ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, KEMISIKINAN, DAN KORUPSI DI NEGARA ASEAN LOWER MIDDLE INCOME

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riska Dewi Putri ◽  
Hasdi Aimon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aim to indentify and analyze responses economic growth, poverty and corruption in ASEAN lower middle income countries. Type of this research is descriptive and associative, used a secondary panel data from 2010 to 2017. This research was conducted using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model through the analysis of Impulse Response Funtion (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) to determine the variability response of a particular variable due to the shock of other variables. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Variability of economic growth is not contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption in the short term, but in the long run the variability of economic growth is contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption. (2) In the short variability of poverty is not contributed by the shock of economic growth and corruption term, but in the long run economic growth and corruption contribute to influencing poverty variability. (3) The variability of corruption is contributed by the shock of economic growth and poverty in the short and long term.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

scholarly journals INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Feri Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>This study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate  terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model  (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.</em><em></em></p><p align="right"> </p>

scholarly journals Crédito consignado: segmentos e efeitos econômicos

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-810
Author(s):  
Angélica Pott de Medeiros ◽  
Giulia Xisto de Oliveira ◽  
Reisoli Bender Filho
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recession ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Public ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Vector Estimation

Resumo: O cenário de instabilidade política, a recessão econômica e as mudanças nas regras de concessão de crédito pautaram o objetivo de examinar o relacionamento do crédito consignado, por segmento de concessão, com variáveis macroeconômicas, caso do consumo, da produção industrial e do produto agregado, na última década (2007-2017). Os resultados foram obtidos por meio da estimação do vetor de correção de erros, funções de impulso-resposta e decomposição da variância, possibilitando a análise das relações de curto e de longo prazo entre as séries temporais e indicaram que as diferentes modalidades do crédito consignado implicam efeitos distintos sobre as variáveis econômicas em curto prazo. O segmento de aposentados e pensionistas impacta positivamente ambas as variáveis analisadas, com destaque para os bens de consumo das famílias. Já a concessão ao setor privado, embora represente a menor parcela do crédito consignado concedido, mostrou elevada sensibilidade a alterações na oferta dessa modalidade de crédito, enquanto que o crédito ao setor público, de maior participação, apresentou efeitos reduzidos e de curta duração.Palavras-chave: Crédito consignado. Segmentos. Economia brasileira. Payroll loans: segments and economic effects Abstract: The environment of political instability, economic recession and changes in the rules of granting credit were guiders to aim to examine the payroll loans relationship, by concession segment, with macroeconomic variables, case of consumption, industrial production and aggregate product, in the last decade (2007-2017). The results obtained by error correction vector estimation, and functions of impulse-response and variance decomposition, making it possible to analyze the short- and long-term relationships between the time series and indicated that the different modalities of payroll loans imply different effects on economic short-term variables. With retirees and pensioners segment positively impact on both analyzed variables, highlighting the household consumption goods. The concession to the private sector, although it represents the smallest portion of payroll loans granted, it showed high sensitivity to the changes of this modality. About credit to the public sector, which has the biggest portion, it showed reduced and short-term effects.Keywords: Payroll loans. Segments. Brazilian economy.

scholarly journals Tracing Long- and Short-term Migrants for Participation in Demographic and Epidemiological Studies: Evidence from Senegal

Field Methods ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-57
Author(s):  
Mufaro Kanyangarara ◽  
Laetitia Douillot ◽  
Gilles Pison ◽  
Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye ◽  
Valerie Delaunay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Statistical Power ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Contact Information

Migration of participants in demographic and epidemiological studies results in missing data. One approach to reduce resulting losses in statistical power and potential biases is to follow up migrants at their new residence. We describe the follow-up of migrants who were eligible for participation in a trial of a new questionnaire to measure adult mortality in Niakhar, Senegal. We conducted a short inquiry in the migrant’s last known household to obtain contact information and then attempted to contact and interview 661 migrants who resided in Dakar, Mbour, and rural areas close to Niakhar. About two-thirds of migrants were successfully enrolled in the study. Having a contact phone number and knowing the name of the head of compound at destination increased the likelihood of successful enrollment. Following up migrants in demographic studies is feasible in low- and middle-income countries, including long-term migrants who have not been contacted for extended periods of time.

Privatisation, Myopia and the Long-Run Provision of Economic Infrastructure in Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Economic ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Infrastructure Provision ◽  
Economic Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

The privatisation of economic infrastructure in Australia that began in the 1980s has continued to be actively pursued by state and federal governments. Evaluations of the effects of the change of policy, ownership, control and regulatory arrangements that have accompanied privatisation and their impact on the longer-term stock of infrastructure and the growth of the economy have received less attention than the immediate privatisation decisions. This article reviews some of the studies that have been carried out to evaluate the impact of privatisation, focusing on long-term impacts on infrastructure provision. In particular, it discusses the myopia created by the emphasis on commercial transactions and managing markets that continues to shape the debate about the provision of infrastructure to meet Australia's economic, environmental and other objectives. Objectives have become even more difficult to achieve as an increasingly extensive and complex regulatory framework is required to manage privatised activities. This adds to costs and limits the potential for the introduction of new initiatives to address pressing problems. The issue is increasingly relevant, given the current perceived shortage of infrastructure and the flow-on effects of the current international financial crisis on Australia. The slow-down in economic growth accompanying the financial crisis is putting pressure on government budgets and threatening to perpetuate the existing policy bias towards short-term solutions, exacerbating the longer run problem of ensuring an adequate supply of public economic infrastructure.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC ON ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 251
Author(s):  
Rahardyan Haris Yuswinarto ◽  
Edy Yusuf Agung Gunanto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Co2 Gas ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Dynamic Time

Environmental degradation occurs is influenced by economic growth and the means of transportation that support it, besides that, the population size also affects the occurrence of environmental degradation. This study aims to determine the effect of economic growth, population growth and total of transportation on environmental degradation in short and long term. This research uses dynamic time series autoregressive distribution lag method. The results showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) variable had a significant positive effect in increasing CO2 gas emissions both in the short and long term. The variable amount of transportation has a positive and insignificant effect on the increase in CO2 gas emissions in the short term and has a negative effect in the long term. Meanwhile, population growth variable has a positive and significant effect in the short term and negative and significant in the long term.

scholarly journals PENGARUH NON PERFORMING FINANCING, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO, BEBAN OPERASIONAL PENDAPATAN OPERASIONAL DAN NET IMBALAN TERHADAP RETURN ON ASSETS (STUDI PADA BANK MAYBANK SYARIAH PERIODE 2012-2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-93
Author(s):  
Lely Awintasari ◽  
Maulida Nurhidayati
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Short And Long Term

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Operating Expenses operating income (BOPO) and Net Rewards (NI) ratio on Return On Assets of Maybank Syariah Bank. A bank's Return on Assets (ROA) is a ratio that shows the bank's success in making a profit. If the ROA obtained by a small bank as a result of the bank can suffer losses and hinder the growth of the bank. This research is a type of quantitative research with Error Correction Model method with a significance rate of 5%, with a total of 32 samples in the form of quarterly data published by Bank Maybank Syariah in 2012-2019. The findings in this study are that NPF negatively affects ROA in the short term but NPF has no effect on ROA in the long run. CAR has no effect on ROA in the short term but CAR has a positive effect on ROA in the long run. BOPO in the short and long term negatively affects ROA. NI in the short and long term has no effect on ROA. Simultaneously NPF, CAR, BOPO and NI both short-term and long-term affect ROA simultaneously. The amount of influence exerted in the short term is 89.20% while in the long term it is 88.57%. In order to increase ROA, Maybank Syariah Bank as much as possible to reduce the percentage of NPF and BOPO and can increase the CAR owned. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh rasio kuangan Non Performing Financing (NPF), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Beban Operasional Pendapatan Operasional (BOPO) dan Net Imbalan (NI) terhadap  Return On Assets Bank Maybank Syariah. Return on Assets (ROA) suatu bank merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan keberhasilan bank dalam menghasilkan keuntungan. Apabila ROA yang diperoleh bank kecil akibatnya bank dapat mengalami kerugian serta menghambat pertumbuhan bank tersebut. Penelitian ini berjenis penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode Error Correction Model dengan tingkat signifikansi 5%, dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 32 yang berupa data triwulan yang dipublikasikan oleh Bank Maybank Syariah tahun 2012-2019. Temuan pada penelitian ini adalah NPF berpengaruh negatif pada ROA dalam jangka pendek tetapi NPF tidak berpengaruh pada ROA dalam jangka panjang. CAR tidak berpengaruh pada ROA pada jangka pendek namun CAR berpengaruh positif terhadap ROA dalam jangka panjang. BOPO dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif pada ROA. NI dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh pada ROA. Secara simultan NPF, CAR, BOPO dan NI baik jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh terhadap ROA secara simultan. Besarnya pengaruh yang diberikan pada jangka pendek adalah 89,20% sedangkan pada jangka panjang sebesar 88,57%. Untuk dapat meningkatkan ROA, Bank Maybank Syariah sebisa mungkin untuk menurunkan persentase NPF dan BOPO serta dapat meningkatkan CAR yang dimiliki.

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