scholarly journals Principles and Criteria for using Statistical Parametric Models and Conditional Models for Valuation of Multi-Component Real Estate

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-43
Author(s):  
Tomasz Adamczyk ◽  
Agnieszka Bieda ◽  
Piotr Parzych
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
Conditional Models ◽  
Valuation Process

Abstract The complexity of multi-component real properties results from the possibility of identifying various components in legal, physical or functional terms. The possibility of distinguishing various functional elements of real properties, combined with the specificity resulting from their market properties, is problematic when applying the comparative approach to real estate valuation. In this case, the valuation procedure can be implemented using statistical models: the parametric model or the conditional one. This research paper demonstrates the construction of the parametric and conditional models taking into account the geometric and pricing attributes of multi-component real estate. The authors paid attention to adjusting the models to the available market data. They also specified the conditions for the use of statistical models in the real estate valuation process. Based on the analytical and accounting considerations, the estimation criteria for the parametric model and the conditional model were defined, which allow the correct application of these models at the stages of the real estate market analysis and the real estate valuation process.

scholarly journals Application of AHP Method in Assessment of the Influence of Attributes on Value in the Process of Real Estate Valuation

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Dmytrów ◽  
Sebastian Gnat
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Abstract Property valuation in the comparative approach requires the determination of the impact of market characteristics on the formation of prices on the local real estate market. Valuers have a variety of methods for determining weights. Some of them require the collection of a sufficiently large database of information on transactions. However, this is not always possible. In the absence of sufficient data, alternative approaches, including an expert approach, may be used. The goal of the article is the proposal of an expert approach at the stage of assessing the influence of attributes on the value of the real estate. The AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) method will be used. On its basis, pairwise comparisons of the importance of attributes will be done by experts (valuers). By means of the AHP method, the weights of each attribute will be obtained and, subsequently, the influence of each attribute on the real estate value will be assessed. Research will be done on the basis of 318 real estates in Szczecin.

scholarly journals Use of Statistical Models for Simulating Transactions on the Real Estate Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer ◽  
Katarzyna Szczepankowska
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The regularities and relations between real estate prices and the factors that shape them may be presented in the form of statistical models, thanks to which the diagnosis and prediction of prices is possible. A formal description of empirical observation presented in the form of regressive models also offers a possibility for creating certain phenomena in a virtual dimension. Market phenomena cannot be fully described with the use of determinist models, which clarify only a part of price variation. The predicted price is, in this situation, a special case of implementing a random function. Assuming that other implementations are also possible, regressive models may constitute a basis for simulation, which results in the procurement of a future image of the market. Simulation may refer both to real estate prices and transaction prices. The basis for price simulation may be familiarity with the structure of the analyzed market data. Assuming that this structure has a static character, simulation of real estate prices is performed on the basis of familiarity with the probability distribution and a generator of random numbers. The basis for price simulation is familiarity with model parameters and probability distribution of the random factor. The study presents the core and theoretical description of a transaction simulation on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment regarding transaction prices of office real estate located within the area of the city of Olsztyn. The result of the study is a collection of virtual real properties with known features and simulated prices, constituting a reflection of market processes which may take place in the near future. Comparison between the simulated characteristic and actual transactions in turn allows the correctness of the description of reality by the model to be verified.

Real Estate Valuation Fraud

2015 ◽  
pp. 278-291
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Personal Gain ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Market

Valuation profession is a link between the borrower and the lender. Fraud is an intentional deliberate deception committed for illegitimate personal gain. There are several forms of real estate fraud, especially when the real estate market is facing a boom. The most widespread types of real estate fraud include the preparation of two sets of settlement statements, property flipping, and fraudulent qualifications. There are mainly three types of valuation to look out for. Valuation may be received from an unauthorized agency. Furthermore, a real valuation may be altered from the original to generate profit. Thirdly, intentional inflation of the value of a property will hide the real market value. It is usually difficult to spot real estate fraudulent activities, so deep investigations and professionalism is needed. This chapter explores real estate fraud.

Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio d’Amato
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Valuation Process

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

scholarly journals INCOME APPROACH AND PROPERTY MARKET CYCLE

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio D’AMATO
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Bubble ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
Income Approach ◽  
Valuation Process

This paper is focused on a proposed valuation method including real estate market cycle analysis in real estate valuation process. Starting from early works on this field (d'Amato 2003) the work highlight the dangerous gap between academic research on property market cycles and professional practice of property valuation. The danger of this gap comes from the fact that in spite it is well documented that the property market has a “natural” cyclical behaviour, the opinions of value based on income approaches still relies on assumption of a stable or perpetually growing (or decreasing) income. This may be one generating factors of the real estate bubble and the subsequent financial markets crisis experienced recently. This paper offers a general introduction on cyclical capitalization as a further family of valuation methodologies based on income approach. This method includes in the traditional Dividend Discount Model more than one g-factor in order to plot property market cycle. An empirical application of Cyclical Capitalization is offered to the office market of the Eastern London.

scholarly journals Search For Dissimilarity Factors For Nominally Indiscernible Facilities

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-72
Author(s):  
Jacek Zyga
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Sufficient Knowledge ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Data Search ◽  
Valuation Process

Abstract The similarity between premises, statutorily defined as the comparability of the compiled objects, is, in practice, identified by the statement of identity or the proximity of evaluation of the selected features describing the complied objects. Independent of the nature of these features (qualitative or quantitative), as well as of the method of identifying the proximity of their prices, the quest process for similar premises ends in the compilation of these premises into a group, which continues to remain inconsistent to some extent. The inevitable heterogeneity of the prices of premises summarized in this way leads to the suspicion that other features which had not been taken into account during the current stages of analysis exist. The identification of these features can significantly improve the quality of the valuation process based on the selected premises. The presented article discusses a method of identifying the plausible number of indiscernible factors influencing the differentiation of unitary prices in an analyzed set of premises, in the event when the collected information on these premises does not provide sufficient knowledge on the reasons behind such a differentiation. The result of the performed research can, in practice, be applied to program the procedures for the data search, and hence reduce the costs related to the acquisition of information on the premises (e.g. from the real estate market).

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