Different from the reliability prediction method on handbook, the reliability prediction method based on Physics of Failure (PoF) model takes failure mechanism as theoretical basis, and combines the design in-formation with the environment stress of the product to predict the time to failure. When the uncertain of the parameters is considered to predict the reliability, Monte-Carlo calculation method is always used here. How-ever, the Monte-Carlo method needs large computational cost, especially for large and complicated electronic systems. A new reliability prediction method which combines the first order reliability with the reliability pre-diction method based on PoF model was proposed. The new method utilized the first order method to calculate the position of design point and reliability index, thus Monte-Carlo calculation process was avoided. Example calculation results showed that the new method improves the prediction efficiency without decreasing the accuracy of reliability, thus it is feasible for reliability prediction of electronic product in engineering.
New Method of Monte Carlo Calculation Using the Distorted Scattering Angle Distribution Depending on the Surface Roughness