Assessing the Predictive Power of Vulnerability Measures: Evidence from Panel Data for Argentina and Chile

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Bérgolo ◽  
Guillermo Cruces ◽  
Andrés Ham
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Biased Estimates

This article carries out a validation exercise of vulnerability measures as predictors of poverty at the aggregate and micro levels based on short and long term panel data for Argentina and Chile. It then compares their performance to that of deprivation indicators. The main findings indicate that while vulnerability measures are good predictors of poverty in the aggregate, the same does not occur at household level. These results imply that while useful, vulnerability estimates require incorporating shocks to attenuate biased estimates if they are to be used for targeting purposes.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals Determinants of Financial Moroccan Banks Performance: Approach by the Cointegration Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 141-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bayoud ◽  
Nabil Sifouh ◽  
Mohamed Chemlal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Internal Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to test the long-term relationship between banks financial performance and two groups of variables, internal variables specific to the bank, and exogenous macroeconomic variables. To appreciate this long-term relationship, we applied the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares FMOLS method as a technique for estimation cointegrated panel data. Over a period of 26 semesters (2004 to 2016), our results show that a set of internal variables explains the financial performance of banks. As for external factors, economic growth explains this performance, while inflation has no predictive power of performance at least for our sample of the main Moroccan listed banks.

scholarly journals Are financing decisions of family-owned SMEs different? Empirical evidence using panel data

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zélia Serrasqueiro ◽  
Paulo Maçãs Nunes ◽  
Jacinto Vidigal da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Order Theory ◽  
Pecking Order Theory ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Financing Decisions ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Capital Structure

AbstractThis paper analyses if ownership structure is an important determinant of capital structure decisions, on the basis of two sub-samples of family-owned and non-family owned SMEs, and using panel data models. The results suggest that family ownership is an important determinant for: i) the variations of short and long-term debt stimulated by financial deficit; ii) the speed of adjustment of short and long-term debt towards the respective target levels; and iii) the relationships between determinants and short-term debt and long-term debt. In general, the capital structure decisions of family-owned SMEs are closer to what is forecast by trade-off theory than those of non-family owned SMEs, whereas the capital structure decisions of non-family owned SMEs are closer to the forecasts of pecking order theory than those of family-owned SMEs.

scholarly journals Are financing decisions of family-owned SMEs different? Empirical evidence using panel data

2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zélia Serrasqueiro ◽  
Paulo Maçãs Nunes ◽  
Jacinto Vidigal da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Order Theory ◽  
Pecking Order Theory ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Financing Decisions ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Capital Structure

AbstractThis paper analyses if ownership structure is an important determinant of capital structure decisions, on the basis of two sub-samples of family-owned and non-family owned SMEs, and using panel data models. The results suggest that family ownership is an important determinant for: i) the variations of short and long-term debt stimulated by financial deficit; ii) the speed of adjustment of short and long-term debt towards the respective target levels; and iii) the relationships between determinants and short-term debt and long-term debt. In general, the capital structure decisions of family-owned SMEs are closer to what is forecast by trade-off theory than those of non-family owned SMEs, whereas the capital structure decisions of non-family owned SMEs are closer to the forecasts of pecking order theory than those of family-owned SMEs.

ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, KEMISIKINAN, DAN KORUPSI DI NEGARA ASEAN LOWER MIDDLE INCOME

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riska Dewi Putri ◽  
Hasdi Aimon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aim to indentify and analyze responses economic growth, poverty and corruption in ASEAN lower middle income countries. Type of this research is descriptive and associative, used a secondary panel data from 2010 to 2017. This research was conducted using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model through the analysis of Impulse Response Funtion (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) to determine the variability response of a particular variable due to the shock of other variables. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Variability of economic growth is not contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption in the short term, but in the long run the variability of economic growth is contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption. (2) In the short variability of poverty is not contributed by the shock of economic growth and corruption term, but in the long run economic growth and corruption contribute to influencing poverty variability. (3) The variability of corruption is contributed by the shock of economic growth and poverty in the short and long term.

Short- and Long-Term Results of Total vs Subtotal Thyroid- ectomies in the Surgical Treatment of Graves' Disease

Swiss Surgery ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert ◽  
Mariéthoz ◽  
Pache ◽  
Bertin ◽  
Caulfield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve ◽  
Nerve Palsy ◽  
Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve Palsy ◽  
Laryngeal Nerve ◽  
Long Term Results ◽  
Graves Disease ◽  
Laryngeal Nerve Palsy ◽  
Short And Long Term

Objective: Approximately one out of five patients with Graves' disease (GD) undergoes a thyroidectomy after a mean period of 18 months of medical treatment. This retrospective and non-randomized study from a teaching hospital compares short- and long-term results of total (TT) and subtotal thyroidectomies (ST) for this disease. Methods: From 1987 to 1997, 94 patients were operated for GD. Thirty-three patients underwent a TT (mostly since 1993) and 61 a ST (keeping 4 to 8 grams of thyroid tissue - mean 6 g). All patients had received propylthiouracil and/or neo-mercazole and were in a euthyroid state at the time of surgery; they also took potassium iodide (lugol) for ten days before surgery. Results: There were no deaths. Transient hypocalcemia (< 3 months) occurred in 32 patients (15 TT and 17 ST) and persistent hypocalcemia in 8 having had TT. Two patients developed transient recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy after ST (< 3 months). After a median follow-up period of seven years (1-15) with five patients lost to follow-up, 41 patients having had a ST are in a hypothyroid state (73%), thirteen are euthyroid (23%), and two suffered recurrent hyperthyroidism, requiring completion of thyroidectomy. All 33 patients having had TT - with follow-ups averaging two years (0.5-8) - are receiving thyroxin substitution. Conclusions: There were no instances of persistent recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy in either group, but persistent hypoparathyroidism occurred more frequently after TT. Long after ST, hypothyroidism developed in nearly three of four cases, whereas euthyroidy was maintained in only one-fourth; recurrent hyperthyroidy was rare.

Short- and long-term memory tasks predict working memory performance, and vice versa.

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Neath ◽  
Jean Saint-Aubin ◽  
Tamra J. Bireta ◽  
Andrew J. Gabel ◽  
Chelsea G. Hudson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Memory Performance ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Short And Long Term
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