Forecasting Long-term Housing Demand based on APC Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-34
Author(s):  
Chang Moo Lee ◽  
Hyun Tae Joo ◽  
Je Sun Han
Keyword(s):  
Housing Demand

scholarly journals Modeling Building Stock Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 723
Author(s):  
Antti Kurvinen ◽  
Arto Saari ◽  
Juhani Heljo ◽  
Eero Nippala
Keyword(s):  
Model Development ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Test Arena ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Impact

It is widely agreed that dynamics of building stocks are relatively poorly known even if it is recognized to be an important research topic. Better understanding of building stock dynamics and future development is crucial, e.g., for sustainable management of the built environment as various analyses require long-term projections of building stock development. Recognizing the uncertainty in relation to long-term modeling, we propose a transparent calculation-based QuantiSTOCK model for modeling building stock development. Our approach not only provides a tangible tool for understanding development when selected assumptions are valid but also, most importantly, allows for studying the sensitivity of results to alternative developments of the key variables. Therefore, this relatively simple modeling approach provides fruitful grounds for understanding the impact of different key variables, which is needed to facilitate meaningful debate on different housing, land use, and environment-related policies. The QuantiSTOCK model may be extended in numerous ways and lays the groundwork for modeling the future developments of building stocks. The presented model may be used in a wide range of analyses ranging from assessing housing demand at the regional level to providing input for defining sustainable pathways towards climate targets. Due to the availability of high-quality data, the Finnish building stock provided a great test arena for the model development.

Working from home and long-term housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Tajaddini ◽  
Hassan F. Gholipour ◽  
Amir Arjomandi
Keyword(s):  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Housing Wealth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
Advanced Economies

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explain the potential long-term impacts of working from home on housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies. Design/methodology/approach This study is descriptive research and It supports the arguments by providing some emerging evidence from property markets in developed countries. Findings The authors argue that due to the unique nature of the COVID-19 crisis, it will have a different and long-term impact on housing wealth inequality. Changes in the working arrangements of many professionals will change the housing demand dynamic across different suburbs and may lead to a reduction of the housing wealth gap in the long term. In this paper, the authors propose five mechanisms that may impact housing wealth inequality. Research limitations/implications Long-term data is required to test the proposed conceptual model in this study and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth across and within suburbs of large cities. Practical implications Policymakers and regulators may benefit from the discussions and suggestions provided in this study and consider the proposed avenues on how new changes in the working environment (remote working) may result in a reduction of housing wealth inequality. Originality/value This study presents a new perspective about the potential long-term impacts of working from home that is posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth inequality in large cities of developed economies.

A Study on Income Variables Effect of Long-Term Housing Demand

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
Mihwa Lim ◽  
Hyuntae Joo ◽  
Changmoo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Housing Demand

hort-term Rentals, Housing Markets and COVID-19: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evidence from Four Austrian Cities

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-57
Author(s):  
Justin Kadi ◽  
Antonia Schneider ◽  
Roman Seidl
Keyword(s):  
Rental Housing ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
The Media ◽  
Current Shift ◽  
Theoretical Considerations ◽  
Rental Housing Market ◽  
A Current

Prior to the onset of the pandemic, evidence on the conversion of regular rental housing into permanent holiday homes has fuelled concerns that Airbnb and other short-term rentals contribute to the shortage of affordable homes and to the displacement of regular residents in cities with high housing demand. When the pandemic set in, the media was quick to speculate that holiday homes would be returned to the regular rental market. This paper provides some theoretical reflections on the factors that are driving and impeding such a development and presents preliminary results from an ongoing research project that empirically traces the impacts of COVID-19 on the rental housing market based on an analysis of real estate listings in four large Austrian cities. We argue that a current shift to the regular rental market is likely, but that the medium- and long-term development is uncertain. Empirically, we demonstrate that such a shift has occurred in all four cities considered. We do not find evidence, however, that the increased rental housing supply has dampened rent levels.

scholarly journals Framework for Long-Term Public Housing Supply Plan Focusing on Small-Scale Offsite Construction in Seoul

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5361
Author(s):  
Hosang Hyun ◽  
Young-Min Lee ◽  
Hyung-Geun Kim ◽  
Jin-Sung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Public Housing ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Modular Construction ◽  
Research Framework ◽  
The Government ◽  
Housing Units

The public housing demand in Seoul has been continuously increasing, but the available land for housing is insufficient. To meet the demand, the Seoul government is planning to develop small-scale housing in urban areas through various methods. Construction activities for increasing housing capacity cause negative environmental impacts, and this inevitably leads to an increase in the number of civil complaints. The complaints can be mitigated by using offsite construction (OSC) for fabricating components. However, OSC remains underdeveloped in Korea owing to concerns over high project costs. To promote OSC, the government must develop a long-term plan to secure demand for OSC. For such a plan, the number and feasibility of applicable sites in Seoul must be estimated. This study suggests a two-stage research framework: (1) estimate the number of applicable sites in Seoul using GIS and (2) conduct feasibility analyses of these sites through architectural planning. The estimated number of sites was equal to the expected supply of small-scale housing units in Seoul for 8 years, and the selected case sites were identified to be feasible. Therefore, the use of OSC for developing small-scale housing units in Seoul is reasonable. This research differs from previous studies in that the previous use of qualitative studies to promote modular construction was replaced with a quantitative analysis that included the entire Seoul area. Using the research framework, the Seoul government can develop a specific long-term plan based on the quantitative research analysis. Furthermore, manufacturers can develop plans based on the government plan and deliver returns on the higher initial costs. The contractors can reduce the higher project cost and doing so is expected to mitigate the negative perception and to promote modular construction in Korea.

scholarly journals The Bangkok Housing Market: Past Performance And Future Prospects

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Pairote Srivarasat ◽  
Winai Wongsurawat
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Summary Data ◽  
Boom Period

This paper provides an overview of the evolution of the housing market in Bangkok beginning in the boom period of the 1990s up to the most recent developments. Key summary data are provided and a simple model of housing supply is developed. While the market has recovered from its biggest crisis, there remain future challenges, some of which are likely to present themselves in other countries as well. The influence of Chinese investment and the risk of capital flight represent medium-term threats. In the long term, an aging population and growing income and wealth inequality are likely to impede prospects for broad-based growth in housing demand.

scholarly journals Weyerhaeuser: A Good Reputation Instilled in Culture

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Bochniarz ◽  
Jacek Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Global Leader ◽  
Good Reputation

Abstract The paper addresses the concept of Weyerhaeuser’s culture which was transformed as the result of mergers and implemented policies against recession. The culture, particularly their long-term vision and values played a crucial role in Weyerhaeuser’s company. Frederick Weyerhaeuser, founder of the firm, realized that a firm’s reputation was the most important asset. Significant increases in housing demand over 1997-2005 had led to an enormous pressure for faster deliveries and innovations in the construction industry. Weyerhaeuser decided to become global leader by transforming its culture and launching the iLevel concept7.

Exercising the Condominium Tenure Option: A Case Study of the Canadian Housing Market

1993 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 961-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Meligrana
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Economic Resources ◽  
The Other ◽  
Housing Preferences ◽  
Life Cycle Stages ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Housing Corporation

With data from the National Survey of Condominium Occupants conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the relevant differences between a sample of renters who decided to purchase a condominium and a sample of homeowners who decided to sell their dwelling to buy a condominium are described. The subpopulation differed with respect not only to life-cycle stages and household economic resources but also to stated housing preferences and future housing plans. For example, previous renters were found to be younger households in the earlier stages of the life cycle who purchased lower priced condominiums with more borrowed funds than previous homeowners. A proportion of previous renters, however, were found to be entering the condominium sector late in life. Previous owners, the majority of whom moved from the freehold ownership market, preferred condominium ownership as means of gaining greater physical security and less direct maintenance responsibilities and, therefore, searched for only condominium housing. On the other hand, tenants sought initially to gain entrance into the freehold ownership market before deciding on the purchase of condominiums. Previous tenants are planning to use the equity of their condominiums to move into single detached houses within a short period of time, whereas for previous owners the condominium sector presents a final stage in housing demand. It is concluded that life-cycle stages and household economic resources continue to dominate a household's tenure transition, but this must also be combined with tenure and housing preferences as well as long-term or future housing plans.

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