An infection model for severe COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ho P ◽  
Tan Chuen Wen ◽  
Jason Chay Wai Mun ◽  
Chandramouli Nagarajan ◽  
Ng Heng Joo

We wish to propose an infection model to address some of the unique and unusual features observed in COVID-19, eg. why were severe patients mounting more intense immune response compared to the mild cases, why did severe patients demonstrate higher and more protracted viral shedding when the immune response was greater, etc. In this exposition, we will first describe a generic acute viral infection framework based on work done mainly in influenza infection to understand the acute infective cycle, then contrast it with COVID-19 data to highlight main differences to construct a pathogenic model, and finally extrapolate to discuss applications in potential therapeutic considerations.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
P Ho

UNSTRUCTURED We wish to propose an infection model to address some of the unique and unusual features observed in COVID-19, eg. why were severe patients mounting more intense immune response compared to the mild cases, why did severe patients demonstrate higher and more protracted viral shedding when the immune response was greater, etc. In this exposition, we will first describe a generic acute viral infection framework based on work done mainly in influenza infection to understand the acute infective cycle, then contrast it with COVID-19 data to highlight main differences to construct a pathogenic model, and finally extrapolate to discuss applications in potential therapeutic considerations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 1950161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinhu Xu ◽  
Yan Geng ◽  
Suxia Zhang

We have developed a class of viral infection model with cell-to-cell transmission and humoral immune response. The model addresses both immune and intracellular delays. We also constructed Lyapunov functionals to establish the global dynamical properties of the equilibria. Theoretical results indicate that considering only two intracellular delays did not affect the dynamical behavior of the model, but incorporating an immune delay greatly affects the dynamics, i.e. an immune delay may destabilize the immunity-activated equilibrium and lead to Hopf bifurcation, oscillations and stability switches. Our results imply that an immune delay dominates the intracellular delays in the model. We also investigated the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the periodic solutions by applying normal form and center manifold theory, and investigated the existence of global Hopf bifurcation by regarding the immune delay as a bifurcation parameter. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytical conclusions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 2577-2586 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. E. Crump ◽  
P. K. Langston ◽  
S. Rajkarnikar ◽  
J. M. Grayson

2015 ◽  
Vol 89 (8) ◽  
pp. 4517-4526 ◽  
Author(s):  
William S. DeWitt ◽  
Ryan O. Emerson ◽  
Paul Lindau ◽  
Marissa Vignali ◽  
Thomas M. Snyder ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTA detailed characterization of the dynamics and breadth of the immune response to an acute viral infection, as well as the determinants of recruitment to immunological memory, can greatly contribute to our basic understanding of the mechanics of the human immune system and can ultimately guide the design of effective vaccines. In addition to neutralizing antibodies, T cells have been shown to be critical for the effective resolution of acute viral infections. We report the first in-depth analysis of the dynamics of the CD8+T cell repertoire at the level of individual T cell clonal lineages upon vaccination of human volunteers with a single dose of YF-17D. This live attenuated yellow fever virus vaccine yields sterile, long-term immunity and has been previously used as a model to understand the immune response to a controlled acute viral infection. We identified and enumerated unique CD8+T cell clones specifically induced by this vaccine through a combined experimental and statistical approach that included high-throughput sequencing of the CDR3 variable region of the T cell receptor β-chain and an algorithm that detected significantly expanded T cell clones. This allowed us to establish that (i) on average, ∼2,000 CD8+T cell clones were induced by YF-17D, (ii) 5 to 6% of the responding clones were recruited to long-term memory 3 months postvaccination, (iii) the most highly expanded effector clones were preferentially recruited to the memory compartment, and (iv) a fraction of the YF-17D-induced clones could be identified from peripheral blood lymphocytes solely by measuring clonal expansion.IMPORTANCEThe exhaustive investigation of pathogen-induced effector T cells is essential to accurately quantify the dynamics of the human immune response. The yellow fever vaccine (YFV) has been broadly used as a model to understand how a controlled, self-resolving acute viral infection induces an effective and long-term protective immune response. Here, we extend this previous work by reporting the identity of activated effector T cell clones that expand in response to the YFV 2 weeks postvaccination (as defined by their unique T cell receptor gene sequence) and by tracking clones that enter the memory compartment 3 months postvaccination. This is the first study to use high-throughput sequencing of immune cells to characterize the breadth of the antiviral effector cell response and to determine the contribution of unique virus-induced clones to the long-lived memory T cell repertoire. Thus, this study establishes a benchmark against which future vaccines can be compared to predict their efficacy.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Mahrouf ◽  
K. Hattaf ◽  
N. Yousfi

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.J. Sego ◽  
Ericka D. Mochan ◽  
G. Bard Ermentrout ◽  
James A. Glazier

AbstractRespiratory viral infections pose a serious public health concern, from mild seasonal influenza to pandemics like those of SARS-CoV-2. Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral infection impact nearly all aspects of the progression of a viral infection, like the dependence of viral replication rates on the type of cell and pathogen, the strength of the immune response and localization of infection. Mathematical modeling is often used to describe respiratory viral infections and the immune response to them using ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. However, ODE models neglect spatially-resolved biophysical mechanisms like lesion shape and the details of viral transport, and so cannot model spatial effects of a viral infection and immune response. In this work, we develop a multiscale, multicellular spatiotemporal model of influenza infection and immune response by combining non-spatial ODE modeling and spatial, cell-based modeling. We employ cellularization, a recently developed method for generating spatial, cell-based, stochastic models from non-spatial ODE models, to generate much of our model from a calibrated ODE model that describes infection, death and recovery of susceptible cells and innate and adaptive responses during influenza infection, and develop models of cell migration and other mechanisms not explicitly described by the ODE model. We determine new model parameters to generate agreement between the spatial and original ODE models under certain conditions, where simulation replicas using our model serve as microconfigurations of the ODE model, and compare results between the models to investigate the nature of viral exposure and impact of heterogeneous infection on the time-evolution of the viral infection. We found that using spatially homogeneous initial exposure conditions consistently with those employed during calibration of the ODE model generates far less severe infection, and that local exposure to virus must be multiple orders of magnitude greater than a uniformly applied exposure to all available susceptible cells. This strongly suggests a prominent role of localization of exposure in influenza A infection. We propose that the particularities of the microenvironment to which a virus is introduced plays a dominant role in disease onset and progression, and that spatially resolved models like ours may be important to better understand and more reliably predict future health states based on susceptibility of potential lesion sites using spatially resolved patient data of the state of an infection. We can readily integrate the immune response components of our model into other modeling and simulation frameworks of viral infection dynamics that do detailed modeling of other mechanisms like viral internalization and intracellular viral replication dynamics, which are not explicitly represented in the ODE model. We can also combine our model with available experimental data and modeling of exposure scenarios and spatiotemporal aspects of mechanisms like mucociliary clearance that are only implicitly described by the ODE model, which would significantly improve the ability of our model to present spatially resolved predictions about the progression of influenza infection and immune response.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-158
Author(s):  
Jia Liu ◽  
Qunying Zhang ◽  
Canrong Tian

This paper is concerned with the dynamics of a viral infection model with diffusion under the assumption that the immune response is retarded. A time delay is incorporated into the model described the delayed immune response after viral infection. Based upon a stability analysis, we demonstrate that the appearance, or the absence, of spatial patterns is determined by the delay under some conditions. Moreover, the spatial patterns occurs as a consequence of Hopf bifurcation. By applying the normal form and the center manifold theory, the direction as well as the stability of the Hopf bifurcation is explored. In addition, a series of numerical simulations are performed to illustrate our theoretical results.


2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunfei Li ◽  
Rui Xu ◽  
Zhe Li ◽  
Shuxue Mao

A delayed HIV-1 infection model with CTL immune response is investigated. By using suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is proved that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction ratio for viral infection is less than or equal to unity; if the basic reproduction ratio for CTL immune response is less than or equal to unity and the basic reproduction ratio for viral infection is greater than unity, the CTL-inactivated infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if the basic reproduction ratio for CTL immune response is greater than unity, the CTL-activated infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.


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