scholarly journals A hybrid model for modelling the salinity of the Tafna River in Algeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khemissi Houari ◽  
Tarik Hartani ◽  
Boualem Remini ◽  
Abdelouhab Lefkir ◽  
Leila Abda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract In this paper, the capacity of an Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for predicting salinity of the Tafna River is investigated. Time series data of daily liquid flow and saline concentrations from the gauging station of Pierre du Chat (160801) were used for training, validation and testing the hybrid model. Different methods were used to test the accuracy of our results, i.e. coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E), root of the mean squared error (RSR) and graphic techniques. The model produced satisfactory results and showed a very good agreement between the predicted and observed data, with R2 equal (88% for training, 78.01% validation and 80.00% for testing), E equal (85.84% for training, 82.51% validation and 78.17% for testing), and RSR equal (2% for training, 10% validation and 49% for testing).

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of ANFIS and GA-ANFIS for Predicting Stock Market Indices

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Farnaz Ghashami ◽  
Kamyar Kamyar
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Improve Performance ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

A model of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) trained with an evolutionary algorithm, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented in this paper. Further, the model is tested on the NASDAQ stock market indices which is among the most widely followed indices in the United States. Empirical results show that by determining the parameters of ANFIS (premise and consequent parameters) using GA, we can improve performance in terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R-Squared) in comparison with using solely ANFIS.

scholarly journals Wavelet discrete transform, ANFIS and linear regression for short-term time series prediction of air temperature

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Munandar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Inference System

This paper investigates the ability of Discrete Wavelet Transform and Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System in time-series data modeling of weather parameters. Plotting predicted data results on Linear Regression is used as the baseline of the statistical model. Data were tested in every 10 minutes interval on weather station of Bungus port in Padang, Indonesia. Mean absolute errors (MAE), the coefficient of determination (R2), Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance indicators. The result of Plotting ANFIS data against linear regression using 1-input data is the optimal values combination of output predictions.

scholarly journals FPGA-Based Implementation of a Multilayer Perceptron Suitable for Chaotic Time Series Prediction

Technologies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Pano-Azucena ◽  
Esteban Tlelo-Cuautle ◽  
Sheldon Tan ◽  
Brisbane Ovilla-Martinez ◽  
Luis de la Fraga
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Chaotic Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Maximum Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Inference System

Many biological systems and natural phenomena exhibit chaotic behaviors that are saved in time series data. This article uses time series that are generated by chaotic oscillators with different values of the maximum Lyapunov exponent (MLE) to predict their future behavior. Three prediction techniques are compared, namely: artificial neural networks (ANNs), the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and least-squares support vector machines (SVM). The experimental results show that ANNs provide the lowest root mean squared error. That way, we introduce a multilayer perceptron that is implemented using a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) to predict experimental chaotic time series.

Multilayer Optimization Approach for Fuzzy Systems

2011 ◽  
pp. 1121-1129
Author(s):  
Ivan N. Silva ◽  
Rogerio A. Flauzino
Keyword(s):  
Energy Function ◽  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Fuzzy Inference Systems ◽  
Energy Functions ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Inference Systems

The design of fuzzy inference systems comes along with several decisions taken by the designers since is necessary to determine, in a coherent way, the number of membership functions for the inputs and outputs, and also the specification of the fuzzy rules set of the system, besides defining the strategies of rules aggregation and defuzzification of output sets. The need to develop systematic procedures to assist the designers has been wide because the trial and error technique is the unique often available (Figueiredo & Gomide, 1997). In general terms, for applications involving system identification and fuzzy modeling, it is convenient to use energy functions that express the error between the desired results and those provided by the fuzzy system. An example is the use of the mean squared error or normalized mean squared error as energy functions. In the context of systems identification, besides the mean squared error, data regularization indicators can be added to the energy function in order to improve the system response in presence of noises (from training data) (Guillaume, 2001). In the absence of a tuning set, such as happens in parameters adjustment of a process controller, the energy function can be defined by functions that consider the desired requirements of a particular design (Wan, Hirasawa, Hu & Murata, 2001), i.e., maximum overshoot signal, setting time, rise time, undamped natural frequency, etc. From this point of view, this article presents a new methodology based on error backpropagation for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems, which can be then designed as a three layers model. Each one of these layers represents the tasks performed by the fuzzy inference system such as fuzzification, fuzzy rules inference and defuzzification. The adjustment procedure proposed in this article is performed through the adaptation of its free parameters, from each one of these layers, in order to minimize the energy function previously specified. In principle, the adjustment can be made layer by layer separately. The operational differences associated with each layer, where the parameters adjustment of a layer does not influence the performance of other, allow single adjustment of each layer. Thus, the routine of fuzzy inference system tuning acquires a larger flexibility when compared to the training process used in artificial neural networks. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, such methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno.

Thermal Errors Modeling of a CNC Machine’s Axis Using Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic

2011 ◽  
Vol 110-116 ◽  
pp. 2976-2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Eskandari ◽  
Behrooz Arezoo ◽  
Amir Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Thermal Errors ◽  
Squared Error

Thermal errors of CNC machines have significant effects on precision of a workpiece. One of the approaches to reduce these errors is modeling and on-line compensating them. In this study, thermal errors of an axis of the machine are modeled by means of artificial neural networks along with fuzzy logic. Models are created using experimental data. In neural networks modeling, MLP type which has 2 hidden layers is chosen and it is trained by backpropagation algorithm. Finally, the model is validated with the aid of calculating mean squared error and correlation coefficients between outputs of the model and a checking data set. On the other hand, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is utilized in fuzzy modeling which uses neural network to develop membership functions as fuzzifiers and defuzzifiers. This network is trained by hybrid algorithm. At the end, model validation is done by mean squared error like previous method. The results show that the errors of both modeling techniques are acceptable and models can predict thermal errors reliably.

scholarly journals Marine Predators Algorithm for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Italy, USA, Iran and Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. A. Al-qaness ◽  
Ahmed A. Ewees ◽  
Hong Fan ◽  
Laith Abualigah ◽  
Mohamed Abd Elaziz
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Marine Predators ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
The Usa

The current pandemic of the new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or COVID-19, has received wide attention by scholars and researchers. The vast increase in infected people is a significant challenge for each country and the international community in general. The prediction and forecasting of the number of infected people (so-called confirmed cases) is a critical issue that helps in understanding the fast spread of COVID-19. Therefore, in this article, we present an improved version of the ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) model to forecast the number of infected people in four countries, Italy, Iran, Korea, and the USA. The improved version of ANFIS is based on a new nature-inspired optimizer, called the marine predators algorithm (MPA). The MPA is utilized to optimize the ANFIS parameters, enhancing its forecasting performance. Official datasets of the four countries are used to evaluate the proposed MPA-ANFIS. Moreover, we compare MPA-ANFIS to several previous methods to evaluate its forecasting performance. Overall, the outcomes show that MPA-ANFIS outperforms all compared methods in almost all performance measures, such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), and Coefficient of Determination( R 2 ). For instance, according to the results of the testing set, the R 2 of the proposed model is 96.48%, 98.59%, 98.74%, and 95.95% for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively. More so, the MAE is 60.31, 3951.94, 217.27, and 12,979, for Korea, Italy, Iran, and the USA, respectively.

scholarly journals Evaluation of different types of artificial intelligence methods to model the suspended sediment load in Tigris River

2018 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 03003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Al-Mukhtar
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Suspended Sediment ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Suspended Sediment Load ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Tigris River ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Modeling of suspended sediment load in rivers has a major role in a proper management of water resources. Artificial intelligence has been identified as an efficient way to model the complex nonlinear hydrological relationship. In this study, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), in addition to two different kinds of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) i.e. feedforward and radial basis networks were used and compared to model the suspended sediment load (SSL) in Tigris River-Baghdad using the streamflow discharge as input. To this end, an intermittent data of SSL and streamflow were collected over the period 1962-1981 from Sarai station in Baghdad. 70 % of these data was used to calibrate (train) the networks and the remaining 30% for the validation (test). The coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) were used to judge whether the observed and modelled data belong to the same distribution. Results revealed that the ANFIS model outperform the other methods. R2, RMSE, and NSE of ANFIS during the calibration phase were equal to 0.58, 75617, and 0.58, respectively and during the validation were 0.72, 27944, and 0.59, respectively. Therefore, ANFIS approach is recommended to estimate the river suspended sediment load.

scholarly journals Efficacy of ANFIS-GOA technique in flood prediction: a case study of Mahanadi river basin in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abinash Sahoo ◽  
Sandeep Samantaray ◽  
Siddhartha Paul
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Large River ◽  
Anfis Model ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm

Abstract Accurateness in flood prediction is of utmost significance for mitigating catastrophes caused by flood events. Flooding leads to severe civic and financial damage, particularly in large river basins, and mainly affects the downstream regions of a river bed. Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have been effectively utilized as a tool for modeling numerous nonlinear relationships and is suitable to model complex hydrological systems. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to propose an effective hybrid system by integrating an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model with meta-heuristic Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) and Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA) for flood prediction in River Mahanadi, India. Robustness of proposed meta-heurestics are assessed by comparing with a conventional ANFIS model focusing on various input combinations considering 50 years of monthly historical flood discharge data. The potential of the AI models is evaluated and compared with observed data in both training and validation sets based on three statistical performance evaluation factors, namely root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE) and Wilmott Index (WI). Results reveal that robust ANFIS-GOA outperforms standalone AI techniques and can make superior flood forecasting for all input scenarios.

scholarly journals Prediksi Kecepatan Angin Menggunakan Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy (ANFIS) dan Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Nerfita Nikentari ◽  
Martaleli Bettiza ◽  
Helen Sastypratiwi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Radial Basis Function ◽  
Basis Function ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Radial Basis

Angin sebagai salah satu fenomena alam yang mempengaruhi berbagai aspek dalam kehidupan manusia baik pengaruh positif maupun negatif. Aspek ini berperan besar dalam ekonomi, pariwisata, pembangunan, transportasi maupun perdagangan masyarakat. Data angin dalam hal ini kecepatan angin belum dapat diketahui secara pasti nilainya oleh karena itu perlu adanya prediksi. Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) dan Radial Basis Function Neural Networkc(RBFNN) adalah algoritma yang dapat digunakan untuk prediksi data. Penelitian ini  menggunakan ANFIS dan RBFNN untuk memprediksi kecepatan angin. Data prediksi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series. Data kecepatan angin diperoleh dari BMKG (Badan Meteorologi Klimatogi dan Geofisika) Tanjungpinang, Kepualuan Riau. Hasil prediksi dengan kedua metode ini dibandingan dengan data asli untuk mengetahui metode mana yang lebih akurat dalam prediksi data. Hasil pengujian menggunakan kedua algoritma memperlihatkan akurasi terbaik (paling mendekati data asli/target) diperoleh oleh RBFNN yaitu dengan nilai RMSE adalah 0,1766 dan hasil RMSE ANFIS adalah 1,1456.

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