Scenario Planning of the Future of Sports Tourism Industry in Mashhad

Tourism is affected by growing transformations of social change, globalisation and wealth creation. Uncertainty surrounding the development of the factors makes it difficult to predict and provide contingency for the future. This is especially so for the spa tourism industry given its enormous figures in revenue growth over the past two decades. Given the growth of the spa industry and the key uncertainties that will shape its future, it is important to understand how the landscape of the spa industry might change in the next few decades. Although there has been research done on the future of spa tourism, for example by the Global Spa and Wellness Summit, their work requires more development and is not country-specific. In response, this study is of value as it explores the future of spa tourism in terms of creating multiple potential pathways. It does this from the perspective of the German spa industry, and addresses the interrelationships of these uncertainties. By following the specific methodology of scenario planning, this study develops a scenario analysis of the future of the German spa industry and answers the questions “What will the German spa tourist and spa tourism industry look like in 2030?” The study consisted of 22 semi-structured interviews with a diverse expert panel in Germany. Interview participants identified twelve key drivers which were discussed in light of existing literature. The two most significant key drivers identified in the interviews were then positioned along a two- key matrix with the demanding consumer on the horizontal axis and new distribution of wealth on the vertical axis. Based on these drivers the study presents four plausible yet challenging and completely different scenarios for the development of the German spa tourist and tourism in 2030. The scenarios include prosperous society, highlighting a positive future for German spas due to the growth of the middle class and thus increasing demands and a multifaceted spa clientele; the power elite, concentrating on the super rich spa consumer and their extravagant consumer behaviour; middle class on the brink, presenting a squeezed middle class and a gradient decline of the spa industry; and the welfare state, a gloomy scenario with almost no spa tourism left. Through examination of significant questions and strategic implications, the study concludes that the spa industry needs to challenge its current linear ways of thinking by adopting new insights and perspectives of the future. Furthermore, the industry needs to establish standardised criteria for accreditation and operation of spa facilities. This needs to include a focus on staff training in order to continue to attract the German spa tourist and thus remain profitable in the future.

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A Scenario Analysis of the 2030 German Spa Tourist and Tourism

10.26686/wgtn.17004868.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Natalie Wolf

Keyword(s):

Middle Class ◽

Scenario Analysis ◽

Vertical Axis ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Wealth Creation ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

The Future ◽

Key Drivers ◽

Industry Needs

Tourism is affected by growing transformations of social change, globalisation and wealth creation. Uncertainty surrounding the development of the factors makes it difficult to predict and provide contingency for the future. This is especially so for the spa tourism industry given its enormous figures in revenue growth over the past two decades. Given the growth of the spa industry and the key uncertainties that will shape its future, it is important to understand how the landscape of the spa industry might change in the next few decades. Although there has been research done on the future of spa tourism, for example by the Global Spa and Wellness Summit, their work requires more development and is not country-specific. In response, this study is of value as it explores the future of spa tourism in terms of creating multiple potential pathways. It does this from the perspective of the German spa industry, and addresses the interrelationships of these uncertainties. By following the specific methodology of scenario planning, this study develops a scenario analysis of the future of the German spa industry and answers the questions “What will the German spa tourist and spa tourism industry look like in 2030?” The study consisted of 22 semi-structured interviews with a diverse expert panel in Germany. Interview participants identified twelve key drivers which were discussed in light of existing literature. The two most significant key drivers identified in the interviews were then positioned along a two- key matrix with the demanding consumer on the horizontal axis and new distribution of wealth on the vertical axis. Based on these drivers the study presents four plausible yet challenging and completely different scenarios for the development of the German spa tourist and tourism in 2030. The scenarios include prosperous society, highlighting a positive future for German spas due to the growth of the middle class and thus increasing demands and a multifaceted spa clientele; the power elite, concentrating on the super rich spa consumer and their extravagant consumer behaviour; middle class on the brink, presenting a squeezed middle class and a gradient decline of the spa industry; and the welfare state, a gloomy scenario with almost no spa tourism left. Through examination of significant questions and strategic implications, the study concludes that the spa industry needs to challenge its current linear ways of thinking by adopting new insights and perspectives of the future. Furthermore, the industry needs to establish standardised criteria for accreditation and operation of spa facilities. This needs to include a focus on staff training in order to continue to attract the German spa tourist and thus remain profitable in the future.

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The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

10.26686/wgtn.17065118.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Laura Petersen

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Immigration Policies ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Tourism Product ◽

The Future ◽

Flexible Workforce ◽

Asian Market

Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic. The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image. The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.

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2050: New Zealand's sustainable future

Journal of Tourism Futures ◽

10.1108/jtf-12-2014-0003 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 117-130 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Ian Yeoman ◽

Amalina Andrade ◽

Elisante Leguma ◽

Natalie Wolf ◽

Peter Ezra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Cultural Identity ◽

Good Governance ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Content Type ◽

Tourism Product ◽

The Future ◽

Key Issues

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to portray the future of tourism in New Zealand based upon a philosophy of sustainability and cultural identity as a response to the present 2025 Tourism Strategy. Design/methodology/approach The research deployed a scenario planning methodology resulting in four portraits of the future. Findings Environmental issues and global migration are the key issues that will shape the future of New Zealand tourism. In order to address these issues four scenarios were constructed. New Zealand Wonderland portrays a future based upon a grounded international reputation for environmentalism driven by good governance, climate change targets and ecotourism. Indiana Jones and the Search for Cultural Identity position a future driven by rapid growth and unregulated air travel resulting in environmental degradation. A Peaceful Mixture is a balance of socio‐cultural and environmental dimensions of sustainability at the centre of a tourism product shaped upon Maori culture and economic prosperity. The final scenario, New Zealand in Depression, is the worst possible outcome for New Zealand's tourism industry as the three dimensions of economy, community, and environment are not at equilibrium. New Zealand would be over‐polluted with an uncontrolled number of migrants. Research limitations/implications The research was a social construction of ten experts’ views on the future of sustainable tourism. Originality/value New Zealand's present approach to the future of tourism is shaped by the 2025 Tourism Framework (http://tourism2025.org.nz/). This is derived from a business perspective and a neoliberal political philosophy and it is void of the words ecotourism and sustainability. This paper argues that the present strategy will fail because of community disengagement that proposes a range of alternative directions based upon a political discourse of sustainability and shaped by environmental credentials and cultural identity.

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The future of the New Zealand tourism workforce: 2035

10.26686/wgtn.17065118 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Laura Petersen

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Immigration Policies ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Tourism Product ◽

The Future ◽

Flexible Workforce ◽

Asian Market

Imagining the future is a tantalising thought, considering that we will never truly know what lies ahead. Despite this inability, envisioning the future has not remained trapped in the realm of mere science fiction fantasies, but is increasingly attempted by organisations, academics and governments. This thesis uses scenario planning to ask what will the future of the New Zealand tourism workforce look like in the year 2035. Scenario planning, as a method of futures studies, is an increasingly popular approach to envisioning the future and draws upon key drivers of change in the present to formulate plausible future scenarios. This provides decision makers with a space for discussion and stretches their thinking through rich storylines. This thesis adds valuable insight to both areas of workforce planning, and New Zealand’s valuable tourism industry and its workforce. It takes an alternatively qualitative scenario approach to holistically explore this topic. The year 2035 was chosen to push the current industry discussions around the Tourism 2025 strategy even further into the future. A modified Delphi method guided the research, based on a similar scenario planning study by Solnet, Baum, Kralj, Robinson, Ritchie, and Olsen (2013) which focused on the tourism workforce of the Asia-Pacific region. This method adds truthfulness to the research and involves three rounds of surveys that draw upon the knowledge and consensus of experts within the tourism and workforce fields in New Zealand. From a list of ten drivers, immigration policies and the growing Asian market emerged as the most important and formed the basis for the four alternative future scenarios. “Manaakitanga is Found Here” presents a world of closed immigration and a niche Asian tourist market, where the workforce relies on, and celebrates, local knowledge and culture. “Pick of the Labour Crop” encourages a flexible workforce for private profit within open immigration settings with a niche Asian market. “Struggling for Respect” warns of a future where tourism lacks national strategic importance with a struggling workforce, amongst closed immigration policies and a mass Asian market. Finally, “Cheap and Plentiful” explores how open immigration and a mass Asian market could push a flexible workforce and a cheaper tourism product, which damages the country’s industry and image. The study reveals that some scenarios are more desirable than others, but regardless of which scenario unfolds, they each present various challenges and opportunities for the workforce.They emphasis the unpredictable nature of the future and stress the importance of flexibility in order to respond and adapt to changes. They also highlight the necessity of seeking a balanced solution for the workforce and striving for a quality tourism product that respectfully integrates our Māori culture.

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Accessible tourism futures: the world we dream to live in and the opportunities we hope to have

Journal of Tourism Futures ◽

10.1108/jtf-08-2015-0043 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 179-188 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

Eleni Michopoulou ◽

Simon Darcy ◽

Ivor Ambrose ◽

Dimitros Buhalis

Keyword(s):

Academic Research ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Stakeholder Collaboration ◽

Persons With Disabilities ◽

Content Type ◽

Global Policy ◽

Policy Initiatives ◽

Delphi Approach ◽

Key Concepts ◽

The Future

Purpose Accessible tourism is evolving as a field of academic research and industry practice, set within a dynamic social context. The field is interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary. The purpose of this paper is to examine key concepts and global initiatives that will shape accessible tourism futures. Design/methodology/approach Three of the authors have extensive academic experience in the area and the fourth author is the Managing Director of the pre-eminent European Network for Accessible Tourism. In taking a limited Delphi approach to canvassing key areas likely to shape accessible tourism futures, the following concepts and policy initiatives were examined: motivations, dreams and aspirations of people with disability; demography; UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; destination competitiveness; universal design (UD); and the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Findings A discussion of each of the above areas was placed in context to accessible tourism futures and to contextualise the papers that were selected for the special issue. The latter part of the paper outlines the contribution of each empirical paper to the issue discussing the approach, findings and implications. Stakeholder collaboration was identified as the key common theme of the papers and the factor for developing accessible tourism solutions, recognising the value of the market and capitalising on it. A collaborative approach is required to recognise the complementary nature of the different paradigms; to re-shape and transform the future of the accessible tourism industry. To assist in the development of accessible tourism futures, UD principles should provide a foundation to enhance the future competitiveness of tourism destinations and organisations. Originality/value The paper’s examination of the concepts and global policy considerations provides a strong academic and practitioner foundation for considering accessible tourism futures. In doing so, accessible tourism futures are shown to be affected by key concepts related to core tourism considerations and major policy initiatives on accessibility and sustainability. Yet, accessible tourism futures also have the potential to create their own momentum and contribute unique learnings on the diversity of tourism markets that will shape tourism concepts and global policy initiatives in their own right.

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ROLE OF THE TOURIST SECTOR IN THE STRATEGY OF DIVERSIFICATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF STAVROPOL KRAI

EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA ◽

10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2020.10.04.003 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (10) ◽

pp. 16-20

Author(s):

A. N. KRIVENKO ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Strategic Direction ◽

Socio Economic Development ◽

The Future ◽

Stavropol Krai

Tourism is considered a strategic direction for the economic development of the region. The role it plays in creating the image and reputation of the region also affects the fate of other sectors of the economy. The tourism industry is constantly growing and represents the main source of income now and in the future for many countries and territories with a tourism vocation.

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Dance in tourism from an anthropological perspective: An introduction to the research issue

Turyzm ◽

10.2478/tour-2019-0002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (1) ◽

pp. 15-21

Author(s):

Adrianna Banio ◽

Ewa Malchrowicz-Mośko

Keyword(s):

Literature Review ◽

Local Community ◽

Cultural Tourism ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Research Issue ◽

Anthropological Perspective ◽

Sports Tourism ◽

Great Danger

Nowadays, dance plays an important role in the modern tourism industry. Today, the craze for dancing creates great opportunities for cultural tourism. However, it should be remembered that there is a great danger of losing the most important meaning of dance by commercializing and reducing its essence. Dance tourism as discussed in the article is understood as travel for the purpose of learning about dance and its culture in places where given dance styles were born, or where they play an important national role as well as enjoying great popularity among the local community. This article is an introduction to the issue of dance tourism in an anthropological context. It presents potential attractions related to dance in the perspectives of cultural and sports tourism, it has an illustrative and descriptive character while its method is a literature review and presentation of popular examples.

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TOURISM AND VACCINE HESITANCY

10.31235/osf.io/6e3gx ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Oscar Yuheng Zhu ◽

Bettina Grün ◽

Sara Dolnicar

Keyword(s):

Tourism Industry ◽

International Travel ◽

Vaccine Hesitancy ◽

Travel History ◽

Safety And Efficacy ◽

The Future

Vaccine hesitancy is one of the main obstacles facing the tourism industry in its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many people are sceptical about the COVID-19 vaccine and decide not to get vaccinated. Our research aims to test the effectiveness of using travel-related incentives to overcome vaccine hesitancy. We investigate (1) whether travel-related beliefs and behaviours are associated with vaccination willingness, and (2) whether alerting people to travel-related freedoms linked to vaccination can increase vaccination willingness. Our results indicate that (1) there is a significant association between people’s international travel history, their desire to travel internationally in the future and vaccination willingness, and (2) this association cannot, however, be leveraged to further increase vaccination willingness as vaccine-related beliefs (safety and efficacy) are the primary drivers of vaccination willingness.

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A REPRESENTATIVE REVIEW OF FUZZY LOGIC APPLICATIONS IN TOURISM RESEARCH

Towards Excellence ◽

10.37867/te120529 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 324-336

Author(s):

J. Eugene

Keyword(s):

Fuzzy Logic ◽

Real Life ◽

Dynamic Modelling ◽

Computing Methods ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Holistic View ◽

Tourism Research ◽

Course Of Action ◽

The Future ◽

Research Studies

Tourism offers many tangible benefits to society with the industry playing an important contributory role in the growth and development of the domestic economy. The quantum of research studies on tourism has increased substantially over the last twenty years in tandem with the upward trajectory of the global tourist industry. The many different dimensions and aspects of tourism have been explored by a wide and varied spectrum of research studies. As the entire world came to a standstill with the Covid-19 pandemic induced global lockdown, tourism research witnessed a steady growth in research publications although the industry itself as well as the intertwined hotel and hospitality sector were crippled by a miniscule virus and left battling for their very survival. This increased quantum of literary publication was particularly evident in Scopus and Web of Science which put forth several notable publications on the changing dynamics of the tourism industry. The present study is envisaged to offer a holistic view of the future growth trends of the tourism industry, which has been forced to rethink the very fabric of its functioning and reinvent itself to adapt to a changed environment that curbs the social interaction that the industry depends on to function. Fuzzy logic, a mathematical modelling that can predict outcomes based on inputted data, has gained a lot of attention in recent years as it is an effective tool that can be deployed to envisage a course of action for future scenarios and devise feasible solutions that can help tackle uncertain and ambiguous situations. The current research paper, comprehensively reviews highly cited noteworthy articles on fuzzy logic and its application in tourism, to offer a good understanding of the applications and advantages of this dynamic modelling tool whose use in a number of different fields may soon make it indispensable to research and development. This qualitative paper is constructed on the basis of content analysis of numerous important articles that were reviewed in-depth. Based on the observations and findings of the study, research directions for the future are proffered. This paper is novel in that it focuses on one particular segment of research, i.e. new computing methods based on fuzzy logic, and can greatly help upcoming researchers to explore the large number of real-life applications of this extremely useful tool and add meaningful knowledge to the existing literature with further research in the field of fuzzy logic models.

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