scholarly journals Multiple Breakpoint Test on Crude Oil Price

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seuk Wai Phoong ◽  
Seuk Yen Phoong ◽  
Sedigheh Moghavvemi ◽  
Kok Hau Phoong
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Alternative Energy Sources ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of structural changes as well as breaks on oil price fluctuations is studied in this article. There are a few channels, such as domestic prices and inflation, that cause the effect of oil price to pass through the economy. The higher crude oil price is immediately followed by the increase in oil products such as gasoline and heating oil. The direct effects continue as people choose alternative energy sources, leading to the increase in price. Besides, the indirect effect on inflation as a result of the behavioral responses of the firms and workers which is known as the “second round” effects in which higher wages is being demanded. This article uses exploratory data analysis to discover the patterns of the variables’ series and then examines the relationship between oil price and consumer price index. Multiple breakpoint test is thereafter used to identify the structural changes in time-varying variables.

scholarly journals Pass-Through of Crude-oil Price Shocks to Consumer Prices in Nigeria: Pre and Post 2008 Global Financial Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 115-143
Author(s):  
Eric I. Otoakhia
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the responses of consumer price index (CPI) to crude oil price shocks in the pre- and post-2008 global financial crisis. The study used the Structural Vector Autoregressive model to analyse monthly data from 2000M01 to 2019M12. The impulse response analysis showed that for pre and post-crisis periods, oil price shocks have a positive impact on CPI. This impact was an insignificant direct momentary increase in pre-crisis CPI before dissipating. Conversely, the impact on post crisis CPI response tends to be stable and long-lasting starting from the third month. The confidence bands for the post crisis CPI are large, indicating the long-lasting positive response in the CPI pose no significant threat to price stability in the long run horizon. In conclusion, CPI response varies in terms of intensity for pre and post crisis periods. In terms of level of significance, the effect of the shocks on CPI is transient and insignificant in both periods. The post crisis oil price shock is not a significant channel that created price instability in Nigeria after the crisis and this study recommend partial deregulation of energy price should be maintained. Establishing oil price –inflation pass-through, external shocks like financial crisis should be accounted for.

Impacts of Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reduction of Energy Subsidies on the Indian Economy: A CGE Modelling Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-360
Author(s):  
Amrita Ganguly ◽  
Koushik Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Cash Transfer ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Transfer Scheme ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Cge Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Energy Subsidy

This study analyzes the impacts of international crude oil fluctuations and energy subsidy (on LPG, petrol and diesel) removals on Indian economy. We have applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling as our relevant methodology, following Shoven and Whalley ( J Econ Lit XXII: 1007–1051, 1984) based on energy social accounting matrix (ESAM) of India for the year 2007–2008. It is seen that the international crude oil price fluctuations has a greater effect in determining gross domestic product (GDP) and exchange rate as compared to the effect of energy subsidy removal. With decrease in international crude oil price, GDP increases and exchange rate appreciates. On the other hand, with decrease in energy subsidy, GDP decreases and exchange rate appreciates. Moreover, with introduction of direct cash transfer scheme in lieu of subsidy for LPG, it is seen that the impact on demand of LPG (substitution effect) is negligible indicating that LPG is an essential commodity.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on Forecasting Stock Prices: An Integration of Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Štifanić ◽  
Jelena Musulin ◽  
Adrijana Miočević ◽  
Sandi Baressi Šegota ◽  
Roman Šubić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stationary Wavelet Transform ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that mostly affects the respiratory system. At the time of this research being performed, there were more than 1.4 million cases of COVID-19, and one of the biggest anxieties is not just our health, but our livelihoods, too. In this research, authors investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, more specifically, the impact of COVID-19 on the financial movement of Crude Oil price and three US stock indexes: DJI, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite. The proposed system for predicting commodity and stock prices integrates the stationary wavelet transform (SWT) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BDLSTM) networks. Firstly, SWT is used to decompose the data into approximation and detail coefficients. After decomposition, data of Crude Oil price and stock market indexes along with COVID-19 confirmed cases were used as input variables for future price movement forecasting. As a result, the proposed system BDLSTM + WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in terms of five-day Crude Oil price forecast.

Protocol to Assess the Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on Future Asphalt Prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812199207
Author(s):  
Kaylyn M. Cardinal ◽  
Mohamed Khalafalla ◽  
Jorge Rueda-Benavides
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Time Gap ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

It is clear for the transportation industry that asphalt prices are heavily affected by changes in the crude oil market. This occurs because asphalt is a byproduct of the process of refining crude oil. However, there is still a lack of research on assessing the economic implications of this relationship. This paper assesses those implications through an innovative statistical process designed to quantify the economic correlation between asphalt and crude oil price fluctuations in Alabama. The proposed statistical process is used in this paper to model the relationship between the Alabama Department of Transportation’s (ALDOT’s) monthly asphalt price index and a national crude oil index published by the US Energy Information Administration. The process quantifies the relationship between these two commodities in relation to two metrics: (1) the time gap between an observed change in the crude oil index and its corresponding impact on the asphalt price index and (2) the magnitude of that impact. It was found that the most likely time gap between crude oil and asphalt price fluctuations in Alabama is 3 months, with a change ratio of 0.58. This means that a 1% increase in the price of crude oil would most likely affect the Alabama asphalt market 3 months later with a price increase of about 0.58%. Recognizing that these are just average values, the paper also presents a risk assessment tool that provides ALDOT with the probability of occurrence of different scenarios taking into consideration the observed variability in time gaps and change ratios.

The impact of rising international crude oil price on China's economy: an empirical analysis with CGE model

2007 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Fan ◽  
Jian Ling Jiao ◽  
Qiao Mei Liang ◽  
Zhi Yong Han ◽  
Yi Ming Wei
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
China’S Economy

scholarly journals Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
S M Rashed Jahangir ◽  
Betul Yuce Dural
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth in the Caspian Sea region. Here, the study applies ordinary least square (OLS) method and Granger causality test using time series data from 1997 to 2015 to ascertain the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth. The results, according to the OLS method, evince that crude oil and natural gas have a significant impact on economic growth of the region. Alongside, considering causality test, gross domestic product (GDP) does Granger cause (unidirectional) crude oil price and export which denotes that GDP can help to forecast crude oil price and export; however, crude oil price and export cannot help to forecast GDP. Surprisingly, this direction is unlikely for GDP and natural gas. GDP and natural gas have unidirectional, but opposite causal relationship, i.e., natural gas price and export do Granger cause GDP which signify that natural gas price and export can help to forecast GDP; however, GDP cannot help to forecast crude oil price and export.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON STOCK MARKET:EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM US

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 330-337
Author(s):  
Shanaz hakim , Tugut Tursoy,
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
P Value ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Impact

The analysis of this research focuses on the interactive relationship among the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the real GDP and the stock market of United State. This empirical investigation uses data is in between 1990 and 2018 with the Vector Auto-regression (VAR) analysis, and multiple regressions with its assumption were used in order to analyses data.  Findings, oil price and economic growth are very important determinates of stock market in US because the p-value of this were less than the common alpha α =0.05. For instance, the crude oil price had positive impact on stock market because for each unit increasing of crude oil price, the stock market will increase by (0.276901) after holding all other variable constant. However, we find that GDP has negative impact on the participations of increasing the stock market.

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