Effects of Staged Deployment on the Economics of Global Broadband Internet Satellite Constellations
Historically constellations of communication satellites were designed to function optimally for a specific expected global demand. This estimation is based on assumptions of the number of users and the average activity per user, both of which are highly uncertain. This uncertainty can cause deployed constellations having a capacity far lower than demand, lowering performance and creating opportunity cost, or far higher than demand, potentially bankrupting the company that owns the system as income cannot recoup the initial investment. An approach has previously been proposed wherein a satellite constellation is deployed in stages with each stage increasing the capacity of the constellation through reconfiguration of on-orbit satellites and launch of new satellites. This method has been previously demonstrated to significantly reduce the lifecycle cost of low-earth orbit communication satellite constellations. Recent proposals for satellite constellations to support global broadband internet providers have introduced new technologies as well as new methods of constellation design resulting in far larger constellations than previously envisioned (mega-constellations). Renewed interest and investment in the development global broadband networks demand a return to this topic to investigate its impact in this space.