The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

Motivated by the strong Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2019, a survey on the similar Antarctic weak polar events (WPV) is presented, including their life cycle, dynamics, seasonality, and climatic impacts. The Antarctic WPVs have a frequency of about four events per decade, with the 2002 event being the only major SSW. They show a similar life cycle to the SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere but have a longer duration. They are primarily driven by enhanced upward-propagating wavenumber 1 in the presence of a preconditioned polar stratosphere, i.e., a weaker and more contracted Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. Antarctic WPVs occur mainly in the austral spring. Their early occurrence is preceded by an easterly anomaly in the middle and upper equatorial stratosphere besides the preconditioned polar stratosphere. The Antarctic WPVs increase the ozone concentration in the polar region and are associated with an advanced seasonal transition of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one week. Their frequency doubles after 2000 and is closely related to the advanced Antarctic stratospheric final warming in recent decades. The WPV-resultant negative phase of the southern annular mode descends to the troposphere and persists for about three months, leading to persistent hemispheric scale temperature and precipitation anomalies.

Indian Ocean Subtropical Underwater and the Interannual Variability in its Annual Subduction Rate Associated with the Southern Annular Mode

In this study, the Indian Ocean subtropical underwater (IOSTUW) was investigated as a subsurface salinity maximum using Argo floats (2000–2020) for the first time. It has mean salinity, potential temperature and potential density values of 35.54 ± 0.29 psu, 17.91 ± 1.66 °C, and 25.56 ± 0.35 kg m−3, respectively, and mainly extends between 10°S and 30°S along the isopycnal surface in the subtropical south Indian Ocean. The annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW during the period of 2004-2019 was investigated based on a gridded Argo dataset. The results revealed a mean value of 4.39 Sv (1 Sv=106 m3s−1) with an interannual variability that is closely related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The variation in the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW is dominated by the lateral induction term, which largely depends on the winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the sea surface salinity (SSS) maximum region. The anomalies of winter MLD is primarily determined by SAM-related air-sea heat flux and zonal wind anomalies through modulation of the buoyancy. As a result, the annual subduction rate of the IOSTUW generally increased when the SAM index showed negative anomalies and decreased when the SAM index showed positive anomalies. Exceptional cases occurred when the wind anomaly within the SSS maximum region was weak or was dominated by its meridional component.

An Investigation of Extreme Cold Events at the South Pole

From 5 July to 11 September 2012, the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station experienced an unprecedented 78 days in a row with a maximum temperature at or below -50°C. Aircraft and ground-based activity cannot function without risk below this temperature. Lengthy periods of extreme cold temperatures are characterized by a drop in pressure of around 15 hPa over four days, accompanied by winds from grid east. Periodic influxes of warm air from the Weddell Sea raise the temperature as the wind shifts to grid north. The end of the event occurs when the temperature increase is enough to move past the -50°C threshold. This study also examines the length of extreme cold periods. The number of days below -50°C in early winter has been decreasing since 1999, and this trend is statistically significant at the 5% level. Late winter shows an increase in the number of days below -50°C for the same period, but this trend is not statistically significant. Changes in the Southern Annular Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation/Tripole Index are investigated in relation to the initiation of extreme cold events. None of the correlations are statistically significant. A positive Southern Annular Mode and a La Niña event or a central Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation pattern would position the upper-level circulation to favor a strong, symmetrical polar vortex with strong westerlies over the Southern Ocean, leading to a cold pattern over the South Pole.

An Automated Climatology of Cool Season Cutoff Lows over South-Eastern Australia, and Relationships with the Remote Climate Drivers

Cutoff low pressure systems have been found to be the synoptic system responsible for the majority of rainfall in South-Eastern Australia during the cool season (April to October inclusive). Meanwhile, rainfall in South-Eastern Australia at the seasonal and interannual scale is known to be related to remote climate drivers, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode. In this study, a new automated tracking scheme to identify synoptic scale cutoff lows is developed, then applied to 500 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP1 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, to create two databases of cool season cutoff lows for South Eastern Australia for the years 1979 to 2018 inclusive. Climatological characteristics of cutoff lows identified in both reanalyses are presented and compared, highlighting differences between the NCEP1 and ERA-Interim reanalyses over the Australian region. Finally, cool-season and monthly characteristics of cutoff low frequency, duration and location are plotted against cool-season and monthly values of climate driver indices (Oceanic Nino Index, Dipole Mean Index, and Antarctic Oscillation), to identify any evidence of linear correlation. Correlations between these aspects of cutoff low occurrence and the remote drivers were found to be statistically significant at the 95% level for only a single isolated month at a time, in contrast to results predicted by previous works. It is concluded that future studies of cutoff low variability over SEA should employ identification criteria that capture systems of only upper-level origin, and differentiate between cold-cored and cold-trough systems.

Concurrent calculation of radiative transfer in the atmospheric simulation in ECHAM-6.3.05p2

​​​​​​​The scalability of the atmospheric model ECHAM6 at low resolution, as used in palaeoclimate simulations, suffers from the limited number of grid points. As a consequence, the potential of current high-performance computing architectures cannot be used at full scale for such experiments, particularly within the available domain decomposition approach. Radiation calculations are a relatively expensive part of the atmospheric simulations, taking up to approximately 50 % or more of the total runtime. This current level of cost is achieved by calculating the radiative transfer only once in every 2 h of simulation. In response, we propose extending the available concurrency within the model further by running the radiation component in parallel with other atmospheric processes to improve scalability and performance. This paper introduces the concurrent radiation scheme in ECHAM6 and presents a thorough analysis of its impact on the performance of the model. It also evaluates the scientific results from such simulations. Our experiments show that ECHAM6 can achieve a speedup of over 1.9× using the concurrent radiation scheme. By performing a suite of stand-alone atmospheric experiments, we evaluate the influence of the concurrent radiation scheme on the scientific results. The simulated mean climate and internal climate variability by the concurrent radiation generally agree well with the classical radiation scheme, with minor improvements in the mean atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere and the atmospheric teleconnection to the Southern Annular Mode. This empirical study serves as a successful example that can stimulate research on other concurrent components in atmospheric modelling whenever scalability becomes challenging.

Relationship between Southern Hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere

Climate models show a wide range of Southern Hemispheric jet responses to greenhouse gas forcing. One approach to constrain future jet response is by utilising the fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) that links forced response to internal variability timescales, with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) the most dominant mode of variability of the Southern Hemispheric jet. We show that stratospheric variability approximately doubles the SAM timescale during austral summer in both re-analysis data and models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). Using a simple barotropic model, we demonstrate how the enhanced SAM timescale subsequently leads to an overestimate of the forced jet response based on FDT, and introduce a method to correct for the stratospheric influence. Even after accounting for this influence, the SAM timescale cannot explain inter-model differences in the forced jet shift across CMIP5 models during austral summer, owing to other confounding factors.

Influence of long-term changes in solar irradiance forcing on the Southern Annular Mode

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with major regional climate impacts. Observations, reconstructions, and historical climate simulations all show positive trends in the SAM since the 1960s; however, earlier trends in palaeoclimate SAM reconstructions cannot be reconciled with last millennium simulations. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the SAM to solar irradiance variations using simulations with a range of constant solar forcing values, and last millennium transient simulations with varying amplitude solar forcing scenarios. We find the mean SAM state can be significantly altered by solar irradiance changes, and that transient last millennium simulations using a high-amplitude solar scenario have an improved and significant agreement with proxy-based SAM reconstructions. Our findings suggest that the effects of solar forcing on high-latitude climate may not be adequately incorporated in most last millennium simulations, due to solar irradiance changes that are too small and/or the absence of interactive atmospheric chemistry in global climate models.