scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

Benefits of international portfolio diversification

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Jamaledin Mohseni Zonouzi ◽  
Gholamreza Mansourfar ◽  
Fateme Bagherzadeh Azar
Keyword(s):  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
International Portfolio ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate opportunities of the short- and long-run international portfolio diversification (IPD) benefits by investing in the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. Over the past decades, IPD has been the integral feature of global capital markets. Several potential benefits like increasing returns and/or reducing risk have made investors to internationalize their portfolios. Solnik’s theory (1974) approved that gains can be achieved through IPD if returns in the different markets are not perfectly correlated. This may attribute to low correlations of equity returns among different economies. In this regards, there would be a large potential of diversification benefits for investors that diversify into new emerging group of economies such as equity markets of the main oil-producing countries. These markets are often segmented and they may ensure a superior return rate for a given risk level. Design/methodology/approach – In most of the previous studies, Pearson’s correlation test is used to analyze the short-run relationship of market prices. However, recent empirical studies indicate that correlations between equity returns vary over the time. To examine the time-varying conditional correlation, this paper used the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model to investigate opportunities of the short-run IPD benefits. In addition, for the long-run linkage analysis, the autoregressive distributed lag (ADRL) approach introduced by Pesaran et al. (2001) is applied. Findings – It is found that, the market returns of the sampled countries are not definitely correlated in the short- and long-term. So, international portfolio investors may get the short- and long-term diversification benefits by diversifying their portfolios among the Middle Eastern equity markets, namely, Iran, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Originality/value – This paper departs from earlier studies by focusing on the dynamic characteristics of correlation. Two main issues are pursued in this paper. First, instead of modeling the correlation by methods like Pearson correlation coefficient that consider the constant-correlation assumption, this paper directly uses the DCC model. Second, to empirically estimate the long-run relationship among stock markets in the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, the ARDL approach is utilized. The ARDL approach is more robust and performs well for small sample sizes than other co-integration techniques.

How responsive are Indonesia's bilateral inpayments and outpayments to real depreciation of Rupiah?

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee ◽  
Hanafiah Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Almost All

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of Indonesia's inpayments and outpayments to currency depreciation on a bilateral basis.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used is based on the bounds testing approach.FindingsIt is found that while real depreciation of Rupiah has short‐run effects in a majority of the cases, these effects last into the long‐term in almost 50 percent of the cases. Surprisingly, almost all of the affected partners in the long run are found to be the Asian countries.Originality/valueThe paper is very original in that no one has looked at this issue before.

Research publications and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 662-675
Author(s):  
Nicholas M Odhiambo ◽  
Lydia Ntenga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Publications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between research publications and economic growth – using time-series data from South Africa. The paper attempts to answer two critical questions: is there a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa? Do research publications from South African researchers Granger-cause economic growth? Design/methodology/approach – Unlike some of the previous studies, the current paper uses a trivariate ECM-based Granger-causality model to examine this linkage. Specifically, the study incorporates education as an intermittent variable between research and economic growth. In addition, the paper uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, which has numerous advantages, especially when the sample size is small. Findings – The results of this study show that there is a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa. The results also show that there is a distinct causal flow from research publications to economic growth in South Africa. This applies both in the short-run and in the long-run. Other results also show that: there is a short-run bidirectional causality between research publications and education; and there is a short-run bi-directional causality between education and economic growth, but a long-run unidirectional causal flow from education to economic growth. Practical implications – The findings of this paper underscore the crucial role that research plays in economic growth and development. Overall, the findings of this study show that research in South Africa is pro-growth. This implies that the recent significant increase in government expenditure on research and innovation, which is aimed at increasing the country’s scientific research outputs, is likely to pay off. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between research outputs and economic growth in South Africa – using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach within a trivariate setting.

scholarly journals Modelling Respon Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Pembiayaan Pada Bank Syariah Di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heri Sudarsono
Keyword(s):  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Financial Report ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Short Run

<p align="center"><strong> </strong></p><p><em>This research is meant to analyze the factors affecting the amount of financing provided by Islamic banking in Indonesia. The data which is used is taken from the financial report of the Shari’a Bank during the 2011-2015 periods by using montly financial statement This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the long-term effect and response to shock that occur in the studied variables. The result shows that in the long run, the percentage of third party funds (DPK), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), financial deposit ratio (FDR), percentage profit and loss sharing (TBH), give a positive and significant effect on the financing, while BOPO  has negative and significant effect.  Return on asset (ROA) and non perfroming finance (NPF) have no significant effect on the financing. In short run, financing and BOPO give a positive and siqnificant effect on teh financing, then DPK, CAR, FDR, TBH have no sinificant effect on the financing. Therfore, shocks that occur in the financing, ROA, CAR, FDR dan NPF positively responded by financing and will be stable in the long term. While the shocks that occur in the percentage of profit and loss sharing, third party funds, and BOPO responded negatively by financing and will be stable in the long term. </em></p>

scholarly journals An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽  
◽  
Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Predictive Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

scholarly journals Crop Production, Livestock Production and Economic Growth in Botswana (1990-2017): An Application of ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1500-1508
Author(s):  
Mufaro Andrew Matandare ◽  
Patricia Masego Makepe ◽  
Lekgatlhamang Setlhare ◽  
Jonah Bajaki Tlhalefang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach

There are few studies in Botswana which have examined the relationship between agriculture and economic growth. The uniqueness of this study is grounded in investigating disintegrated agriculture components into crop production and livestock production and investigating their nexus with economic growth. This study estimated the short and long term effects between crop production, livestock production and economic growth in Botswana for the period 1990 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to investigate the stated relationship. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between crop production, livestock production and economic growth. Results indicated that livestock production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. On the other hand crop production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth only in the long run. Efforts towards supporting agricultural sector growth should be emphasized to promote agricultural sector productivity in a bid to forge a move away from dependence on imports of food in Botswana. To enhance economic growth, in both the short run and long run, the government of Botswana and all relevant stakeholders should invest in and promote livestock production. In the long term, policies that foster crop production are essential for economic growth.

Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-44
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis study aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate risk and export at commodity level for the Indian case.Design/methodology/approachThe monthly panel data used for analysis are at a disaggregated level, which cover around 100 products, encompassing all merchandize sectors for the period spanning from 2012:12 to 2017:11. To measure the exchange rate volatility, the authors use real as well as nominal exchange rate concepts and predict the volatility of exchange rate using the autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic-based model. They use pooled mean group, mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimator that is suitable for the objectives and data frequency.FindingsThe empirical analysis indicates both short- and long-term negative effects of exchange rate variations on exporting. Specifically, in the long run, real exchange rate as well as nominal exchange rate volatility has significant effects on export performance, yet, the effects of uncertainty of nominal exchange rate is much severe and intense. In the short run, it is the nominal exchange rate uncertainty that hurts exports from India. Nevertheless, the short-run effect is much lesser than the long-run, supporting the argument that the short-term exchange rate risk can be hedged, at least partially, through financial instruments; however, uncertainty of the long-term horizon cannot be hedged easily and cost-effectively.Practical implicationsReducing uncertainty and attaining stability in exchange rate and price level should be an important policy objective in developing countries such as India to achieve higher export growth, both in the short and long run.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies, this paper tests the relationship using micro-level data and uses advanced econometric techniques that are likely to provide more precise information regarding the association between exchange rate volatility and trade flows.

On the link between policy uncertainty and housing permits: asymmetric evidence from state-level data in the USA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahaman-Oskooee ◽  
Hesam Ghodsi ◽  
Muris Hadzic
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
State Level ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the symmetric and asymmetric impact of a measure of policy uncertainty on house permits issued in each state of the USA. Design/methodology/approach To assess the symmetric effects, the authors use Pesaran et al.’s (2001) linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to error-correction modeling. To assess the asymmetric effects, they rely upon Shin et al.’s (2014) nonlinear ARDL approach to error-correction modeling. Both approaches have the advantage of producing short-run and long-run effects in one step. Findings The authors find short-run symmetric effects of policy uncertainty on house permits issued in 22 states that lasted into the long run in three states only. However, the numbers were much higher when they estimated the possibility of asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty. Indeed, they found short-run asymmetric effects in 38 states and long-run asymmetric effects in 18 states. Originality/value Some previous studies assessed the effects of a measure of policy uncertainty on house prices. In this paper, the authors extend the same analysis to the supply side of the housing market by assessing the effects of policy uncertainty on house permits in each state of the USA.

Volatility in frontier markets: a Multivariate GARCH analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-312
Author(s):  
Neha Seth ◽  
Monica Singhania
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the existence of volatility spillover effect in frontier markets. This study also examines whether any linkages exist among these markets or not. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data of regional frontier markets, from 2009 to 2016, are analyzed using Multivariate GARCH (BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC)) models. Findings The result of cointegration test shows that the sample frontier markets are not linked in long run, and Granger causality test reveals that the markets under consideration do not cause each other even in the short run. BEKK test says that the effect of the arrival of shock from the own market does not last for longer, whereas shock from other markets lasts with the stronger persistence, and according to DCC test, the volatility spillover exists for all the markets. Practical implications The results of present study suggest that the frontier markets are not cointegrated in the long run as well as in the short run, which opens the doors for long-term investments in these markets in future, which may lead to decent returns. Long-term investors may draw the benefits from including the financial assets in their portfolios from these non-integrated frontier markets; nevertheless, they have to consider and implement diversification and hedging strategies during the period of financial turmoil, so as to protect themselves against economic and financial distress. Originality/value Significant work has been done on developed, developing and emerging markets but frontier markets are not explored much so far. This paper is an attempt to see the status of frontier stock markets as potential financial markets for diversification benefits.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of the Non-performing Placements and Off-balance Sheet Liabilities of Croatian Banks

Organizacija ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Benazić ◽  
Dajana Radin
Keyword(s):  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Quantitative Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

Abstract Background and Purpose: The non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities are often considered key factors that lead to banking crises. Economic and financial crises increase the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities which can cause significant losses for banks. Effective management and regulatory/ supervisory institutions such central banks should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically determine the existence and the quantitative impact of main Croatian macroeconomic variables on the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks in the long and short-run. Methodology: For this purpose the bounds testing (ARDL) approach for cointegration is applied. The ARDL model is performed in two steps. The first step starts with conducting the bounds test for cointegration. In the second step, when cointegration is found, the long-run relationship and the associated error correction model are estimated. Results: The results indicate the existence of stable cointegration relationship between the variables i.e. in the longrun, an increase in real GDP reduces the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks wherein an increase in prices, unemployment, interest rate and the depreciation of the Croatian kuna exchange rate increases their level. On the other hand, in the short-run the results are rather mixed. Conclusion: To avoid crises, effective bank management and regulatory/supervisory institutions should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. This is a necessary precondition for implementation of an adequate prudential and monetary policy measures for reducing the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities.

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