The Role of Economic Forecasting in Provincial Budgetary Plans

1967 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 40-46
Author(s):  
Vladimir Salyzyn
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecasting

Development of Social and Economic Forecasting and Ideas of A. Anchishkin

2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Planning ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Working Out

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.

scholarly journals Acknowledging Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting. Some Insight from Confidence and Industrial Trend Surveys

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Jesús López-Menéndez ◽  
Rigoberto Pérez-Suárez
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Traditional Practice ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Quadratic Entropy ◽  
Significant Evidence ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Ex Ante

The role of uncertainty has become increasingly important in economic forecasting, due to both theoretical and empirical reasons. Although the traditional practice consisted of reporting point predictions without specifying the attached probabilities, uncertainty about the prospects deserves increasing attention, and recent literature has tried to quantify the level of uncertainty perceived by different economic agents, also examining its effects and determinants. In this context, the present paper aims to analyze the uncertainty in economic forecasting, paying attention to qualitative perceptions from confidence and industrial trend surveys and making use of the related ex-ante probabilities. With this objective, two entropy-based measures (Shannon’s and quadratic entropy) are computed, providing significant evidence about the perceived level of uncertainty. Our empirical findings show that survey’s respondents are able to distinguish between current and prospective uncertainty and between general and personal uncertainty. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty negatively affects economic growth.

Improving the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Goodwin ◽  
Dilek Önkal ◽  
Michael Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting

2008 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Elliott ◽  
Allan Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Loss Function ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
True Model

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster's objectives. Decision theory provides a framework for both the construction and evaluation of forecasts. This framework allows an understanding of the challenges that arise from the explosion in the sheer volume of predictor variables under consideration and the forecaster's ability to entertain an endless array of forecasting models and time-varying specifications, none of which may coincide with the “true” model. We show this along with reviewing methods for comparing the forecasting performance of pairs of models or evaluating the ability of the best of many models to beat a benchmark specification.

Role of dactinomycin in the improved survival of children with Wilms' tumor

JAMA ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 195 (12) ◽  
pp. 1005-1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Fernbach
Keyword(s):  
Wilms Tumor

Role of the allergist in diagnosis and management of patients with uveitis

JAMA ◽  
1966 ◽  
Vol 195 (3) ◽  
pp. 167-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. E. Van Metre
Keyword(s):  
Diagnosis And Management

The power of norms to sway fused group members

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winnifred R. Louis ◽  
Craig McGarty ◽  
Emma F. Thomas ◽  
Catherine E. Amiot ◽  
Fathali M. Moghaddam
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Anthropology ◽  
Normative Systems ◽  
Violent Extremism ◽  
Identity Fusion ◽  
Group Members

AbstractWhitehouse adapts insights from evolutionary anthropology to interpret extreme self-sacrifice through the concept of identity fusion. The model neglects the role of normative systems in shaping behaviors, especially in relation to violent extremism. In peaceful groups, increasing fusion will actually decrease extremism. Groups collectively appraise threats and opportunities, actively debate action options, and rarely choose violence toward self or others.

Elaborating the role of reflection and individual differences in the study of folk-economic beliefs

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
History Of ◽  
Economic Beliefs

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document