scholarly journals Perspective sur la prospective

2009 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 330-342
Author(s):  
Jean-Luc Migué
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Adaptation Mechanisms ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physical Variables ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
World Output

Long term forecasting, as popularized by some recent models of the world, appears to be a-scientific from the standpoint of the social scientists. The basis for this radical judgment is threefold: First, structural relations incorporated into these models of the world seldom go further than stating rigid relations between some physical variables and world output. Second, the factual basis on which these relations are built is often not validated by past trends. Finally, the framework within which these models are cast rules out all possibly for the social sciences to contribute to our understanding of the future. Political and economic adaptation mechanisms are excluded. Futurology as developed by some models is based on poor measurement and poor theory.

scholarly journals Globalization, Class and Culture in Global Systems

2000 ◽  
pp. 636-656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Global Age ◽  
The World ◽  
Immanuel Wallerstein ◽  
Global Systems ◽  
Proper Account

The work of Immanuel Wallerstein has been criticized by certain anthropologists for not having taken culture into proper account. He has been accused of the sin of political economy, a not uncommon accusation, a re?ex of the 80’s and post-80’s anthropological jargon that might ?nally today be exhausted. Years earlier a number of social scientists were engaged in a critical assessment of the social sciences from a distinctively global perspective. Wallerstein, Frank and others were at the forefront of this critique which had a powerful impact on anthropology. The global perspective was not a mere addition to anthropological knowledge, not a mere of extension of the use of the culture concept, i.e. before it was local and now it is global, before culture stood still, but now in the global age, it ?ows around the world. It was a more fundamental critique, or at least it implied a more fundamental critique. This critique could only be attained from a perspective in which the very concept of society was re-conceived as something very different, as a locus constructed within a historical force ?eld which was very much broader than any particular politically de?ned unit.

scholarly journals Future Anticipation in Sociology

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 333-341
Author(s):  
Carlos Miguel Ferreira ◽  
Sandro Serpa
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Social Situations ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Approach ◽  
The Future ◽  
Object Of Study ◽  
Scientific Fields

The ability to make forecasts about events is a goal favored by the so-called exact sciences. In sociology and other social sciences, the forecast, although often sought after, is not likely to be realized unconditionally. This article seeks to problematize and discuss the connection between sociology and forecast. The object of study of sociology has particular features that distinguish it from other scientific fields, namely facts and social situations, which deal with trends; the systems of belief of social scientists and policymakers that can influence the attempt to anticipate the future; the dissemination of information and knowledge produced by sociology and other social sciences, which have the potential to change reality and, consequently, to call into question their capacity for the social forecast. These principles pose challenges to sociology’s heuristic potentials, making the reflection on these challenges indispensable in the scientific approach to social processes.

scholarly journals A Pragmatist's Guide to Prediction in the Social Sciences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Verhagen
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Simple Technique ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Philosophical Debate ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Rich ◽  
The Many

Making out-of-sample predictions is an under-utilised tool in the social sciences, often for the wrong reasons. Many social scientists confuse prediction with unnecessarily complicated methods, or narrowly predicting the future. This is unfortunate, because prediction understood as the simple process of evaluating a model outside of the sample used for estimation is a much more general, and disarmingly simple technique that brings a host of benefits to our empirical workflow. One needn't use complicated methods or be solely concerned with predicting the future to use prediction, nor is it necessary to resolve the centuries-old philosophical debate between prediction and explanation to appreciate its benefits. Prediction can and should be used as a simple complement to the rich methodological tradition in the social sciences, and is equally applicable across a vast multitude of modelling approaches, owing to its simplicity and intuitive nature. For all its simplicity, the value of prediction should not be underestimated. Prediction can address some of the most enduring sources of criticism plaguing the social sciences, like lack of external validity and the use of overly simplistic models to capture social life. In this paper, I illustrate these benefits with a host of empirical examples that merely skim the surface of the many and varied ways in which prediction can be applied, staking the claim that prediction is one of those illustrious `free lunches' that can greatly benefit the empirical social sciences.

scholarly journals Editorial: The Future of Social Sciences

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bulent Tarman
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Networking ◽  
The Internet ◽  
New Order ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global And Local

We have been facing with several challenges in all over the World. Global and local economies are facing threats as well as the increasing numbers of migrants that have not been seen for several decades. Resources are becoming scarcer and more expensive as we consume more. Technology and especially the internet and social networking are changing the way we work, interact and communicate. The question of "Why is the study of social sciences so critical to our future?" has been asked number of times in the past! To speak of the future of the social sciences is not an easy task especially nowadays where the dynamics of the World has been dramatically changing which brings lots of crisis with pain at every level from local to global.  The name of this change has been called as the "New Order of the World" as some of the players lose their power and importance while new players comes in to show themselves and claim that they are also important and cannot be ignored!

scholarly journals A Brief History of the Future of World Society

2005 ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Mark Herkenrath ◽  
Claudia König ◽  
Hanno Scholtz
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
International Symposium ◽  
World Society ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
History Of ◽  
University Of Zurich ◽  
The University

Earlier versions of the articles in this issue were presented and discussed atthe international symposium on “The Future of World Society,” held in June 2004 at the University of Zurich.¹ The theme of the symposium implied two assumptions. One, there is in fact a world society, though still very much in formation. And two, as social scientists we are in a position to predict the future of that society with at least some degree of certainty. The ?rst of these assumptions will be addressed in Alberto Martinelli’s timely contribution, “From World System to World Society?” It is the second assumption which is of interest to us in this introduction. Are the social sciences really able to predict the future of world society?

The Future of the Social Sciences: Between Empiricism and Normativity

2016 ◽  
Vol 71 (03) ◽  
pp. 343-360
Author(s):  
Andrew Abbott
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Social World ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Many

This article takes a processualist position to identify the current forces conducive to rapid change in the social sciences, of which the most important is the divergence between their empirical and normative dimensions. It argues that this gap between the many and various empirical ontologies we typically use and the much more restricted normative ontology on which we base our moral judgments is problematic. In fact, the majority of social science depends on a “normative contractarianism.” While this ontology is the most widely used basis for normative judgments in the social sciences, it is not really effective when it comes to capturing the normative problems raised by the particularity and historicity of the social process, nor the astonishing diversity of values in the world. The article closes with a call to establish a truly processual foundation for our analysis of the social world, which must move away from contractualism and imagine new ways of founding the human normative project.

scholarly journals Data Curation Standards and Social Science Occupational Information Resources

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Lambert ◽  
Vernon Gayle ◽  
Larry Tan ◽  
Ken Turner ◽  
Richard Sinnott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Web Pages ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Data Indexing ◽  
Digital Curation ◽  
Occupational Information ◽  
The Social ◽  
Indexing Service

Occupational information resources - data about the characteristics of different occupational positions - are widely used in the social sciences, across a range of disciplines and international contexts. They are available in many formats, most often constituting small electronic files that are made freely downloadable from academic web pages. However there are several challenges associated with how occupational information resources are distributed to, and exploited by, social researchers. In this paper we describe features of occupational information resources, and indicate the role digital curation can play in exploiting them. We report upon the strategies used in the GEODE research project (Grid Enabled Occupational Data Environment1). This project attempts to develop long-term standards for the distribution of occupational information resources, by providing a standardized framework-based electronic depository for occupational information resources, and by providing a data indexing service, based on e-Science middleware, which collates occupational information resources and makes them readily accessible to non-specialist social scientists.

Practicing Comparison

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Everyday Practice ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Varied Range ◽  
Software Programs ◽  
Social Scientific

This book compares things, objects, concepts, and ideas. It is also about the practical acts of doing comparison. Comparison is not something that exists in the world, but a particular kind of activity. Agents of various kinds compare by placing things next to one another, by using software programs and other tools, and by simply looking in certain ways. Comparing like this is an everyday practice. But in the social sciences, comparing often becomes more burdensome, more complex, and more questions are asked of it. How, then, do social scientists compare? What role do funders, their tools, and databases play in social scientific comparisons? Which sorts of objects do they choose to compare and how do they decide which comparisons are meaningful? Doing comparison in the social sciences, it emerges, is a practice weighed down by a history in which comparison was seen as problematic. As it plays out in the present, this history encounters a range of other agents also involved in doing comparison who may challenge the comparisons of social scientists themselves. This book introduces these questions through a varied range of reports, auto-ethnographies, and theoretical interventions that compare and analyse these different and often intersecting comparisons. Its goal is to begin a move away from the critique of comparison and towards a better comparative practice, guided not by abstract principles, but a deeper understanding of the challenges of practising comparison.

scholarly journals Global View Of A Sustainable Society And Its Stability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Burkhardt
Keyword(s):  
Distribution System ◽  
Invisible Hand ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Regional Deprivation ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Global Planning

It is often said, and at present it is probably true that famine and poverty in some parts of the world are a problem of distribution rather than one of production of the necessities of life. The improvement of our distribution system, however, does not only solve an acute problem of regional deprivation, but also creates regional interdependence. Thus, with present day transcontinental trade the questions related to sustainability become global issues. The whole world is an interconnected network. Is there some "invisible hand" which guides local actions in a direction beneficial to the whole or does this connectedness necessitate deliberate global planning?A similar question arises when we look far ahead in time. Many people have a blind trust in the future and are unconcerned with questions of long term sustainability of human civilization. Those who believe in science and technology respond to warnings of global sustenance problems: "The engineers will invent something that will solve our problems." Those with a religious bent say: "Why worry about tomorrow? 'He' who has provided for us in the past will do so in the future." How useful is this fatalistic stance today? Given the knowledge we possess, are we not responsible for irreversible damages to the Planet which will burden future generations? Is mankind capable of consciously choosing its future path?This paper analyses the state of the World and the stability of the processes in it. We take a global and long term perspective. The basic tool used is a balance equation for material, cultural, biological, social and ecological substances. Conditions for sustainable, dynamic equilibria are derived and presented in per capita values in order to facilitate intuitive comprehension. Possible contributions to sustainability of the natural sciences and engineering and of the social sciences and the humanities are outlined. In conclusion some desirable and some accidental paths to sustainability are given.

scholarly journals Global View Of A Sustainable Society And Its Stability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Burkhardt
Keyword(s):  
Distribution System ◽  
Invisible Hand ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Regional Deprivation ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Global Planning

It is often said, and at present it is probably true that famine and poverty in some parts of the world are a problem of distribution rather than one of production of the necessities of life. The improvement of our distribution system, however, does not only solve an acute problem of regional deprivation, but also creates regional interdependence. Thus, with present day transcontinental trade the questions related to sustainability become global issues. The whole world is an interconnected network. Is there some "invisible hand" which guides local actions in a direction beneficial to the whole or does this connectedness necessitate deliberate global planning?A similar question arises when we look far ahead in time. Many people have a blind trust in the future and are unconcerned with questions of long term sustainability of human civilization. Those who believe in science and technology respond to warnings of global sustenance problems: "The engineers will invent something that will solve our problems." Those with a religious bent say: "Why worry about tomorrow? 'He' who has provided for us in the past will do so in the future." How useful is this fatalistic stance today? Given the knowledge we possess, are we not responsible for irreversible damages to the Planet which will burden future generations? Is mankind capable of consciously choosing its future path?This paper analyses the state of the World and the stability of the processes in it. We take a global and long term perspective. The basic tool used is a balance equation for material, cultural, biological, social and ecological substances. Conditions for sustainable, dynamic equilibria are derived and presented in per capita values in order to facilitate intuitive comprehension. Possible contributions to sustainability of the natural sciences and engineering and of the social sciences and the humanities are outlined. In conclusion some desirable and some accidental paths to sustainability are given.

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