scholarly journals Modifying SEIR models to explore the role of average household size in the era of lockdowns and social distancing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Dempsey

Compartmental models have long been used to study the dynamics of infectious diseases without requiring the intensive computational power of more detailed simulations. The well mixing assumption on which they are based is typically valid when people are meeting a significant number of other people each day. However, in the Covid-19 era of lockdowns and social distancing, the number of non-household contacts has dropped significantly. Standard SEIR models cannot produce the expected result of an idealised lockdown (i.e. no non-household contacts), where the final number of infected is less than the average household size times the number of infected and exposed at the time of the lockdown. To correct this anomaly, we separate the household and non-household contributions to the total cases and apply a carrying capacity to the household acquired cases. Finally, we illustrate the application of the model to two countries with completely different approaches to managing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, New Zealand and Sweden. The sharp drop in cases in New Zealand following their lockdown can be well explained with a carrying capacity model, while we show that the Swedish approach could be extremely risky for countries with higher average household sizes.

Author(s):  
Peta Wellstead

This paper reports part of an ongoing study exploring the information behaviour of New Zealand men during periods of diminished health and wellbeing. Focus groups were used for this iteration of the study. Results indicate that New Zealand men face both personal and structural constraints to their information-seeking during periods when their health and wellbeing may be compromised. This study highlights that service providers need to develop more effective information delivery mechanisms and support services for men. These services need to be appealing to men and reflect men’s information seeking preferences. The role of LIS professionals in supporting this endeavour is discussed. Cet article présente une étude en cours explorant le comportement informationnel d’ hommes néo-zélandais durant des périodes où leur état de santé et de bien-être est amoindri. Des groupes de discussion ont été utilisés pour cette itération de l'étude. Les résultats indiquent que les hommes en Nouvelle-Zélande font face à des contraintes à la fois  personnelles et structurelles dans leur recherche d'information pendant les périodes où leur santé et leur bien-être peuvent être affaiblis. Cette étude met en évidence le besoin pour les fournisseurs de services de développer des mécanismes de diffusion de l'information plus efficaces et des services de soutien pour les hommes. Ces services doivent être attrayants et refléter les préférences des hommes dans leurs recherches d’information. Le rôle des professionnels de l'information dans le soutien à cette entreprise est discuté.


Author(s):  
Eva-Marie Kröller

This chapter discusses national literary histories in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the South Pacific and summarises the book's main findings regarding the construction and revision of narratives of national identity since 1950. In colonial and postcolonial cultures, literary history is often based on a paradox that says much about their evolving sense of collective identity, but perhaps even more about the strains within it. The chapter considers the complications typical of postcolonial literary history by focusing on the conflict between collective celebration and its refutation. It examines three issues relating to the histories of English-language fiction in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the South Pacific: problems of chronology and beginnings, with a special emphasis on Indigenous peoples; the role of the cultural elite and the history wars in the Australian context; and the influence of postcolonial networks on historical methodology.


2021 ◽  
Vol 91 (S2) ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
B. Mark Smithers ◽  
Robyn P. M. Saw ◽  
David E. Gyorki ◽  
Richard C. W. Martin ◽  
Victoria Atkinson ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-216108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Campbell ◽  
Lukas Marek ◽  
Jesse Wiki ◽  
Matthew Hobbs ◽  
Clive E Sabel ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has asked unprecedented questions of governments around the world. Policy responses have disrupted usual patterns of movement in society, locally and globally, with resultant impacts on national economies and human well-being. These interventions have primarily centred on enforcing lockdowns and introducing social distancing recommendations, leading to questions of trust and competency around the role of institutions and the administrative apparatus of state. This study demonstrates the unequal societal impacts in population movement during a national ‘lockdown’.MethodsWe use nationwide mobile phone movement data to quantify the effect of an enforced lockdown on population mobility by neighbourhood deprivation using an ecological study design. We then derive a mobility index using anonymised aggregated population counts for each neighbourhood (2253 Census Statistical Areas; mean population n=2086) of national hourly mobile phone location data (7.45 million records, 1 March 2020–20 July 2020) for New Zealand (NZ).ResultsCurtailing movement has highlighted and exacerbated underlying social and spatial inequalities. Our analysis reveals the unequal movements during ‘lockdown’ by neighbourhood socioeconomic status in NZ.ConclusionIn understanding inequalities in neighbourhood movements, we are contributing critical new evidence to the policy debate about the impact(s) and efficacy of national, regional or local lockdowns which have sparked such controversy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos ◽  
Darlan da Silva Candido ◽  
William Marciel de Souza ◽  
Lewis Buss ◽  
Sabrina L. Li ◽  
...  

AbstractBrazil has one of the fastest-growing COVID-19 epidemics worldwide. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted at the municipal level with asynchronous actions taken across 5,568 municipalities and the Federal District. This paper systematises the fragmented information on NPIs reporting on a novel dataset with survey responses from 4,027 mayors, covering 72.3% of all municipalities in the country. This dataset responds to the urgency to track and share findings on fragmented policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying NPIs can help to assess the role of interventions in reducing transmission. We offer spatial and temporal details for a range of measures aimed at implementing social distancing and the dates when these measures were relaxed by local governments.


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