scholarly journals Simulation of the Global Coupled Climate/Ice Sheet System over Millennial Timescales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jeremy Fyke
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Stability Threshold ◽  
Ice Caps

<p>Ice sheets are important components of the Earth system that are expected to respond strongly to anthropogenic forcing of climate. The aim of this work is to use numerical climate and ice sheet modelling to identify and understand the millennial-scale interaction between the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GIS) and global climate. An initial modelling effort evaluated the response of ice shelves and ice sheets to future CO2 emission scenarios by quantifying the duration and magnitude of summer melt periods. A temperature threshold based on positive degree days was applied to bias-corrected University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) output spanning 1000 years into the future. The simulations indicated that an increase in summer melting over most of the GIS, the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, and large sections of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (where little present-day ablation occurs) could occur if future emissions are not curtailed. This initial work highlighted the need to assess the dynamic response of ice sheets to climate change. I therefore developed an ice sheet/climate model comprised of the UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice Sheet Model. Coupling these models required development of new techniques, including subgrid-scale energy balance calculations that incorporate a surface air temperature (SAT) model bias correction procedure. In testing the model, I found that climate model SAT bias, meltwater refreezing and albedo variations play an important role in simulated ice sheet evolution, particularly as more of the ice surface experiences melting conditions. The model realistically reproduced the AIS and GIS, and captured the surface mass balance (SMB) distributions for both ice sheets well for the present day, including narrow GIS ablation zones. The newly developed model was used to carry out a suite of experiments designed to assess the behavior of the GIS under elevated-CO2 conditions. A deglacial SMB-based GIS stability threshold was identified between 3-4x preindustrial atmospheric levels (PAL) of CO2. Below the threshold, GIS retreat still occurred but the ice ultimately stabilized in a ‘reduced ice sheet’ configuration, while at CO2 >= 4x PAL CO2, ice retreated to mountain ice caps. Ice sheet inception simulations indicated that above 4x PAL CO2, ice growth was limited, while at 4x PAL CO2 ice was able to reach the eastern Greenland coastline. Between 2-3x PAL CO2, separate ice caps in the southern and eastern mountains coalesced and exported ice onto the lowland plains. Large-scale ice sheet growth was limited until 1-2x PAL CO2. GIS ice loss increased with greater cumulative CO2 emissions in transient simulations. However, the ice sheet was able to briefly overshoot the CO2 stability threshold without experiencing drastic ice retreat due to the long response time of the simulated GIS relative to the rate of deep ocean carbon uptake.  Finally, several model experiments were carried out using the coupled model to examine the impact of ocean melt-driven AIS retreat on the oceanic circulation and structure. This retreat produced freshwater fluxes to the Southern Ocean that were of the same magnitude (and initially greater) than the background continental flux, and continued for 3000 years after the initial shift to high-melt conditions. The Ross and Weddell Seas became productive sea ice export regions, which resulted in higher salinities in these seas and very low ocean temperatures. Enhanced sea ice export and melt in the open Southern Ocean contributed to a slight shallowing and weakening of the North Atlantic Deepwater circulation cell, that would reinforce predicted trends expected as a result of future anthropogenic CO2 emissions.</p>

scholarly journals Simulation of the Global Coupled Climate/Ice Sheet System over Millennial Timescales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jeremy Fyke
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Stability Threshold ◽  
Ice Caps

<p>Ice sheets are important components of the Earth system that are expected to respond strongly to anthropogenic forcing of climate. The aim of this work is to use numerical climate and ice sheet modelling to identify and understand the millennial-scale interaction between the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GIS) and global climate. An initial modelling effort evaluated the response of ice shelves and ice sheets to future CO2 emission scenarios by quantifying the duration and magnitude of summer melt periods. A temperature threshold based on positive degree days was applied to bias-corrected University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) output spanning 1000 years into the future. The simulations indicated that an increase in summer melting over most of the GIS, the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, and large sections of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (where little present-day ablation occurs) could occur if future emissions are not curtailed. This initial work highlighted the need to assess the dynamic response of ice sheets to climate change. I therefore developed an ice sheet/climate model comprised of the UVic ESCM and the Pennsylvania State University Ice Sheet Model. Coupling these models required development of new techniques, including subgrid-scale energy balance calculations that incorporate a surface air temperature (SAT) model bias correction procedure. In testing the model, I found that climate model SAT bias, meltwater refreezing and albedo variations play an important role in simulated ice sheet evolution, particularly as more of the ice surface experiences melting conditions. The model realistically reproduced the AIS and GIS, and captured the surface mass balance (SMB) distributions for both ice sheets well for the present day, including narrow GIS ablation zones. The newly developed model was used to carry out a suite of experiments designed to assess the behavior of the GIS under elevated-CO2 conditions. A deglacial SMB-based GIS stability threshold was identified between 3-4x preindustrial atmospheric levels (PAL) of CO2. Below the threshold, GIS retreat still occurred but the ice ultimately stabilized in a ‘reduced ice sheet’ configuration, while at CO2 >= 4x PAL CO2, ice retreated to mountain ice caps. Ice sheet inception simulations indicated that above 4x PAL CO2, ice growth was limited, while at 4x PAL CO2 ice was able to reach the eastern Greenland coastline. Between 2-3x PAL CO2, separate ice caps in the southern and eastern mountains coalesced and exported ice onto the lowland plains. Large-scale ice sheet growth was limited until 1-2x PAL CO2. GIS ice loss increased with greater cumulative CO2 emissions in transient simulations. However, the ice sheet was able to briefly overshoot the CO2 stability threshold without experiencing drastic ice retreat due to the long response time of the simulated GIS relative to the rate of deep ocean carbon uptake.  Finally, several model experiments were carried out using the coupled model to examine the impact of ocean melt-driven AIS retreat on the oceanic circulation and structure. This retreat produced freshwater fluxes to the Southern Ocean that were of the same magnitude (and initially greater) than the background continental flux, and continued for 3000 years after the initial shift to high-melt conditions. The Ross and Weddell Seas became productive sea ice export regions, which resulted in higher salinities in these seas and very low ocean temperatures. Enhanced sea ice export and melt in the open Southern Ocean contributed to a slight shallowing and weakening of the North Atlantic Deepwater circulation cell, that would reinforce predicted trends expected as a result of future anthropogenic CO2 emissions.</p>

Asynchronously coupling the cryosphere and atmosphere in an energy-balance climate model

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 159-164
Author(s):  
Robert S. Steen ◽  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Final State ◽  
Coupling Parameters ◽  
Continental Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Model

A major component of the climate system on the 10 000-100 000 year time-scales is continental ice sheets, yet many of the mechanisms involved in the land-sea-ice processes that affect the ice sheets are poorly understood. In order to examine these processes in more detail, we have developed a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea-ice—continental-ice-sheet model (CCSLI model). This model includes a hydrologic cycle, a detailed surface energy and mass balance, a thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a zonally averaged dynamic ice-flow model with bedrock depression.Because of the variety of space and time-scales inherent in such a model, we have asynchronously coupled the land—ice model to the other components of the model. In this paper the asynchronous coupling is described and sensitivity studies are presented that determine the values of the asynchronous coupling parameters. Model simulations using these values allow the model to run nearly ten times faster with minimal changes in the final state of the ice sheet.

Causes and consequences of Southern Ocean change: the IPCC SROCC assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Meredith ◽  
Martin Sommerkorn ◽  
Sandra Cassotta ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Alexey Ekaykin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Ice Shelves

&lt;p&gt;Climate change in the polar regions exerts a profound influence both locally and over all of our planet.&amp;#160; Physical and ecosystem changes influence societies and economies, via factors that include food provision, transport and access to non-renewable resources.&amp;#160; Sea level, global climate and potentially mid-latitude weather are influenced by the changing polar regions, through coupled feedback processes, sea ice changes and the melting of snow and land-based ice sheets and glaciers.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reflecting this importance, the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) features a chapter highlighting past, ongoing and future change in the polar regions, the impacts of these changes, and the possible options for response.&amp;#160; The role of the polar oceans, both in determining the changes and impacts in the polar regions and in structuring the global influence, is an important component of this chapter.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With emphasis on the Southern Ocean and through comparison with the Arctic, this talk will outline key findings from the polar regions chapter of SROCC. It will synthesise the latest information on the rates, patterns and causes of changes in sea ice, ocean circulation and properties. It will assess cryospheric driving of ocean change from ice sheets, ice shelves and glaciers, and the role of the oceans in determining the past and future evolutions of polar land-based ice. The implications of these changes for climate, ecosystems, sea level and the global system will be outlined.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 603-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Goosse ◽  
V. Brovkin ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
R. Haarsma ◽  
P. Huybrechts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Low Latitudes

Abstract. The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 of the three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. LOVECLIM 1.2 includes representations of the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the land surface (including vegetation), the ice sheets, the icebergs and the carbon cycle. The atmospheric component is ECBilt2, a T21, 3-level quasi-geostrophic model. The ocean component is CLIO3, which consists of an ocean general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model. Its horizontal resolution is of 3° by 3°, and there are 20 levels in the ocean. ECBilt-CLIO is coupled to VECODE, a vegetation model that simulates the dynamics of two main terrestrial plant functional types, trees and grasses, as well as desert. VECODE also simulates the evolution of the carbon cycle over land while the ocean carbon cycle is represented by LOCH, a comprehensive model that takes into account both the solubility and biological pumps. The ice sheet component AGISM is made up of a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of the ice sheet flow, a visco-elastic bedrock model and a model of the mass balance at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, calculations are made on a 10 km by 10 km resolution grid with 31 sigma levels. LOVECLIM1.2 reproduces well the major characteristics of the observed climate both for present-day conditions and for key past periods such as the last millennium, the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite some improvements compared to earlier versions, some biases are still present in the model. The most serious ones are mainly located at low latitudes with an overestimation of the temperature there, a too symmetric distribution of precipitation between the two hemispheres, and an overestimation of precipitation and vegetation cover in the subtropics. In addition, the atmospheric circulation is too weak. The model also tends to underestimate the surface temperature changes (mainly at low latitudes) and to overestimate the ocean heat uptake observed over the last decades.

Simulating Interactive Ice Sheets in the Multi-Resolution AWI-ESM: A case study using the SCOPE Coupler

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Gierz ◽  
Lars Ackermann ◽  
Christian Rodehacke ◽  
Uta Krebs-Kanzow ◽  
Christian Stepanek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Paleoclimate Studies

&lt;p&gt;Interactions between the climate and the cryosphere have the&amp;#160;potential to induce strong non-linear transitions in the Earth's&amp;#160;climate. These interactions influence both the atmospheric circulation, by changing the ice sheet's geometry, as well as the oceanic circulation, by modification of the water mass properties. Furthermore, the waxing and waning of large continental ice sheets influences the global albedo, altering the energy balance of the Earth System and inducing climate-ice sheet feedbacks on a global scale as evident in Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. To date, few fully&lt;br&gt;comprehensive models exist, that do not only contain a coupled atmosphere/land/ocean component, but also consider interactive cryosphere physics. Yet, on glacial-interglacial and tectonic time scales, as well as in the Anthropocene, ice sheets are not in equilibrium with the climate, and prescribed fixed ice sheet representations in the model can principally be only an approximation to reality. Only climate models, that contain interactive ice sheets, can produce simulations of the Earth's climate which include all feedbacks and processes related to atmosphere-land-ocean-ice interactions. Previous fully coupled models were limited either by low spatial resolution or an incomplete representation of ice sheet processes, such as iceberg calving, surface ablation processes, and ocean/ice-shelf interactions. Here, we present the newly developed AWI-Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), which tackles some of these problems. Our modelling toolbox is based on the AWI-climate model, including&amp;#160;atmosphere and vegetation components suitable for paleoclimate studies, a multi-resolution global ocean component which can be refined to simulate regions of interest at high resolution, and an ice sheet component suitable for simulating both ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics and thermodynamics. We describe the currently implemented coupling between these components, present first results for the Mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, and introduce further ideas for scientific applications for both future and past climate states with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, we provide an outlook on the potential of such fully coupled Earth System models in improving representation of climate-ice sheet feedbacks in future paleoclimate studies with this model.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Asynchronously coupling the cryosphere and atmosphere in an energy-balance climate model

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 159-164
Author(s):  
Robert S. Steen ◽  
Tamara Shapiro Ledley
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Final State ◽  
Coupling Parameters ◽  
Continental Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Model

A major component of the climate system on the 10 000-100 000 year time-scales is continental ice sheets, yet many of the mechanisms involved in the land-sea-ice processes that affect the ice sheets are poorly understood. In order to examine these processes in more detail, we have developed a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea-ice—continental-ice-sheet model (CCSLI model). This model includes a hydrologic cycle, a detailed surface energy and mass balance, a thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a zonally averaged dynamic ice-flow model with bedrock depression.Because of the variety of space and time-scales inherent in such a model, we have asynchronously coupled the land—ice model to the other components of the model. In this paper the asynchronous coupling is described and sensitivity studies are presented that determine the values of the asynchronous coupling parameters. Model simulations using these values allow the model to run nearly ten times faster with minimal changes in the final state of the ice sheet.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of ocean circulation and sea-ice conditions to loss of West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet

2007 ◽  
Vol 53 (182) ◽  
pp. 490-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Bougamont ◽  
Elizabeth Hunke ◽  
Slawek Tulaczyk
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Poleward Heat Transport ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Ice Conditions

AbstractWe use a global coupled ocean-sea ice model to test the hypothesis that the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), or just its ice shelves, may modify ocean circulation and sea-ice conditions in the Southern Ocean. We compare the results of three model runs: (1) a control run with a standard (modern) configuration of landmask in West Antarctica, (2) a no-shelves run with West Antarctic ice shelves removed and (3) a no-WAIS run. In the latter two runs, up to a few million square kilometres of new sea surface area opens to sea-ice formation, causing the volume and extent of Antarctic sea-ice cover to increase compared with the control run. In general, near-surface waters are cooler around Antarctica in the no-shelves and no-WAIS model runs than in the control run, while warm intermediate and deep waters penetrate further south, increasing poleward heat transport. Varying regional responses to the imposed changes in landmask configuration are determined by the fact that Antarctic polynyas and fast ice develop in different parts of the model domain in each run. Model results suggest that changes in the extent of WAIS may modify oceanographic conditions in the Southern Ocean.

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Freshwater Input From Ice Shelves: Impacts on Antarctic Sea Ice and the Southern Ocean in an Earth System Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (20) ◽  
pp. 10,454-10,461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Pauling ◽  
Inga J. Smith ◽  
Patricia J. Langhorne ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Freshwater Input ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice

scholarly journals Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 309-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Goosse ◽  
V. Brovkin ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
R. Haarsma ◽  
P. Huybrechts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Low Latitudes

Abstract. The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 of the three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. LOVECLIM 1.2 includes representations of the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the land surface (including vegetation), the ice sheets, the icebergs and the carbon cycle. The atmospheric component is ECBilt2, a T21, 3-level quasi-geostrophic model. The oceanic component is CLIO3, which is made up of an ocean general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice model. Its horizontal resolution is 3° by 3°, and there are 20 levels in the ocean. ECBilt-CLIO is coupled to VECODE, a vegetation model that simulates the dynamics of two main terrestrial plant functional types, trees and grasses, as well as desert. VECODE also simulates the evolution of the carbon cycle over land while the oceanic carbon cycle is represented in LOCH, a comprehensive model that takes into account both the solubility and biological pumps. The ice sheet component AGISM is made up of a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of the ice sheet flow, a visco-elastic bedrock model and a model of the mass balance at the ice-atmosphere and ice ocean interfaces. For both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, calculations are made on a 10 km by 10 km resolution grid with 31 sigma levels. LOVECLIM 1.2 reproduces well the major characteristics of the observed climate both for present-day conditions and for key past periods such as the last millennium, the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite some improvements compared to earlier versions, some biases are still present in the model. The most serious ones are mainly located at low latitudes with an overestimation of the temperature there, a too symmetric distribution of precipitation between the two hemispheres, an overestimation of precipitation and vegetation cover in the subtropics. In addition, the atmospheric circulation is too weak. The model also tends to underestimate the surface temperature changes (mainly at low latitudes) and to overestimate the ocean heat uptake observed over the last decades.

Surface Melting over Ice Shelves and Ice Sheets as Assessed from Modeled Surface Air Temperatures

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 1929-1936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy G. Fyke ◽  
Lionel Carter ◽  
Andrew Mackintosh ◽  
Andrew J. Weaver ◽  
Katrin J. Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Surface Melting ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
West Antarctic

Abstract Summer surface melting plays an important role in the evolution of ice shelves and their progenitor ice sheets. To explore the magnitude of surface melt occurring over modern ice shelves and ice sheets in a climate scenario forced by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a coupled climate model was used to simulate the distribution of summer melt at high latitudes and project the future evolution of high-melt regions in both hemispheres. Forcing of the climate model with CO2 emissions resulting from combustion of the present-day fossil-fuel resource base resulted in expansion of high-melt regions, as defined by the contour marking 200 positive degree-days per year, in the Northern Hemisphere and the Antarctic Peninsula and the introduction of high summer melt over the Ross, Ronne-Filchner, and Amery ice shelves as well as a large portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and most of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) by the year 2500. Capping CO2 concentrations at present-day levels avoided significant summer melt over the large Antarctic shelves, the WAIS, and much of the GIS.

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