Risk perception as a double-edged sword in policy compliance in COVID-19 pandemic? A two-phase evaluation from Hong Kong

The emphasis of risk has been recognized as a crucial component to effective and successful policy compliance amidst crisis. Yet, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the dreadfulness of the risk may fluctuate with the severity of the prolonged pandemic, and the nature of public health policy is not confined purely to public health concerns, perceived risk may not always lead to policy compliance. Two surveys (during almost zero case period and during the biggest outbreak) were conducted to examine the dichotomous role of perceived risk and perceived susceptibility in influencing policy compliance in Hong Kong. Although policy compliance increases with the scale of the outbreak, results from path analysis showed that perceived susceptibility and perceived severity have an indirect role in policy complying behaviour when the objective risk is low. Risk variables, such as attitude, knowledge, benefit and trust, have directly shaped policy compliance. More importantly, perceived severity of COVID-19 boosts policy compliance but perceived susceptibility was associated with disobedience to public health policy. Meanwhile, Hong Kong citizens have a selective and conscious preference in regard to the stringency of public health policy: they welcome more law and order, with increasing magnitude of penalty, but reject lockdown measures such as curfew. Regression results implied that demography had a mild contribution to public health policy stringency, with only the female gender being statistically related to higher policy acceptance. This study calls for further reflection on the role of risk, especially perceived susceptibility, in mobilizing policy compliance to COVID-19 related measures.