scholarly journals A Pragmatist's Guide to Prediction in the Social Sciences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Verhagen
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Simple Technique ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Philosophical Debate ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Many

Making out-of-sample predictions is an under-utilised tool in the social sciences, often for the wrong reasons. Many social scientists confuse prediction with unnecessarily complicated methods, or narrowly predicting the future. This is unfortunate, because prediction understood as the simple process of evaluating a model outside of the sample used for estimation is a much more general, and disarmingly simple technique that brings a host of benefits to our empirical workflow. One needn't use complicated methods or be solely concerned with predicting the future to use prediction, nor is it necessary to resolve the centuries-old philosophical debate between prediction and explanation to appreciate its benefits. Prediction can and should be used as a simple complement to the rich methodological tradition in the social sciences, and is equally applicable across a vast multitude of modelling approaches, owing to its simplicity and intuitive nature. For all its simplicity, the value of prediction should not be underestimated. Prediction can address some of the most enduring sources of criticism plaguing the social sciences, like lack of external validity and the use of overly simplistic models to capture social life. In this paper, I illustrate these benefits with a host of empirical examples that merely skim the surface of the many and varied ways in which prediction can be applied, staking the claim that prediction is one of those illustrious `free lunches' that can greatly benefit the empirical social sciences.

Globalizations

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Osterhammel
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
World History ◽  
Academic Disciplines ◽  
Contemporary Society ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Characteristic Features

The revival of world history towards the end of the twentieth century was intimately connected with the rise of a new master concept in the social sciences: globalization. Historians and social scientists responded to the same generational experience that the interconnectedness of social life on the planet had arrived at a new level of intensity. The conclusions drawn from this insight in the various academic disciplines diverged considerably. The early theorists of globalization in sociology, political science, and economics disdained a historical perspective. The new concept seemed ideally suited to grasp the characteristic features of contemporary society. It helped to pinpoint the very essence of present-day modernity. Globalization opened up a way towards the social science mainstream, provided elements of a fresh terminology to a field that had suffered for a long time from an excess of descriptive simplicity.

scholarly journals Future Anticipation in Sociology

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 333-341
Author(s):  
Carlos Miguel Ferreira ◽  
Sandro Serpa
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Social Situations ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
The Future ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
Scientific Fields

The ability to make forecasts about events is a goal favored by the so-called exact sciences. In sociology and other social sciences, the forecast, although often sought after, is not likely to be realized unconditionally. This article seeks to problematize and discuss the connection between sociology and forecast. The object of study of sociology has particular features that distinguish it from other scientific fields, namely facts and social situations, which deal with trends; the systems of belief of social scientists and policymakers that can influence the attempt to anticipate the future; the dissemination of information and knowledge produced by sociology and other social sciences, which have the potential to change reality and, consequently, to call into question their capacity for the social forecast. These principles pose challenges to sociology’s heuristic potentials, making the reflection on these challenges indispensable in the scientific approach to social processes.

scholarly journals The social life of time and methods: Studying London’s temporal architectures

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 604-631
Author(s):  
Ella Harris ◽  
Rebecca Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Built Environment ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Social Worlds ◽  
Temporal Logics ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Rhythms

This paper contributes to work on the social life of time. It focuses on how time is doubled; produced by, and productive of, the relations and processes it operates through. In particular, it explores the methodological implications of this conception of time for how social scientists may study the doubledness of time. It draws on an allied move within the social sciences to see methods as themselves doubled, as both emerging from and constitutive of the social worlds that they seek to understand. We detail our own very different methodological experiments with studying the social life of time in London, engaging interactive documentary to elucidate nonlinear imaginaries of space-time in London’s pop-up culture (Ella Harris) and encountering time on a series of walks along a particular stretch of road in south east London (Beckie Coleman). While clearly different projects in terms of their content, ambition and scope, in bringing these projects together, we show the ability of our methods to grasp and perform from multiple angles and scales what Sharma (2014) calls ‘temporal architectures’. Temporal architectures, composed of elements including the built environment, commodities, services, technologies and labour, are infrastructures that enable social rhythms and temporal logics and that can entail a politicized valuing of the time of certain groups over others. We aim to contribute to an expanded and enriched conceptualisation of methods for exploring time, considering what our studies might offer to work on the doubled social life of time and methods, and highlighting in particular their implications for an engagement with a politics of time and temporality.

scholarly journals Perspective sur la prospective

2009 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 330-342
Author(s):  
Jean-Luc Migué
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Adaptation Mechanisms ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physical Variables ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
World Output

Long term forecasting, as popularized by some recent models of the world, appears to be a-scientific from the standpoint of the social scientists. The basis for this radical judgment is threefold: First, structural relations incorporated into these models of the world seldom go further than stating rigid relations between some physical variables and world output. Second, the factual basis on which these relations are built is often not validated by past trends. Finally, the framework within which these models are cast rules out all possibly for the social sciences to contribute to our understanding of the future. Political and economic adaptation mechanisms are excluded. Futurology as developed by some models is based on poor measurement and poor theory.

scholarly journals A Brief History of the Future of World Society

2005 ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Mark Herkenrath ◽  
Claudia König ◽  
Hanno Scholtz
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
International Symposium ◽  
World Society ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
History Of ◽  
University Of Zurich ◽  
The University

Earlier versions of the articles in this issue were presented and discussed atthe international symposium on “The Future of World Society,” held in June 2004 at the University of Zurich.¹ The theme of the symposium implied two assumptions. One, there is in fact a world society, though still very much in formation. And two, as social scientists we are in a position to predict the future of that society with at least some degree of certainty. The ?rst of these assumptions will be addressed in Alberto Martinelli’s timely contribution, “From World System to World Society?” It is the second assumption which is of interest to us in this introduction. Are the social sciences really able to predict the future of world society?

The Future of the Social Sciences: Between Empiricism and Normativity

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (03) ◽  
pp. 343-360
Author(s):  
Andrew Abbott
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Social World ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Many

This article takes a processualist position to identify the current forces conducive to rapid change in the social sciences, of which the most important is the divergence between their empirical and normative dimensions. It argues that this gap between the many and various empirical ontologies we typically use and the much more restricted normative ontology on which we base our moral judgments is problematic. In fact, the majority of social science depends on a “normative contractarianism.” While this ontology is the most widely used basis for normative judgments in the social sciences, it is not really effective when it comes to capturing the normative problems raised by the particularity and historicity of the social process, nor the astonishing diversity of values in the world. The article closes with a call to establish a truly processual foundation for our analysis of the social world, which must move away from contractualism and imagine new ways of founding the human normative project.

scholarly journals EDITORIAL

1993 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. v-viii
Author(s):  
Sayyid M. Syeed
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Theory Building ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Critical Approach ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
New Model ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Science Framework

This is the tenth year of the existence of AJISS. Starting from a publicationschedule of twice a year in 1984 to three times a year in 1989, itbecame a desk-topped quarterly in 1993. In 1992, due to increased demand,we began printing AJISS simultaneously in Washington, DC, andMalaysia. This year, it will also be published in Pakistan as well as translatedinto Turkish in Turkey, in shii. Allah. We are grateful to AlmightyAllah for our widespread readership and for the contributions sent fromaround the globe.In this issue, we feature two articles on various theoretical aspects ofthe Islamization of knowledge. The first one, by Ibrahim A. Ragab, discussestheory building in the Islamic social sciences. He argues for an alternativesocial science framework based on the Islamization paradigm,which he asserts could integrate both empirical and nonempirical elementsof behavior into a united system of explanation. Exploring the possibilityof using knowledge derived from revelation as a major source in the processof theory building, he encourages Muslim social scientists to drawupon the rich insights derived from the transcendental sources, but onlyafter subjecting the resulting propositions to stringent verification. Ragabassures us that this new model rejects unwanted dogmatism, unwarrantedexclusiveness, and a parochiality that shuns anything that comes by wayof non-Muslims. Muslim social scientists, he opines, will have to reorienttheir critical approach to their disciplines and also acquire a better understandingof the religious sciences: revealed knowledge. This would ensurea Muslim contribution in the social sciences, a contribution that disappearedduring centuries of stagnation in the Islamic ummah.In the second paper, Louay Safi examines the progress of the Islamizationof knowledge project over the last decade. He outlines the generalframework, analyzes the work of its proponents and critics (al Faruqi, alBuff, Rahman, 'AbuSulayman, Arif, Umziyan, Abul-Fadl), and proposesmodifications aimed at overcoming the difficulties inherent in the originalplan. Safi makes it clear at the outset that even though the production of ...

scholarly journals Issues, problems and potential solutions when simulating continuous, non-normal data in the social sciences

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Lorenzo Olvera Astivia
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Undue Influence ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Degree Of Control ◽  
The Many

Computer simulations have become one of the most prominent tools for methodologists in the social sciences to evaluate the properties of their statistical techniques and to offer best practice recommendations. Amongst the many uses of computer simulations, evaluating the robustness of methods to their assumptions, particularly univariate or multivariate normality, is crucial to ensure the appropriateness of data analysis. In order to accomplish this, quantitative researchers need to be able to generate data where they have a degree of control over its non-normal properties. Even though great advances have been achieved in statistical theory and computational power, the task of simulating multivariate, non-normal data is not straightforward. There are inherent conceptual and mathematical complexities implied by the phrase ``non-normality'' which are not always reflected in the simulations studies conduced by social scientists. The present article attempts to offer a summary of some of the issues concerning the simulation of multivariate, non-normal data in the social sciences. An overview of common algorithms is presented as well as some of the characteristics and idiosyncrasies that implied in them which may exert undue influence in the results of simulation studies. A call is made to encourage the meta-scientific study of computer simulations in the social sciences in order to understand how simulation designs frame the teaching, usage and practice of statistical techniques within the social sciences.

The Force of Dispositifs

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (02) ◽  
pp. 291-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dodier ◽  
Janine Barbot
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Criminal Trial ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Way ◽  
Processual Approach

The social sciences have much to gain by paying particular attention to the place that dispositifs occupy in social life. The utility of such a perspective is clear from an examination of the research that has made use of this notion since the end of the 1970s. Yet in addition to the wide variety of definitions and objectives relating to the concept of dispositif, a reading of these works also reveals some of the difficulties that have been encountered along the way. An effort to clarify and renew the discussion on both the conceptual and methodological levels is thus worthwhile, and this article is a contribution to that end. The first section sets out the results of our conceptual inquiry into the notion of dispositif. The second puts forward a series of propositions designed to develop a “processual” approach to dispositifs. Finally, we return to several studies that we have conducted from this perspective relating to the dispositifs of redress, looking at the doctrinal work of jurists around a criminal trial, the practices of lawyers in the courtroom, the reactions of victims of a medical scandal to a compensation fund, and the historical transformation of dispositifs of redress for medical accidents since the beginning of the nineteenth century. This enables us to clarify the approach we propose and to suggest new avenues for the future.

The reformed social sciences to reform the university: mission impossible?

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davydd J. Greenwood ◽  
Morten Levin
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Higher Education ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Knowledge Generation ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Organisational Factors ◽  
The University

The core argument is that social science must re-examine its mission and praxis in order to be a significant player in future higher education. This article reviews the results and prospects arising from a four-year international project. Originating in Greenwood and Levin's concern about the social sciences, the project, funded by the Ford Foundation, was organised as an action research network of social scientists. Meeting several times over four years, the assembled group of scholars shifted focus from the future of the social sciences to broader questions of the future of higher education as a whole and the possible role of the social sciences. Four issues emerged as vital future challenges:• Collective denial among academics that knowledge production (research and teaching) is a collaborative effort and that individual academics depend on and are responsible for contributing to the health of the academic collectivity.• Academic freedom, conceived as an individual right is under siege and will have to be reconstructed to include both individual rights and collective and institutional responsibilities and rights in higher education.• An appreciation of the multiplicity of teaching, research and organisational factors that interact to constitute healthy universities is lacking in most quarters.• Technologies of accountability now drive the development of higher education towards a focus on an artificially narrow metrics of knowledge-generation and away from inquiry into what constitutes relevant and sustainable knowledge-generation practices.

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