Fear of psychotic relapse: exploring dynamic interactions with common early warning signs of relapse using experience sampling methodology

Background: Fear of relapse is an independent risk factor for future relapse events indicating its importance in clinical management and early warning signs-based relapse prevention monitoring.Methods: 25 participants who were taking part in a clinical trial of relapse prevention in schizophrenia responded to daily ecological momentary assessment prompts assessing common early warning signs of relapse and self-reported positive experiences like feeling supported by others. We conducted multilevel vector auto-regression using common symptoms assessed in early warning signs monitoring relapse prevention while controlling for positive self-reported experiences like feeling supported by others to estimate three networks (to explore concurrent, temporal and mean levels across the whole time period).Results: Reporting fear of relapse was positively associated (within the same cross-sectional time window) with hearing voices, alongside anxiety, negative affect and sleep change. Fear of relapse appeared to predict anxiety and negative affect on the next consecutive day. Experiencing fear of relapse on one day meant being more likely to also experience fear of relapse again at the next consecutive time point. However, none of the common early warning signs predicted fear of relapse within the temporal window and all observed relationships were small. Discussion: Early warning signs themselves appear poor predictors of experiencing fear of relapse but because fear of relapse predicts later anxiety and negative affect (even to a small degree) it may be a valuable intervention target within the daily life of people diagnosed with schizophrenia.