scholarly journals Evaluation of future trends of characteristics change of hydrological regime of rivers of the Southern Buh basin in the winter period

2017 ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
E. R. Rachmatullina ◽  
V. V. Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Thermal Regimes ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Surface Air Layer

Introduction. Climate changes occurring in recent decades determine the relevance of the problem of forecasting such changes in future both globally and regionally. After all, knowledge of climate's behavior in future is very important when carrying out an analysis of trends of  hydrological characteristics change. Significant increase of the global surface air temperature observed since the end of the 20th century is mainly caused by increase of concentration of greenhouse gases generated as a result of industrial activity. Thus, climate changes could not but affect the continental water resources and in particular the processes taking place in rivers. Purpose. Assessment of change of surface air layer during the winter period within the South-ern Buh Basin and assessment of change of the hydrological regime of the basin's rivers following the changes of air temperature. Methods of research. This study is based on the data for the winter period obtained from 24 hydrological station and 15 meteorological stations within the Southern Buh River Basin. With assistance of scientists of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute and using the regional climate model REMO for A1B scenario forecast values of air temperature were calculated. Results of research. The main regularities of studied characteristics change for the period of 2031-2050 were determined on the basis of prepared calculation dependences of the characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the studied basin's rivers and obtained forecast values of air temperature. According to the climatologists' calculations there is a tendency of air temperature increase during the forecast period, and, respectively, increase of water temperature and decrease of ice period duration of the rivers within the Southern Buh Basin. Summary (conclusions and author's recommendations). The results of the carried out research indicate the fact that the trend of increase of surface air layer temperature and change of main characteristics of ice and thermal regimes of the basin's rivers formed at the end of 20th - the beginning of the 21th century will develop in future.

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

scholarly journals Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7251-7267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
T. Markkanen ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
H. M. Henttonen ◽  
J.-P. Pietikäinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Melting Period

Abstract. Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Naturally treeless or sparsely treed peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on regional climate in Finland. Two sets of 18-year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish national forest inventories. In the most intensive peatland forestation area, located in the middle west of Finland, the results show a warming in April of up to 0.43 K in monthly-averaged daily mean 2 m air temperature, whereas a slight cooling from May to October of less than 0.1 K in general is found. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow-melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased surface albedo in the snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate. The results from this study can be further integrally analysed with biogeochemical effects of peatland forestation to provide background information for adapting future forest management to mitigate climate warming effects. Moreover, they provide insights about the impacts of projected forestation of tundra at high latitudes due to climate change.

scholarly journals Panama’s Current Climate Replicability in a Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model Nested in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1543
Author(s):  
Reinhardt Pinzón ◽  
Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Current Climate

To simulate the current climate, a 20-year integration of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with grid spacing of 5 and 2 km (NHRCM05 and NHRCM02, respectively) was nested within the AGCM. The three models did a similarly good job of simulating surface air temperature, and the spatial horizontal resolution did not affect these statistics. NHRCM02 did a good job of reproducing seasonal variations in surface air temperature. NHRCM05 overestimated annual mean precipitation in the western part of Panama and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. NHRCM05 is responsible for this overestimation because it is not seen in MRI-AGCM. NHRCM02 simulated annual mean precipitation better than NHRCM05, probably due to a convection-permitting model without a convection scheme, such as the Kain and Fritsch scheme. Therefore, the finer horizontal resolution of NHRCM02 did a better job of replicating the current climatological mean geographical distributions and seasonal changes of surface air temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Simulations of U.S. Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature during 1982–2002: Interannual Variation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinhong Zhu ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Interannual Variations

Abstract The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)-based regional climate model (CMM5) capability in simulating the interannual variations of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature during 1982–2002 is evaluated with a continuous baseline integration driven by the NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Reanalysis (R-2). It is demonstrated that the CMM5 has a pronounced downscaling skill for precipitation and temperature interannual variations. The EOF and correlation analyses illustrate that, for both quantities, the CMM5 captures the spatial pattern, temporal evolution, and circulation teleconnections much better than the R-2. In particular, the CMM5 more realistically simulates the precipitation pattern centered in the Northwest, where the representation of the orographic enhancement by the forced uplifting during winter (rainy season) is greatly improved over the R-2. The downscaling skill, however, is sensitive to the cumulus parameterization. This sensitivity is studied by comparing the baseline with a branch summer integration replacing the Grell with the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme in the CMM5. The dominant EOF mode of the U.S. summer precipitation interannual variation, identified with the out-of-phase relationship between the Midwest and Southeast in observations, is reproduced more accurately by the Grell than the Kain–Fritsch scheme, which largely underestimates the variation in the Midwest. This pattern is associated with east–west movement of the Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ): a more western position corresponds to a stronger southerly flow bringing more moisture and heavier rainfall in the Midwest and less in the Southeast. The second EOF pattern, which describes the consistent variation over the southern part of the Midwest and the South in observations, is captured better by the Kain–Fritsch scheme than the Grell, whose pattern systematically shifts southward.

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Phan Van ◽  
Hiep Van Nguyen ◽  
Long Trinh Tuan ◽  
Trung Nguyen Quang ◽  
Thanh Ngo-Duc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Model Bias ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Model Predictions

To investigate the ability of dynamical seasonal climate predictions for Vietnam, the RegCM4.2 is employed to perform seasonal prediction of 2 m mean (T2m), maximum (Tx), and minimum (Tn) air temperature for the period from January 2012 to November 2013 by downscaling the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) data. For model bias correction, the model and observed climatology is constructed using the CFS reanalysis and observed temperatures over Vietnam for the period 1980–2010, respectively. The RegCM4.2 forecast is run four times per month from the current month up to the next six months. A model ensemble prediction initialized from the current month is computed from the mean of the four runs within the month. The results showed that, without any bias correction (CTL), the RegCM4.2 forecast has very little or no skill in both tercile and value predictions. With bias correction (BAS), model predictions show improved skill. The experiment in which the results from the BAS experiment are further successively adjusted (SUC) with model bias at one-month lead time of the previous run showed further improvement compared to CTL and BAS. Skill scores of the tercile probability forecasts were found to exceed 0.3 for most of the target months.

scholarly journals Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 11249-11291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
T. Markkanen ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
H. M. Henttonen ◽  
J.-P. Pietikäinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Snow Melting ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Melting Period ◽  
Middle West

Abstract. Land cover changes can impact the climate by influencing the surface energy and water balance. Unproductive peatlands were extensively drained to stimulate forest growth in Finland over the second half of 20th century. The aim of this study is to investigate the biogeophysical effects of peatland forestation on climate change in Finland. Two sets of 18 year climate simulations were done with the regional climate model REMO by using land cover data based on pre-drainage (1920s) and post-drainage (2000s) Finnish National Forest Inventories. The results show that in the most intensive peatland forestation area located in the middle west of Finland, the differences in monthly averaged daily mean two-metre air temperature show a spring warming of up to 0.43 K in April, whereas a slight cooling of less than 0.1 K in general is found from May till October. Consequently, snow clearance days over that area are advanced up to 5 days in the mean of 15 years. No clear signal is found for precipitation. Through analysing the simulated temperature and energy balance terms, as well as snow depth over five selected subregions, a positive feedback induced by peatland forestation is found between decreased surface albedo and increased surface air temperature in the snow melting period. Our modelled results show good qualitative agreements with the observational data. In general, decreased albedo in snow-melting period and increased evapotranspiration in the growing period are the most important biogeophysical aspects induced by peatland forestation that cause changes in climate.

scholarly journals Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1143-1152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Giot ◽  
Piet Termonia ◽  
Daan Degrauwe ◽  
Rozemien De Troch ◽  
Steven Caluwaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Jackknife Procedure

Abstract. Using the regional climate model ALARO-0, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and Ghent University have performed two simulations of the past observed climate within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The ERA-Interim reanalysis was used to drive the model for the period 1979–2010 on the EURO-CORDEX domain with two horizontal resolutions, 0.11 and 0.44°. ALARO-0 is characterised by the new microphysics scheme 3MT, which allows for a better representation of convective precipitation. In Kotlarski et al. (2014) several metrics assessing the performance in representing seasonal mean near-surface air temperature and precipitation are defined and the corresponding scores are calculated for an ensemble of models for different regions and seasons for the period 1989–2008. Of special interest within this ensemble is the ARPEGE model by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), which shares a large amount of core code with ALARO-0. Results show that ALARO-0 is capable of representing the European climate in an acceptable way as most of the ALARO-0 scores lie within the existing ensemble. However, for near-surface air temperature, some large biases, which are often also found in the ARPEGE results, persist. For precipitation, on the other hand, the ALARO-0 model produces some of the best scores within the ensemble and no clear resemblance to ARPEGE is found, which is attributed to the inclusion of 3MT. Additionally, a jackknife procedure is applied to the ALARO-0 results in order to test whether the scores are robust, meaning independent of the period used to calculate them. Periods of 20 years are sampled from the 32-year simulation and used to construct the 95 % confidence interval for each score. For most scores, these intervals are very small compared to the total ensemble spread, implying that model differences in the scores are significant.

scholarly journals Geoengineering by stratospheric SO<sub>2</sub> injection: results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 5999-6006 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Jones ◽  
J. Haywood ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
B. Kravitz ◽  
A. Robock
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Goddard Institute ◽  
Continuous Injection ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. We examine the response of the Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM2-AO climate model to simulated geoengineering by continuous injection of SO2 into the lower stratosphere, and compare the results with those from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Despite the differences between the models, we find a broadly similar geographic distribution of the response to geoengineering in both models in terms of near-surface air temperature and mean June–August precipitation. The simulations also suggest that significant changes in regional climate would be experienced even if geoengineering was successful in maintaining global-mean temperature near current values, and both models indicate rapid warming if geoengineering is not sustained.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document