What Impact has lockdown on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 incidence, prevalence and mortality during second wave of pandemic in 2021: - observational & statistical analysis of Bihar-version 2
AbstractBackground: My research aimed to assess the impact of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the trends in the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the state of Bihar, India, during COVID-19 pandemic.Methods: The information on the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was obtained from Health Department Bihar, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and lockdown data were obtained from online websites as well. The impact of lockdown for 13 days before lockdown, first and second 13 days during lockdown, and 13 days after the lockdown on the incidence, prevalence and mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Bihar was analyzed with Microsoft office and stata 15.1 for windows (64bit). The same will be used with Microsoft office in next version-3 of article with addition of two more period of observation i.e. one more 13 day period before lockdown and one more period after the lock down in order to observe 2 period of same duration before lockdown and 2 periods of same duration after lockdown. This period is under observation right now by the author. The version-3 will also discuss lockdown model of Bihar with criteria of inclusion and exclusion of lockdown detailed in the article as well as analysis summary for understanding in brief.Results: The findings showed that except for Incidence /100000/ new death there was a trend toward a decline, and except for Prevalence/100000/confirmed cases from beginning of pandemic all other prevalence have increased. The total and observation period mortality rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic also increased.Conclusions: The findings indicate that 13 days after the lockdown, incidence, daily cases of COVID-19 and the growth of the disease showed a declined trend, but there was no significant decline in the prevalence and mortality. The study found that daily cases of SARS-COV-2 patients, and the growth factor results declined and the growth rate per day both declined to an impressive negative level in the case of the growth rate. The Bihar model of lockdown is of significance in reducing the daily new cases as well as it was found that, 13 days after the lockdown, the growth factor of the number of new daily cases decreased and the growth factor of new daily deaths was increased after the lockdown period.