidence shows that a positive economic policy uncertainty shock leads to an increase in the unemployment rate for members of both racial groups, which is in line with our expectations. However, our evidence also shows that economic political uncertainty in the United States is affecting the unemployment rate of black Americans faster and more strongly.

scholarly journals Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect CO2 Emissions? Empirical Evidence from the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Wang ◽  
Kefeng Xiao ◽  
Zhou Lu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run

This paper aims to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (measured by the World Uncertainty Index—WUI) on the level of CO2 emissions in the United States for the period from 1960 to 2016. For this purpose, we consider the unit root test with structural breaks and the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) model. We find that the per capita income promotes CO2 emissions in the long run. Similarly, the WUI measures are positively associated with CO2 emissions in the long run. Energy prices negatively affect CO2 emissions both in the short run and the long run. Possible implications of climate change are also discussed.

THE ROLES OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CRYPTOCURRENCY AND STOCK MARKETS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
LINGLING QIAN ◽  
YUEXIANG JIANG ◽  
HUAIGANG LONG ◽  
RUOYI SONG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mixed Data ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

We are the first to explore the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the COVID-19 pandemic on the correlation between the cryptocurrency index CRIX and the world stock market portfolio, as well as the hedging properties of CRIX. To this end, we mainly apply the dynamic conditional correlation model with mixed data sampling regressions, a threshold vector autoregressive model and the generalized impulse response function. We demonstrate that the correlation is influenced by the uncertainty stance of the economy and behaves differently in low-, medium- and high-uncertainty periods. Most of the abnormal market relations exist in high levels of EPU or during the COVID-19 period, and the impact of global EPU is greater than that of EPU originating in the United States, Europe, Russia and China. Moreover, the CRIX can serve as a hedge asset against the world stock market. The high (low) level of EPU has a significantly positive (negative) effect on the optimal hedge ratio of CRIX, which increases significantly during the COVID-19 period. Our findings have implications for risk management, portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.

scholarly journals CAN FIRMS WITH THE BEST TRAINING PROGRAM WITHSTAND THE STORM OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY?

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 206-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vichet Sum
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Training Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Public Firms ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Weighted Index ◽  
Monthly Changes

This study examines if firms whose training programs ranked as the best ones in the United States can withstand the changes in economic policy uncertainty. The regression analysis of monthly changes in economic policy uncertainty index, monthly returns on the CRSP value-weighted index, and monthly returns on an equal-weighted portfolio of public firms in the United States ranked consecutively from 2006 to 2011 in the top 50 of the Training Top 125 shows that the increased changes in economic policy uncertainty negatively affect the portfolio returns; however, this effect is not statistically significant at the 1% level. The result from regressing monthly returns on CRSP value-weighted index on the monthly changes of economic policy index yields a statistically significant negative coefficient at the 1% level, and this coefficient is more negative than the coefficient obtained from regressing the monthly portfolio returns on the monthly changes in economic policy uncertainty. This study provides empirical evidence of the ability of firms in the US with the best training program to withstand the storm of economic policy uncertainty better than the whole market. In other words, the findings suggest that firms with the best training program are more prepared than the whole market in responding to the changes in economic policy uncertainty.

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