scholarly journals Analisis Dampak Fenomena El Nino (1997-1998) Terhadap Ketersediaan Air Tanah Pulau Ambon

Agrologia ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rion Suaib Salman
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Other ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The availability of soil in water is needed to run an everyday life, especially for living beings. The availability of groundwater is highly dependent on the good hydrological patterns, whereby if rain occurs with sufficient criteria then groundwater will be available as much as we need, but if the hydrological cycle becomes disrupted as a result of meteorological phenomena such as el nino then it will decrease water content in the soil. El nino phenomenon that occurred in 1997-1998 had a profound influence on the availability of groundwater, especially on the island of Ambon. Based on the analysis of water balance on the island of Ambon in 1997-1998, water deficit (drought) was so significant in the mid to late 1997 and in 1998. This certainly greatly affected the agricultural sector which is very dependent on the availability of water ground. The dynamics of the atmosphere has changed significantly, Both the government and the other correspond institution must anticipate the impact of water shortages on agriculture.

scholarly journals Analisis Fenomena El Nino dan Dampaknya Terhadap Neraca Air Lahan di Pulau Ambon

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-118
Author(s):  
Samuel Laimeheriwa ◽  
Mitha Pangaribuan ◽  
Martha Amba
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Land Water ◽  
El Nino Events

El Nino is one of the global phenomena that has affected the climate system of Indonesia, including Ambon Island of Maluku. One of the direct impacts of the El Nino phenomenon is the decrease of water availability on agricultural land. This study aimed: i) to analyze the period of El-Nino extreme rainfall events in  Ambon Island as well as the intensity and its frequency; and ii) to analyze the impact of El Nino events on the water balance of agricultural lands on Ambon Island. Sixty years of climatic data period 1959-2018 from Pattimura Meteorological Station and Karang Panjang Geophysics Station were used to analyze extreme rainfall conditions of El Nino, and to calculate the water balance of land using the methods of  Thornthwaite and Mather (1957). The results showed that 16 times El Nino events occurred in Ambon between 1959 and 2018, with the frequency of 1-7 times per year or four times per year.  The most extreme El Nino events that occurred in Ambon were in 1977, 1987 and 1997.  The results of land water balance calculation during the El-Nino events showed seven months water deficit (September to March) which is 62,6% higher than the normal conditions;  meanwhile, the optimum soil moisture occurred four months (June to September) or seven months shorter than the normal conditions which were 11 months (March to January). Keywords: Ambon Island, El Nino, land-water balance   ABSTRAK El Nino merupakan salah satu fenomena global yang berdampak terhadap sistem iklim di wilayah Indonesia; termasuk wilayah Pulau Ambon Provinsi Maluku. Salah satu dampak langsung fenomena El Nino terhadap sistem pertanian adalah berkurangnya ketersediaan air pada lahan pertanian. Penelitian bertujuan untuk: a) menganalisis tahun-tahun kejadian curah hujan ekstrim El Nino serta intensitas dan frekuensinya di Pulau Ambon; dan b) menganalisis dampak kejadian El Nino terhadap neraca air lahan pertanian di Pulau Ambon. Penelitian ini menggunakan data iklim selama 60 tahun pengamatan periode 1959-2018 dari Stasiun Meteorologi Pattimura Ambon dan Stasiun Geofisika Karang Panjang Ambon. Analisis data iklim dilakukan dengan tahapan sebagai berikut: a) analisis curah hujan pada kondisi ekstrim El Nino; dan b) perhitungan neraca air lahan menggunakan metode Thornthwaite dan Mather (1957). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama periode 1959-2018 kejadian El Nino berlangsung di Pulau Ambon sebanyak 16 kali dengan frekuensi 1-7 tahun sekali atau rata-rata 4 tahun sekali. Tahun-tahun kejadian El Nino di wilayah Pulau Ambon yang paling ekstrim terjadi pada tahun 1977, 1987 dan 1997. Berdasarkan perhitungan neraca air lahan, ketika El-Nino berlangsung defisit air terjadi selama 7 bulan (September sampai dengan Maret); nilainya bertambah sebesar 626% dari kondisi normal, dan kadar air tanah pada kondisi optimum hanya 4 bulan (Juni sampai dengan September) atau lebih pendek 7 bulan dibandingkan kondisi normalnya, yaitu 11 bulan (Maret sampai dengan Januari). Kata kunci: El Nino, neraca air lahan, Pulau Ambon

scholarly journals The impact of the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events on water resource availability of tropical catchments in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 217-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Leemhuis ◽  
G. Gerold
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central Sulawesi ◽  
Annual Discharge

Abstract. Precipitation anomalies caused by the warm phase (El Niño) of the ENSO cycle lead to a strong decrease of water resources in South-East Asia. The aim of this work is to study the impact of warm phase ENSO caused precipitation anomalies on the water balance of a mesoscale tropical catchment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia using a scenario analysis. We applied statistically generated precipitation anomalies caused by warm phase ENSO events on a validated hydrological model of the Palu River catchment (2694 km2) to investigate the implications of the generated ENSO scenarios on the total annual water balance, the annual discharge regime and the discharge variability. Moreover we analysed the influence of various catchment characteristics during warm phase ENSO conditions on the discharge variability through a comparison of different sub-catchment types. The results of the scenario analysis proved a severe decline of the annual discharge rate during warm phase ENSO conditions and an increase of the overall discharge variability.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal patterns of thermal anomalies and drought over tropical forests driven by recent extreme climatic anomalies

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan C. Jimenez ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Cristian Mattar ◽  
Ken Takahashi ◽  
Andrés Santamaría-Artigas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Other ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

The recent 2015–2016 El Niño (EN) event was considered as strong as the EN in 1997–1998. Given such magnitude, it was expected to result in extreme warming and moisture anomalies in tropical areas. Here we characterize the spatial patterns of temperature anomalies and drought over tropical forests, including tropical South America (Amazonia), Africa and Asia/Indonesia during the 2015–2016 EN event. These spatial patterns of warming and drought are compared with those observed in previous strong EN events (1982–1983 and 1997–1998) and other moderate to strong EN events (e.g. 2004–2005 and 2009–2010). The link between the spatial patterns of drought and sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific is also explored. We show that indeed the EN2015–2016 led to unprecedented warming compared to the other EN events over Amazonia, Africa and Indonesia, as a consequence of the background global warming trend. Anomalous accumulated extreme drought area over Amazonia was found during EN2015–2016, but this value may be closer to extreme drought area extents in the other two EN events in 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. Over Africa, datasets disagree, and it is difficult to conclude which EN event led to the highest accumulated extreme drought area. Our results show that the highest values of accumulated drought area over Africa were obtained in 2015–2016 and 1997–1998, with a long-term drying trend not observed over the other tropical regions. Over Indonesia, all datasets suggest that EN 1982–1983 and EN 1997–1998 (or even the drought of 2005) led to a higher extreme drought area than EN2015–2016. Uncertainties in precipitation datasets hinder consistent estimates of drought severity over tropical regions, and improved reanalysis products and station records are required.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

scholarly journals Determination of priority locations to support climate change adaptation

2021 ◽  
Vol 892 (1) ◽  
pp. 012057
Author(s):  
D Firda ◽  
W Estiningtyas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Climate change has had a significant impact on the agricultural sector and the impact is different in each place due to spatial variations in Indonesia. One of the efforts that must be made to reduce risk is to adapt. The purpose of this paper is to determine the key locations and their relationship to rice production for adaptation to climate change. Rainfall data and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) are used to see the relationship between these two parameters through regression analysis and significance in El Niño and La Niña conditions. In El Niño conditions 24 key locations were obtained and in La Niña 3 priority locations. From the selected key locations, regression analysis was performed to determine the relationship between rainfall and rice production. The regression results at the sample locations show a fairly high R2 value, namely 0.4 to 0.9, namely in Juntinyuat (West Java), Palasari (Bali), and Detusoko (East Nusa Tenggara). Other key locations are also found in several provinces. This key location is a priority location where the rainfall is strongly influenced by the extreme climate phenomenon El Niño and La Niña so that it can be used to assess the impact and monitor its impact on food farming. Socialization of the use of climate information to extension workers and farmers will greatly help reduce risks and increase capacity to adapt to climate change.

The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.

Alcohol, Alcoholism, and Crime

1963 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selden D. Bacon
Keyword(s):  
Human Behavior ◽  
The Other ◽  
General Knowledge ◽  
Social Custom ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This article is concerned with the overlapping of two phe nomena, each of which can occur independently of the other. The first is deviation from the specific social custom of drinking. The second, crime, refers to a class of deviations from many different customs of a society—deviations possessing one unique attribute in common, that of eliciting purposeful, negative sanc tions by the government. General knowledge about deviation from custom and about the impact of alcohol upon human behavior must be combined with an understanding of each of these two categories of deviance in order to assess the overlap.

scholarly journals Climate Change Implications Found in Winter Extreme Sea Level Height Records around Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Dong Eun Lee ◽  
Jaehee Kim ◽  
Yujin Heo ◽  
Hyunjin Kang ◽  
Eun Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Height

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.

THE IMPACT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFOMANCE IN KENYA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-57
Author(s):  
John Githii Kimani ◽  
Dr. George Ruigu Ruigu
Keyword(s):  
Research And Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of research and development investment/expenditure on the agricultural sector performance in Kenya.Methodology: The study took the peoples impact assessment direction. The data for this study was collected from various government agencies such as KARI, ASTI, Kenya Agricultural Sector Data compendium website, FAOSTAT, World Bank among others. Co-integration and error correction modeling methods were used in analyzing the data for this study.Results: Co-integration results for both the parsimonious and non-parsimonious model indicated that that there is a long-run relationship among the variables in the agriculture performance in Kenya. Further, findings in this study indicated that the variables under study were insignificant determinants of the long run Total Factor Productivity of the agricultural sector.  Meanwhile, Trade openness was the only significant determinant of the short run agricultural Total Factor Productivity.Unique Contribution to Policy and Practice: This study recommends the institutionalization of policies aimed at ensuring interaction between the various stakeholders in the agricultural sectors. This interaction will ensure that resources are better allocated to reduce duplication of research and dissemination activities. In addition, greater collaboration among the stakeholders will promote and strengthen the connection between research, policy and the application of research findings. The study further advocates that the government should follow a trade liberazation oriented approach to the agricultural sector as opposed to a trade tightening approach.

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