scholarly journals THE FORECASTING BUDGET REVENUES IN ARDL APPROACH: A CASE OF UZBEKISTAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Fayziev R. A. ◽  
Khudoykulov S. K. ◽  
Rajapov Sh. Z. ◽  
Axmadjonov A. A.
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

This paper contribute to the forecasted total budget revenues in Uzbekistan. It is aim to investigate long run and short run relationship between number of registered company, total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues from 1998 and 2017. More specifically, this dynamic relationship using bounds testing approach to co integration and the ARDL model. The main empirical findings indicate the existence of directional relationship between the number of registered company and forecasted total budget revenues in short run and long run. This mean that increase the number of registered company leads to go up forecasted total budget revenues. However, a unidirectional relationship between the total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues are confirmed in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals Education Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mauritius: An Application of the Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tafirenyika Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Investments In Education

This study examines the relationship between education expenditure and economic growth in Mauritius. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing methodology for the period 1976 to 2016. The study found that education expenditure Granger causes economic growth in Mauritius in the short run. In addition, the study also found that economic growth does not Granger cause education expenditure in Mauritius in the short run. However, in the long-run, the study found that there are long run relationships between education expenditure and economic growth in both equations; and this means that an increase in either of the variables will eventually lead to an increase in the other variable. The study, therefore, found support for the hypothesis that investment in education raises economic growth. This means that Mauritius has the potential to benefit from further investments in education in the future.

scholarly journals Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402093252
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Hengyun Ma ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
Munir Ahmad ◽  
Ousmane Traore
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Passenger Transport ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Tourism is a key source of income and employment today, and different parts of the world are heavily dependent on it. The main purpose of this article was to demonstrate the consequences of long-run and short-run relationship on international tourism in Pakistan and its impact on economic growth by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test was employed to check the stationarity of the variables, while an ARDL bounds testing approach was used to measure the long-run and short-run dynamics linkage among the study variables. The results show that international tourism and expenditures for passenger transport items have a positive impact on economic growth. Similarly, long-run dynamics also revealed that international tourism expenditures for travel items and international tourism expenditures, international tourism receipts for passenger transport items and international tourism receipts for travel items also had a positive impact on the economic growth. The present analysis of the long-run suggested better policies should be implemented to attract more international tourists to the country.

Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Paradigm ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 097189072110037
Author(s):  
Animesh Bhattacharjee ◽  
Joy Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Understanding the effect of domestic macroeconomic forces on equity market is essential since macroeconomic forces have a systematic effect on the equity market returns. The present study uses monthly observations from India for the period from January 2012 to December 2019 to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between the domestic macroeconomic forces and equity market. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and pair-wise granger causality test to attain the objective. The long-run empirical results indicated that the Indian equity market and the domestic macroeconomic forces are cointegrated. The long-run coefficients of foreign exchange rate and money supply are found to be significant. The short-run coefficients suggest that money supply, inflation and foreign exchange rate significantly influence the Indian equity market. The study also observed the presence of feedback mechanism between foreign exchange rate and Indian equity market. The study provides the policy and managerial implications.

scholarly journals Effect of International Remittances on Inflation in Ghana Using the Bounds Testing Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni ◽  
Christopher Quaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
International Remittances ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
Transfer Fees ◽  
The Impact

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This paper empirically examines the effect of international remittances on inflation in Ghana from 1979 to 2013 by incorporating international remittances as an exogenous variable to the standard inflation function. Applying the bounds testing approach, the empirical results indicate that international remittances have a significant effect on inflation in the long-run. However, in the short-run, no significant relationship is evident between these two variables. The study recommends that in order to reduce the effect of international remittances on inflation rate and increase the impact on growth, the government should improve public infrastructure. By this, excessive transfer fees would reduce and these remittances could be channeled into more productive sectors rather than being used mainly for consumption purposes.</span></p>

Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Paradigm ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 097189072098767
Author(s):  
Animesh Bhattacharjee ◽  
Joy Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Understanding the effect of domestic macroeconomic forces on equity market is essential since macroeconomic forces have a systematic effect on the equity market returns. The present study uses monthly observations from India for the period from January 2012 to December 2019 to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between the domestic macroeconomic forces and equity market. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and pair-wise granger causality test to attain the objective. The long-run empirical results indicated that the Indian equity market and the domestic macroeconomic forces are cointegrated. The long-run coefficients of foreign exchange rate and money supply are found to be significant. The short-run coefficients suggest that money supply, inflation and foreign exchange rate significantly influence the Indian equity market. The study also observed the presence of feedback mechanism between foreign exchange rate and Indian equity market. The study provides the policy and managerial implications.

scholarly journals Inflation Dynamics And Economic Growth In Tanzania: A Multivariate Time Series Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Critical Question ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This study examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between inflation, investment and economic growth in Tanzania. In the main, the study incorporates investment in a bivariate setting between inflation and economic growth hence, creating a trivariate model. The study attempts to answer one critical question: Does inflation have any significant influence on economic growth and investment in Tanzania? Using the ARDL-bounds testing approach, the study finds a unidirectional causal flow from inflation to economic growth without any feedback response. The study also finds that investment in Tanzania unambiguously causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the long run or in the short run.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwurah, Josephine Chikwue
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact

Aims: This study examined the place of exchange rate in determining foreign direct investment inflow into the Nigerian economy using time series data from 1980 to 2017. Study Design:  Historical research design method was adopted for the study, it uses secondary sources and a variety of primary documentary evidence. Place and Duration of Study: Department of economics, faculty of social sciences, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, between September 2010 and May 2018. Methodology: The method adopted for this study was the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation approach and error correction mechanism within the framework of dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation. The analysis began with a verification of the unit root properties of the variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) unit root procedures were employed and both tests indicate that the variables were integrated of either order I(0) or order I(1). This warranted the use of Bounds testing approach in determining the cointegration among the variables in the various equations in the selected countries. Analysis using the Bounds testing approach to cointegration confirmed the existence of long run relation among the variables of the models. In determining the impact of exchange rate on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria, we estimated an ARDL model. Results: The results indicate that exchange rate affects FDI in both the long and short run. The result also reveals that the impact of exchange rate on FDI in the short run continuous up to three periods after the initial disturbance. Conclusion: This study concluded that exchange rate appreciation will lead to increases in foreign direct investment inflow. The study therefore recommended, amongst others, that government should apply exchange rate regime that is competitive at the international market so as to attract more FDI inflow to the Nigeria economy.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

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