Six failures of the Doherty Modelling Report

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31219/osf.io/an2w6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jeremy Howard ◽

Kalinda Griffiths ◽

Rachel Thomas

Keyword(s):

Downside Risk ◽

Child Transmission ◽

Model Uncertainties ◽

Transmission Failure ◽

Time Frames ◽

Model Failure

The Doherty Model is being used in Australia to justify partial reopening with 70% of adults vaccinated. However, we have identified six critical failures of the model: failure to model uncertainties; failure to use appropriate premises; failure to model subgroup vaccine takeup; failure to correctly model child transmission; failure to include relevant outcomes; and failure to consider longer time-frames. These failures result in missing over 200,000 cases of long covid in children, underestimating death counts by a factor of up to ten, underestimating the severity of the delta variant by a factor of two, and greatly underestimating the potential downside risk.

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Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: developing integration of healthcare programmes with clinical, social and basic research studies

Acta Paediatrica ◽

10.1080/08035250310006025 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 92 (11) ◽

pp. 1343-1348

Author(s):

Menu E ◽

Scarlatti G ◽

Barré-Sinoussi F ◽

Gray G ◽

Bollinger B ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Basic Research ◽

Mother To Child Transmission ◽

Child Transmission ◽

Mother To Child ◽

Research Studies

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Effects of Momentary Affect on Satisfaction Judgments

Journal of Individual Differences ◽

10.1027/1614-0001/a000304 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (2) ◽

pp. 61-67

Author(s):

Marko Tončić ◽

Petra Anić

Keyword(s):

Linear Models ◽

Time Frame ◽

Hierarchical Linear Models ◽

Curvilinear Relationship ◽

Positive And Negative Affect ◽

Transient Events ◽

Time Frames ◽

Events Data ◽

Level Satisfaction ◽

Source Of Information

Abstract. This study aims to examine the effect of affect on satisfaction, both at the between- and the within-person level for momentary assessments. Affect is regarded as an important source of information for life satisfaction judgments. This affective effect on satisfaction is well established at the dispositional level, while at the within-person level it is heavily under-researched. This is true especially for momentary assessments. In this experience sampling study both mood and satisfaction scales were administered five times a day for 7 days via hand-held devices ( N = 74 with 2,122 assessments). Several hierarchical linear models were fitted to the data. Even though the amount of between-person variance was relatively low, both positive and negative affect had substantial effects on momentary satisfaction on the between- and the within-person level as well. The within-person effects of affect on satisfaction appear to be more pronounced than the between-person ones. At the momentary level, the amount of between-person variance is lower than in studies with longer time-frames. The affect-related effects on satisfaction possibly have a curvilinear relationship with the time-frame used, increasing in intensity up to a point and then decreasing again. Such a relationship suggests that, at the momentary level, satisfaction might behave in a more stochastic manner, allowing for transient events/data which are not necessarily affect-related to affect it.

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