Socioeconomic Effects of COVID-19 in Mexico: A Multisectoral Approach and Policy Options

The health crisis caused by the spread of COVID-19 has caused a profound social and economic disruption in Mexico. Our purpose in this paper is to contribute to the knowledge about the economic impact of the pandemic in Mexico and to evaluate social policy options to mitigate its effects. We do so based on a multisectoral-multiplier model and the most recent Social Accounting Matrix for Mexico, with which we estimate the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 as well the likely effects of two alternatives for mitigating them: an unconditional cash transfer scheme for households living in poverty, and the establishment of an unemployment insurance program for workers who have lost their jobs during the pandemic. We find that the first alternative alleviates more value added and loss of income, and thus has a greater effect in reducing inequality and the incidence of poverty.

On the impact of canopy model complexity on simulated carbon, water, and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence fluxes

Lack of direct carbon, water, and energy flux observations at global scales makes it difficult to calibrate land surface models (LSMs). The increasing number of remote-sensing-based products provide an alternative way to verify or constrain land models given their global coverage and satisfactory spatial and temporal resolutions. However, these products and LSMs often differ in their assumptions and model setups, for example, the canopy model complexity. The disagreements hamper the fusion of global-scale datasets with LSMs. To evaluate how much the canopy complexity affects predicted canopy fluxes, we simulated and compared the carbon, water, and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) fluxes using five different canopy complexity setups from a one-layered canopy to a multi-layered canopy with leaf angular distributions. We modeled the canopy fluxes using the recently developed land model by the Climate Modeling Alliance, CliMA Land. Our model results suggested that (1) when using the same model inputs, model-predicted carbon, water, and SIF fluxes were all higher for simpler canopy setups; (2) when accounting for vertical photosynthetic capacity heterogeneity, differences between canopy complexity levels increased compared to the scenario of a uniform canopy; and (3) SIF fluxes modeled with different canopy complexity levels changed with sun-sensor geometry. Given the different modeled canopy fluxes with different canopy complexities, we recommend (1) not misusing parameters inverted with different canopy complexities or assumptions to avoid biases in model outputs and (2) using a complex canopy model with angular distribution and a hyperspectral radiation transfer scheme when linking land processes to remotely sensed spectra.

Inheritance, gifts and the accumulation of wealth for low-income households

Many low-income households in rich countries have very little wealth, but the role of intergenerational wealth transmission in underpinning this deficit is not known. This article seeks to fill that gap by investigating patterns of past wealth transfer receipt for low-income versus other households in seven rich countries and assessing the contribution that these transfers, or their absence, make to current wealth levels. We find that households on low incomes are relatively disadvantaged in terms of intergenerational transfers received in the past, both in terms of the likelihood of having received any and the amounts received by those who do benefit from such transfers. The role that this disadvantage plays in the linkage between current low-income and low wealth is assessed and evidence presented that it is significant. Simulation of a universal wealth transfer scheme or ‘capital endowment’ on reaching adulthood for two countries shows that such a policy could lead to a marked decline in the proportion of low-income adults with negative or no wealth. This and alternative or complementary policy responses to these wealth deficits merit the most serious attention.

Verification of the chemical subsystem of the regional climate model RegCM-CHEM4

New simulation results, obtained from the chemical version of the regional climate model RegCMCHEM4, are presented for Siberian region. The verification of the chemical subsystem of the model with non-hydrostatic dynamical core is carried out using the atmospheric chemical transfer scheme CBMZ (Carbon Bond Mechanism-Z). To define chemical emissions the global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) emission dataset prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), is used. For gas phase species, we have prepared the 6 hourly chemical boundary conditions from our modified version of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4). Quantitative estimates of methane emission in the atmosphere of the Siberian region have been obtained.

Fiscal Transfers in the Spatial Economy

Many countries shift substantial public resources across jurisdictions to mitigate spatial economic disparities. We use a general equilibrium model with multiple asymmetric regions, labor mobility, and costly trade to carve out the aggregate implications of fiscal transfers. Calibrating the model for Germany, we find that transfers indeed deliver smaller disparities across regions. This comes at the cost of lower national output, however, because economic activity is diverted away from core cities and toward remote areas with low productivity. But despite this loss in output per capita by about 2 percent in our baseline specification, welfare still increases by 0.07 percent because the transfer scheme countervails overcongestion in large cities. If the optimal transfer regime was implemented, welfare would increase by 0.06 percent. (JEL H77, J61, R12, R13, R23)

Radiative-dynamical Simulation of Jupiter’s Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

We present a two-dimensional radiative-dynamical model of the combined stratosphere and upper troposphere of Jupiter to understand its temperature distribution and meridional circulation pattern. Our study highlights the importance of radiative and mechanical forcing for driving the middle atmospheric circulation on Jupiter. Our model adopts a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme with recent observations of Jovian gas abundances and haze distribution. Assuming local radiative equilibrium, latitudinal variation of hydrocarbon abundances is not able to explain the observed latitudinal temperature variations in the mid-latitudes. With mechanical forcing parameterized as a frictional drag on zonal wind, our model produces ∼2 K latitudinal temperature variations observed in low to mid-latitudes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, but cannot reproduce the observed 5 K temperature variations in the middle stratosphere. In the high latitudes, temperature and meridional circulation depend strongly on polar haze radiation. The simulated residual mean circulation shows either two broad equator-to-pole cells or multi-cell patterns, depending on the frictional drag timescale and polar haze properties. A more realistic wave parameterization and a better observational characterization of haze distribution and optical properties are needed to better understand latitudinal temperature distributions and circulation patterns in the middle atmosphere of Jupiter.

Load Transfer Path Search and Its Evaluation between Networks in Consideration of the Mobile Energy Storage of Electric Vehicles

Load transfer is an important way of restoring a power supply after equipment failure or maintenance. However, current methods ignore cooperation between networks and users, and they also fail to take into account the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) potential of electric vehicles (EVs). In this paper, a load transfer scheme between transmission and distribution networks is proposed, considering the mobile energy storage capacities of electric vehicles. First, the mobility characteristic and the available discharge capacity of EVs are analyzed on the basis of the parking generation rate. Then, the breadth-first algorithm is used to search the load transfer paths within and between stations, and an edge matching method is proposed to realize the conversion between networks with different voltage levels. Lastly, the optimal combination weighting method was adopted to combine subjective and objective index weights and to evaluate power supply paths. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is validated in a case composed of an IEEE 30-node network and an IEEE 57-node network, with four typical scenarios.

Progressive Taxation versus Progressive Targeted Transfers in the Design of a Sustainable Value Added Tax System

Value added tax (VAT) has proven to be the most stable and revenue productive of all components of the tax system. However, for such a tax system to be policy sustainable over time, taxpayers must consider it fair, and it must be viewed by the National Treasury to be productive in terms of raising substantial revenue and administratively feasible by the VAT-implementing agency. The VAT system in Belize has been a highly productive component of the revenue system, and it was designed to be progressive, but in arriving at this position, over 40% of the personnel of VAT tax administration are engaged in processing tax refunds to promote progressivity and to fight against the fraud that such a refund system incubates. This is an unsustainable position for any tax system to remain intact over time. This paper evaluates the attempt by the government of Belize to introduce progressivity into their single-rate VAT through zero rating and exemption from taxation of many goods and services that are major expenditure items of poor households. The distributional impacts are measured by a tax reform that eliminates all zero ratings except for exports and a few exemptions. By eliminating zero-rated items and significantly reducing the number of exempt items, the impact of the reform adds a regressive element, although overall, the VAT system remains progressive. However, 75% of the revenues raised by this reform would be paid by the top 40% of the income distribution. The increased revenues could finance an expansion of an existing transfer scheme that exclusively targets poor households. In addition, reforms would eliminate at least 40% of the personnel costs of administering the current VAT system.