Оценка сравнительного потенциала увеличения торговли регионов Дальнего Востока со странами АТР

В рамках современного подхода к оценке гравитационных зависимостей, на основе применения метода квазимаксимального правдоподобия Пуассона, определены сравнительные значения торговых барьеров, а также сравнительный потенциал расширения торговли регионов Дальнего Востока с ключевыми экономиками Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (далее 􀀐 АТР). При соотношении оценок, полученных в рамках традиционного и современного подходов к оценке гравитационных зависимостей, показаны схожие результаты и расхождения. Современный подход к оценке указал на заметный потенциал для расширения торговли регионов Дальнего Востока со странами Северо-Восточной Азии, что подтверждает выводы о наращивании торговых взаимодействий между крупными и близлежащими экономиками в результате либерализации торговли. The objective of the paper is to assess comparative trade barriers between the regions of the Russian Far East and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region based on the modern approach to assessing gravity models, as well as to assess the potential for increasing mutual trade. The author has shown that the countries of the Asia-Pacific region are the largest trading partners for the Russian Far East (RFE), characterizing perceptible differences in the geographical and regional structure of the trade interactions. Since the customs duties on RFE exports are high, it is the main source of the tariff burden on the mutual trade. The findings indicate the following similar results between the traditional and modern approaches: the lowest comparative value of the trade barriers is typical for the trade between the RFE and the Republic of Korea; the trade between the RFE on the one hand and China and the Republic of Korea on the other has intensified; reducing the tariff barriers was not sufficient to boost the trade between the RFE and the Asia-Pacific countries; trade restrictions initiated by the Russian side resulted in a transition from the tariff barriers to the institutional ones; the groups of the RFE regions with similar characteristics of the comparative potential for expanding trade relations with the Asia-Pacific countries were identified. The evaluation shows some differences in outcomes between the two approaches. First, under the traditional approach the trade barriers were generally overestimated, so the estimates using the modern approach were more realistic, reflecting the possible changes in the price of foreign goods. Second, using the modern assessment approach, expanding the trade between the RFE regions and the close markets in the Northeast Asia (Korea, China and Japan) has a greater potential than with the remote countries (USA and South-Asian countries). These assessments support the early findings that trade interactions between the large and neighboring economies has a high potential as a result of trade liberalization.