scholarly journals GEOESTATÍSTICA APLICADA NA ESTIMATIVA DE CHUVAS MÁXIMAS DIÁRIAS NO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 675
Author(s):  
Rafael Alvarenga Almeida ◽  
Gilberto Coelho ◽  
Isabela Alvarenga Almeida ◽  
Jéfferson De Oliveira Costa
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Semivariogram Model ◽  
Return Times ◽  
Generalized Distribution

O objetivo desse trabalho foi determinar os parâmetros α e β espacializados e, assim, possibilitar a estimativa de chuvas intensas em todo o estado de Minas Gerais com uma determinada probabilidade, e também para tempos de retorno diferentes dos tradicionais. A área de estudo considerada foi o Estado de Minas Gerais, foram utilizados dados de 96 estações pluviométricas presentes na região e aplicados testes de aderência da distribuição generalizada de valores extremos (GEV) e de tendência. Os resultados da avaliação da dependência espacial dos parâmetros α e β e seus respectivos intervalos de confiança, demonstram que o modelo de semivariograma exponencial foi o mais adequado para descrever a dependência espacial dos parâmetros da distribuição GEV, podendo ser aplicados os valores de precipitação máxima diária no Estado de Minas Gerais. Concluiu-se que os mapas gerados podem ser utilizados para determinação dos parâmetros α e β em qualquer localidade de Minas Gerais e, assim, a precipitação máxima diária pode ser obtida para quaisquer tempos de retorno desde que os intervalos de confiança de α e β sejam respeitados.Palavras-chave: eventos extremos, precipitação máxima, probabilidade. GEOSTATISTICS APPLIED IN THE ESTIMATION OF DAILY MAXIMUM RAINS IN THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS ABSTRACT:The objective of this work is to determine the parameters α and β estimates of rainfall in the entire state of Minas Gerais with a certain probability, as well as our traditional return times. A study area of the State of Minas Gerais, with rainfall data of 96 rainfall stations present in the region and tested for generalized distribution of extreme values (GEV)adherence and trend. The results of the spatial dependence evaluation of the parameters and their confidence parameters demonstrate that the exponential semivariogram model was the most adequate to describe a spatial dependence of the parameters of the GEV distribution, being able to be applied to values of daily maximum non-state precipitation Minas Gerais. It was concluded that the generated maps can be used for the determination of the parameters and in any locality of Minas Gerais and, thus, a maximum daily precipitation, can be obtained by times of return since the confidence intervals of α and β are respected.Keywords: extreme events, maximum precipitation, probability.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiano Bolpato Loures ◽  
Alfredo Chaoubah ◽  
Valdeci Manoel de Oliveira ◽  
Alessandra Maciel Almeida ◽  
Estela Márcia de Saraiva Campos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Surgical Treatment ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Early Surgery ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Surgery Group

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

scholarly journals Spatial distribution of coffee crop productivity in Minas Gerais over time

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Renan Serenini ◽  
Patrícia de Siqueira Ramos ◽  
Lincoln Frias
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
High Productivity ◽  
Over Time

Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and the state of Minas Gerais is responsible for half of the Brazilian production. However, productivity is unevenly distributed throughout the state. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution of coffee productivity in Minas Gerais from 2002 to 2017, a valuable information to identify regions where coffee production may be more promising in the future. This paper investigates the existence of spatial dependence of productivity between regions (using Moran's I), its dynamics throughout the period and the presence of clusters of high and low productivity (using local Moran's I). The results show that the spatial dependence of productivity was stronger from 2002 to 2009 than between 2010 and 2017. Some regions with small coffee areas but high productivity have stopped producing the crop whereas some of those with large areas but low productivity increased their productivity levels. Therefore, there is a tendency of homogenization of productivity in Minas Gerais, with values close to 30 bags per hectare.

Effect of incarceration on criminality in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laís de Sousa Abreu Soares ◽  
Filipe Mendes Dalboni ◽  
Evandro Camargos Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State

scholarly journals Steady State Response of Linear Time Invariant Systems Modeledby Multibond Graphs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1717
Author(s):  
Gilberto Gonzalez Avalos ◽  
Noe Barrera Gallegos ◽  
Gerardo Ayala-Jaimes ◽  
Aaron Padilla Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Direct Determination ◽  
The State ◽  
Steady State Response ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Linear Time Invariant ◽  
State Response ◽  
Time Invariant

The direct determination of the steady state response for linear time invariant (LTI) systems modeled by multibond graphs is presented. Firstly, a multiport junction structure of a multibond graph in an integral causality assignment (MBGI) to get the state space of the system is introduced. By assigning a derivative causality to the multiport storage elements, the multibond graph in a derivative causality (MBGD) is proposed. Based on this MBGD, a theorem to obtain the steady state response is presented. Two case studies to get the steady state of the state variables are applied. Both cases are modeled by multibond graphs, and the symbolic determination of the steady state is obtained. The simulation results using the 20-SIM software are numerically verified.

scholarly journals Low frequency of LRV1 in Leishmania braziliensis strains isolated from typical and atypical lesions in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

2016 ◽  
Vol 210 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 50-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego H. Macedo ◽  
Armando Menezes-Neto ◽  
Jeronimo M. Rugani ◽  
Ana C. Rocha ◽  
Soraia O. Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Frequency ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Leishmania Braziliensis

THE USE OF SOAPSTONE IN MASTERPIECES IN THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

1992 ◽  
Vol 37 (sup2) ◽  
pp. 13-13
Author(s):  
Alexandre Soares Leal ◽  
Allan Sostenis Hanke
Keyword(s):  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State
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