scholarly journals A Scenario Analysis of the 2030 German Spa Tourist and Tourism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Natalie Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Industry Needs

<p>Tourism is affected by growing transformations of social change, globalisation and wealth creation. Uncertainty surrounding the development of the factors makes it difficult to predict and provide contingency for the future. This is especially so for the spa tourism industry given its enormous figures in revenue growth over the past two decades. Given the growth of the spa industry and the key uncertainties that will shape its future, it is important to understand how the landscape of the spa industry might change in the next few decades. Although there has been research done on the future of spa tourism, for example by the Global Spa and Wellness Summit, their work requires more development and is not country-specific. In response, this study is of value as it explores the future of spa tourism in terms of creating multiple potential pathways. It does this from the perspective of the German spa industry, and addresses the interrelationships of these uncertainties. By following the specific methodology of scenario planning, this study develops a scenario analysis of the future of the German spa industry and answers the questions “What will the German spa tourist and spa tourism industry look like in 2030?” The study consisted of 22 semi-structured interviews with a diverse expert panel in Germany. Interview participants identified twelve key drivers which were discussed in light of existing literature. The two most significant key drivers identified in the interviews were then positioned along a two- key matrix with the demanding consumer on the horizontal axis and new distribution of wealth on the vertical axis. Based on these drivers the study presents four plausible yet challenging and completely different scenarios for the development of the German spa tourist and tourism in 2030. The scenarios include prosperous society, highlighting a positive future for German spas due to the growth of the middle class and thus increasing demands and a multifaceted spa clientele; the power elite, concentrating on the super rich spa consumer and their extravagant consumer behaviour; middle class on the brink, presenting a squeezed middle class and a gradient decline of the spa industry; and the welfare state, a gloomy scenario with almost no spa tourism left. Through examination of significant questions and strategic implications, the study concludes that the spa industry needs to challenge its current linear ways of thinking by adopting new insights and perspectives of the future. Furthermore, the industry needs to establish standardised criteria for accreditation and operation of spa facilities. This needs to include a focus on staff training in order to continue to attract the German spa tourist and thus remain profitable in the future.</p>

scholarly journals A Scenario Analysis of the 2030 German Spa Tourist and Tourism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Natalie Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Industry Needs

<p>Tourism is affected by growing transformations of social change, globalisation and wealth creation. Uncertainty surrounding the development of the factors makes it difficult to predict and provide contingency for the future. This is especially so for the spa tourism industry given its enormous figures in revenue growth over the past two decades. Given the growth of the spa industry and the key uncertainties that will shape its future, it is important to understand how the landscape of the spa industry might change in the next few decades. Although there has been research done on the future of spa tourism, for example by the Global Spa and Wellness Summit, their work requires more development and is not country-specific. In response, this study is of value as it explores the future of spa tourism in terms of creating multiple potential pathways. It does this from the perspective of the German spa industry, and addresses the interrelationships of these uncertainties. By following the specific methodology of scenario planning, this study develops a scenario analysis of the future of the German spa industry and answers the questions “What will the German spa tourist and spa tourism industry look like in 2030?” The study consisted of 22 semi-structured interviews with a diverse expert panel in Germany. Interview participants identified twelve key drivers which were discussed in light of existing literature. The two most significant key drivers identified in the interviews were then positioned along a two- key matrix with the demanding consumer on the horizontal axis and new distribution of wealth on the vertical axis. Based on these drivers the study presents four plausible yet challenging and completely different scenarios for the development of the German spa tourist and tourism in 2030. The scenarios include prosperous society, highlighting a positive future for German spas due to the growth of the middle class and thus increasing demands and a multifaceted spa clientele; the power elite, concentrating on the super rich spa consumer and their extravagant consumer behaviour; middle class on the brink, presenting a squeezed middle class and a gradient decline of the spa industry; and the welfare state, a gloomy scenario with almost no spa tourism left. Through examination of significant questions and strategic implications, the study concludes that the spa industry needs to challenge its current linear ways of thinking by adopting new insights and perspectives of the future. Furthermore, the industry needs to establish standardised criteria for accreditation and operation of spa facilities. This needs to include a focus on staff training in order to continue to attract the German spa tourist and thus remain profitable in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Tourists of the Future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Lade ◽  
Paul Strickland ◽  
Elspeth Frew ◽  
Paul Willard ◽  
Sandra Cherro Osorio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Tourist Behaviour

Today, more and more people are travelling than ever before, with 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals recorded in 2019 and the forecasted 1.8 billion international arrivals set to be reached well before its predicted 2030 (UNWTO, 2019; 2020). Traditionally, the wealthier industrialised world has predominately been responsible for both the supply and demand of tourism. However, in recent years a gradual shift has occurred with new destinations beginning to challenge these traditional destinations. There is the expectation that 57% of all international tourist arrivals will be in emerging destinations by 2030 (UNWTO, 2017). The rise of the middle class has resulted in more of the world’s population gaining access to leisure time and the means to increased international travel. Travel experiences in the past have typically consisted of sun, sand and surf type holidays. Tourists are no longer content with these passive activities, rather seeking more experiential and engaging travel experiences instead. This suggests a change in demand from the mass tourism holidays of the 1970s and 1980s to more individualised tourist experiences (Sharpley, 2005). Drivers of change contributing to these changes in travel demand include increased globalisation along with a variety of economic, social, political, technological and environmental trends (Dwyer et al., 2008). Chapter 2 discusses the key drivers of change, along with several trends considered to have an impact on the future development of the international tourism industry. This chapter explores some of these trends further in the context of future tourist behaviour, namely smart tourism, virtual tourism, smart boredom, super sabbaticals and solo travellers.

Impact of lifestyle scenarios on household wastes in Port Harcourt

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 864-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnbosco Emeka Umunnakwe ◽  
Ikem Ekweozor ◽  
Bernadine Akuoma Umunnakwe
Keyword(s):  
Waste Management ◽  
Food Waste ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Household Waste ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Harcourt ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Destination Point

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to highlight the relationship between lifestyles, household and household wastes, by exploring possible future development path for the lifestyle and the possible consequences for household waste composition. The study predicates on a reasonably simple and straightforward idea that the waste generated from homes is a product of the way the people live and since the way of life of people change overtime, getting an idea of how people may live in future may give an insight into the sorts of composition of waste produced by them. It tends to provide a contribution to the evidence base on household waste at a general level. Design/methodology/approach The overall approach hinged on the notion that the household is the appropriate analytical unit of household waste production composition. This specified inputs needed to develop scenarios for future waste composition. The weekly generation of sorted wastes from their various sources was determined by direct measurement in kilograms on a weighing scale. Questionnaires were administered to elicit information on key drivers and factors that influence lifestyles scenarios and their development. Interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders and government agencies on waste management. Findings The results indicated that food related waste constituted the major percentages and tonnages (44 percent, 269,870 tons) of household waste, while the least portion was glass (1.2 percent,7,278 tons). The key drivers responsible for generation of food waste include level of income, subsistence farming that generate organic food waste and rise in fast food outfits that give preference to readymade food over cooking at homes. The drivers for developing future scenarios include population, government regulations, nature of apartment, level of income, consumer spending, management technology. Three scenarios were developed: status quo trends, strong government and destination point. Research limitations/implications Models should be developed for better simulation studies of lifestyle scenarios by quantifying household wastes in terms of carbon footprint and money instead of relying on quantities generated in tons. Further studies should extend to other sources of waste such as industrial waste, electrical and electronic waste, among others. The implication from research findings shows the need for sustained for sustained awareness on people’s lifestyle with regard to handling of household wastes by government agencies, institutions and non-governmental organizations. Scenario planning is required to enable, encourage and engage householders to make changes in their lifestyles. Practical implications Food waste, by virtue of its tonnage and percentage composition, dominated the overall picture during the study period and will continue to do so in the near future. The composition of household waste in the future will be driven by the population and lifestyles of the householders. The drivers of lifestyles are crucial factors that determine the picture of the future. Furthermore, it is possible to conjecture circumstances in which household waste is converted to wealth at the destination point but the period before then imply some radical changes in both lifestyles and underlying economic growth facilitated by a strong political will. Originality/value This research could be of enormous benefit to policy makers, practitioners and others with an interest in or responsibility to the development and implementation of sustainable waste management. Scenarios are devices for enabling organizations and the individuals within them better to understand their operating environment, so as to make better decisions. This research is a scenario-planning exercise, considering how future changes in lifestyles of people in Port Harcourt metropolis now and in future may impact on the future composition of wastes they generate.

scholarly journals Scenario Planning of the Future of Sports Tourism Industry in Mashhad

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Author(s):  
Masoud Darabi ◽  
Mohammad Keshtidar ◽  
Omar Alizaiy_Yousef_Abadi ◽  
Reza Heydari ◽  
Ahmad Nazari-Torshizi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Sports Tourism ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Stakeholder perspectives of the future of accessible tourism in New Zealand

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 223-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brielle Gillovic ◽  
Alison McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Cultural Shift ◽  
Data Accessibility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stakeholder Perspectives ◽  
The Future

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to put forward the argument that New Zealand’s tourism industry generally fails to acknowledge the importance of the access market. Despite anecdotal evidence of the market’s value and strong legislation, New Zealand’s access market arguably remains underserviced and misunderstood. The current research sought to explore social and business rationales to support a future for accessible tourism in New Zealand, from the perspectives of its key stakeholders. It sought to uncover contemporary issues in the tourism industry, to examine the capacity and context for which issues can be addressed and overcome, to achieve a future for accessible tourism in New Zealand. Design/methodology/approach Under the interpretive paradigm, original, exploratory research was conducted. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with ten key New Zealand tourism industry stakeholders who agreed to participate in the research. Qualitative data were thematically analysed. The following five key themes inductively emerged from the data: “Accessibility as a human right: Developing a culture of accessibility”; “Accessible tourism: Good for business?”; “Bottom-up, market-led approach”; “Leadership from the top: Moving from apathy to action”; and “Meeting somewhere in the middle”. The five themes correspond to themes evidenced in the wider literature and present propositions for the future development of accessible tourism in New Zealand. Findings Findings revealed stakeholder opinions of an industry exemplifying minimal awareness and consideration for accessibility. Accessibility was perceived to be an issue of social change, requiring the achievement of a cultural shift where accessibility is envisioned as a cultural norm necessary for the future. Whilst top-down leadership and support were deemed pertinent, ownership and accountability were seen to be crucial at the lower, operational levels of the industry. A “meeting in the middle” was reported necessary to see the leveraging of a greater push towards accessibility and emphasising more prominently, what has been and can be done, moving forward into the future. Originality/value This paper provides original insights into the current and future scope of accessible tourism in New Zealand from the perspectives of its stakeholders. The key themes derived from the research assist knowledge for aligning the industry on a pathway towards achieving the necessary awareness and collaboration required in order to offer accessible tourism experiences to all.

scholarly journals The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura Petersen
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flexible Workforce ◽  
Asian Market

<p>Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic.  The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image.  The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.</p>

scholarly journals 2050: New Zealand's sustainable future

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Yeoman ◽  
Amalina Andrade ◽  
Elisante Leguma ◽  
Natalie Wolf ◽  
Peter Ezra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Issues

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to portray the future of tourism in New Zealand based upon a philosophy of sustainability and cultural identity as a response to the present 2025 Tourism Strategy. Design/methodology/approach The research deployed a scenario planning methodology resulting in four portraits of the future. Findings Environmental issues and global migration are the key issues that will shape the future of New Zealand tourism. In order to address these issues four scenarios were constructed. New Zealand Wonderland portrays a future based upon a grounded international reputation for environmentalism driven by good governance, climate change targets and ecotourism. Indiana Jones and the Search for Cultural Identity position a future driven by rapid growth and unregulated air travel resulting in environmental degradation. A Peaceful Mixture is a balance of socio‐cultural and environmental dimensions of sustainability at the centre of a tourism product shaped upon Maori culture and economic prosperity. The final scenario, New Zealand in Depression, is the worst possible outcome for New Zealand's tourism industry as the three dimensions of economy, community, and environment are not at equilibrium. New Zealand would be over‐polluted with an uncontrolled number of migrants. Research limitations/implications The research was a social construction of ten experts’ views on the future of sustainable tourism. Originality/value New Zealand's present approach to the future of tourism is shaped by the 2025 Tourism Framework (http://tourism2025.org.nz/). This is derived from a business perspective and a neoliberal political philosophy and it is void of the words ecotourism and sustainability. This paper argues that the present strategy will fail because of community disengagement that proposes a range of alternative directions based upon a political discourse of sustainability and shaped by environmental credentials and cultural identity.

scholarly journals The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Laura Petersen
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flexible Workforce ◽  
Asian Market

<p>Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic.  The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image.  The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.</p>

Can Bitcoin be the Future of Digital Payments?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 489-500
Author(s):  
Andrea Valente ◽  
◽  
David Atkinson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Future ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Digital Payments ◽  
Robust Regulation ◽  
Stakeholder Acceptance

This study aimed to investigate the conditions in which Bitcoin has developed as a leading cryptocurrency and, according to Nakamoto (2008), could become an instrument for everyday payments around the world. In comparison to other digital payment solutions, Bitcoin is based on a peer-to-peer electronic cash system using “the blockchain”. This innovative technology allows for decentralised storage and movement of currency in a fully anonymous way, introducing advantageous methods for encrypted security and faster transactions (Hagiu & Beach, 2014). Scepticism regards Bitcoin’s foundation, energy consumption and price volatility, however, did not take long to arise (Holthaus, 2017). Ten years from its white paper release, Bitcoin is further supported by the same drivers which could sustain its growth as the future of digital payments (Russo, 2018). In order to investigate the key drivers and feasibility of acceptance, a London based survey was used to understand the desirability of Bitcoin as a day-to-day tool for digital payments. Additionally, this research analysed Bitcoin’s stakeholders and forecast drivers of sustainability for its application to become the future of the payment industry. A space which relies on policies that involve multiple layers of society, governments, regulators and tech-firms, all on a global scale. The findings confirmed how the increasing lack of trust of political and financial institutions, coupled with the increasing cases of data-breaches by tech-firms, encouraged over 70% of respondents to consider more decentralised and anonymous methods for their day-to-day actions; like payments. Policy makers need to cope with societies increasingly separating politically but gathering together digitally (LBS, 2017). For Bitcoin to truly establish itself as a global digital payment solution, key stakeholder acceptance must converge alongside the introduction of more robust regulation.

Procurement Analytics: Enabling Data Architectures in the Age of Big Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Goul ◽  
T. S. Raghu ◽  
Ziru Li
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Data Space ◽  
Prescriptive Analytics ◽  
Data Architecture ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Level ◽  
Area Data

As procurement organizations increasingly move from a cost-and-efficiency emphasis to a profit-and-growth emphasis, flexible data architecture will become an integral part of a procurement analytics strategy. It is therefore imperative for procurement leaders to understand and address digitization trends in supply chains and to develop strategies to create robust data architecture and analytics strategies for the future. This chapter assesses and examines the ways companies can organize their procurement data architectures in the big data space to mitigate current limitations and to lay foundations for the discovery of new insights. It sets out to understand and define the levels of maturity in procurement organizations as they pertain to the capture, curation, exploitation, and management of procurement data. The chapter then develops a framework for articulating the value proposition of moving between maturity levels and examines what the future entails for companies with mature data architectures. In addition to surveying the practitioner and academic research literature on procurement data analytics, the chapter presents detailed and structured interviews with over fifteen procurement experts from companies around the globe. The chapter finds several important and useful strategies that have helped procurement organizations design strategic roadmaps for the development of robust data architectures. It then further identifies four archetype procurement area data architecture contexts. In addition, this chapter details exemplary high-level mature data architecture for each archetype and examines the critical assumptions underlying each one. Data architectures built for the future need a design approach that supports both descriptive and real-time, prescriptive analytics.

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