scholarly journals Penerapan Generalized Regression Neural Networks untuk Memprediksi Produksi Padi Terhadap Perubahan Iklim

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Alkaff ◽  
Yuslena Sari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Networks ◽  
Data Output ◽  
Generalized Regression

Padi sebagai bahan makanan pokok utama bagi masyarakat Indonesia merupakan tanaman pangan yang rentan terhadap perubahan iklim. Pendataan dan perhitungan ramalan hasil produksi padi sangat diperlukan untuk mendukung kebijakan yang berkaitan dengan ketahanan pangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan peramalan terhadap produksi padi di Kabupaten Barito Kuala sebagai kabupaten penghasil padi terbesar di Kalimantan Selatan dengan menggunakan data iklim sebagai input. Data iklim yang digunakan berasal dari Stasiun Meteorologi Syamsudin Noor, sedangkan sebagai data output adalah data produksi padi dari Badan Pusat Statistika (BPS) Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. Metode yang digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan produksi padi adalah Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN). Dari hasil pengujian didapatkan nilai Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 0,296 dengan menggunakan parameter smoothness bernilai 1.Kata kunci: padi, iklim, Barito Kuala, GRNN, RMSE

scholarly journals Subset selection of markers for the genome-enabled prediction of genetic values using radial basis function neural networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e46307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabela de Castro Sant'Anna ◽  
Gabi Nunes Silva ◽  
Moysés Nascimento ◽  
Cosme Damião Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Radial Basis Function ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Basis Function ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Subset Selection ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Selection Of

This paper aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of subset selection of markers for genome-enabled prediction of genetic values using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). To this end, an F1 population derived from the hybridization of divergent parents with 500 individuals genotyped with 1000 SNP-type markers was simulated. Phenotypic traits were determined by adopting three different gene action models – additive, additive-dominant, and epistatic, representing two dominance situations: partial and complete with quantitative traits having a heritability (h2) of 30 and 60%; traits were controlled by 50 loci, considering two alleles per locus. Twelve different scenarios were represented in the simulation. The stepwise regression was used before the prediction methods. The reliability and the root mean square error were used for estimation using a fivefold cross-validation scheme. Overall, dimensionality reduction improved the reliability values for all scenarios, specifically with h2 =30 the reliability value from 0.03 to 0.59 using RBFNN and from 0.10 to 0.57 with RR-BLUP in the scenario with additive effects. In the additive dominant scenario, the reliability values changed from 0.12 to 0.59 using RBFNN and from 0.12 to 0.58 with RR-BLUP, and in the epistasis scenarios, the reliability values changed from 0.07 to 0.50 using RBFNN and from 0.06 to 0.47 with RR-BLUP. The results showed that the use of stepwise regression before the use of these techniques led to an improvement in the accuracy of prediction of the genetic value and, mainly, to a large reduction of the root mean square error in addition to facilitating processing and analysis time due to a reduction in dimensionality.

scholarly journals MODEL SIMULASI PRAKIRAAN CH BULANAN PADA WILAYAH RIAU DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN INPUT DATA SOI, SST, NINO 3.4, DAN IOD

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Aristya Ardhitama ◽  
Rias Sholihah
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Mean Square

INTISARI  Saat ini, kondisi cuaca di Pekanbaru dewasa ini begitu cepat perubahannya sehingga sulit diprediksi. Fenomena ini menuntut  prakiraan untuk meningkatkan kualitas hasil prakiraan sehingga lebih cepat, tepat, dan akurat untuk hasil yang diinginkan tersebut. Simulasi prakiraan jumlah curah hujan dengan menggunakan input data prediktor SOI, SST, Nino 3.4 dan IOD dengan parameter cuaca di Kota Pekanbaru telah  dilakukan menggunakan model persamaan regresi linear berganda. Prediktor tersebut digunakan untuk memprediksi curah hujan (CH) tahun 2011 dan 2012.Selain itu berfungsi untuk mengecek kebenaran hasil prakiraan jumlah curah hujan dengan model persamaan regresi linear berganda menggunakan rumus Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) dan Standar Deviasi (SD).Serta kajian penelitian ini berfungsi untuk membuktikan faktor prediktor (SOI, SST, Nina 3.4 dan IOD) yang paling mempengaruhi kondisi curah hujan di Pekanbaru.Data yang digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah data curah hujan sebaran normal dari tahun 1981-2010 pada stasiun wilayah Pekanbaru-Provinsi Riau. Data jumlah curah hujan tahun 2011 dan 2012 hasil observasi dianggap sebagai pembanding untuk verifikasi dan validasi nilai curah hujan (CH) hasil model output simulasi.Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa data dari SOI, SST, Nino 3.4 dan IOD memiliki pengaruh terhadap curah hujan di wilayah Pekanbaru Provinsi Riau.Kondisi cuaca terutama curah hujan untuk wilayah Pekanbaru dipengaruhi oleh factor global, regional dan lokal.Dari hasil penelitian terlihat hubungan yang memiliki tingkat korelasi yang tinggi terhadap curah hujan (CH) adalah prediktor SOI.Selain itu, dengan menggunakan RMSE membuktikan bahwa nilai kebenaran pada tahun 2011 lebih baik dibandingkan pada tahun 2012.  

scholarly journals MODEL ESTIMASI DATA INTENSITAS RADIASI MATAHARI UNTUK WILAYAH BANTEN

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-61
Author(s):  
Munawar Munawar ◽  
Adi Mulsandi ◽  
Anistia Malinda Hidayat
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Data intensitas radiasi matahari (Rs, MJ/m2/day) memiliki peran yang sangat penting dalam pemodelan cuaca dan iklim guna mengkuantifikasi panas yang dipertukarkan antara permukaan dan atmosfer. Namun, keterbatasan jumlah titik pengamatan intensitas radiasi matahari menjadikan pemodelan sebagai alternatif solusi yang relatif mudah dan murah untuk pengambilan data intensitas radiasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi performa model dalam mengestimasi nilai intensitas radiasi matahari di wilayah penelitian menggunakan dua pendekatan model yang berbeda, yaitu model empiris oleh Keiser, Arkansas (AR) dan model deterministik. Tiga variabel utama cuaca yang digunakan sebagai input data model adalah curah hujan (mm), suhu maksimum (°C), dan suhu minimum (°C). Kedua model tersebut dipilih karena dapat diterapkan dengan hanya melibatkan variabel utama atmosfer yang tersedia dalam waktu yang panjang di lokasi penelitian. Hasil prediksi yang dilakukan dengan model kemudian dibandingkan dengan data reanalisis National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) pada titik koordinat wilayah Stasiun Klimatologi Pondok Betung. Hasilnya menunjukkan performa model empirik lebih baik dalam menggambarkan variasi temporal dan prediksi variabel intensitas matahari dibandingkan model deterministik. Hal tersebut ditunjukkan dengan nilai korelasi yang cukup baik, yakni mencapai 0,72 (korelasi kuat) dan nilai Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 2,0. Atas dasar hasil pemodelan yang cukup representatif di lokasi penelitian, analisis secara spasial kemudian diterapkan untuk skala wilayah yang lebih luas, yaitu Provinsi Banten. Berdasarkan tinjauan secara spasial di wilayah kajian, model empirik memiliki performa yang bervariasi di wilayah Provinsi Banten. Hasil prediksi intensitas radiasi matahari di wilayah bagian barat memiliki performa yang lebih baik dibandingkan wilayah bagian timur.  

scholarly journals Hydrochars as Emerging Biofuels: Recent Advances and Application of Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Heating Values

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4572
Author(s):  
Ioannis O. Vardiambasis ◽  
Theodoros N. Kapetanakis ◽  
Christos D. Nikolopoulos ◽  
Trinh Kieu Trang ◽  
Toshiki Tsubota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Sewage Sludge ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Food Waste ◽  
Hydrothermal Carbonization ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Artificial Neural

In this study, the growing scientific field of alternative biofuels was examined, with respect to hydrochars produced from renewable biomasses. Hydrochars are the solid products of hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) and their properties depend on the initial biomass and the temperature and duration of treatment. The basic (Scopus) and advanced (Citespace) analysis of literature showed that this is a dynamic research area, with several sub-fields of intense activity. The focus of researchers on sewage sludge and food waste as hydrochar precursors was highlighted and reviewed. It was established that hydrochars have improved behavior as fuels compared to these feedstocks. Food waste can be particularly useful in co-hydrothermal carbonization with ash-rich materials. In the case of sewage sludge, simultaneous P recovery from the HTC wastewater may add more value to the process. For both feedstocks, results from large-scale HTC are practically non-existent. Following the review, related data from the years 2014–2020 were retrieved and fitted into four different artificial neural networks (ANNs). Based on the elemental content, HTC temperature and time (as inputs), the higher heating values (HHVs) and yields (as outputs) could be successfully predicted, regardless of original biomass used for hydrochar production. ANN3 (based on C, O, H content, and HTC temperature) showed the optimum HHV predicting performance (R2 0.917, root mean square error 1.124), however, hydrochars’ HHVs could also be satisfactorily predicted by the C content alone (ANN1, R2 0.897, root mean square error 1.289).

scholarly journals Comparison of neural networks and genetic algorithms to determine missing precipitation data (Case study: the city of Sari)

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (29) ◽  
pp. 114-128
Author(s):  
Ali Mahdavi ◽  
Mohsen Najarchi ◽  
Emadoddin Hazaveie ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Mirhosayni Hazave ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Mahdai Najafizadeh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The City

Neural networks and genetic programming in the investigation of new methods for predicting rainfall in the catchment area of the city of Sari. Various methods are used for prediction, such as the time series model, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy Nero, and genetic programming. Results based on statistical indicators of root mean square error and correlation coefficient were studied. The results of the optimal model of genetic programming were compared, the correlation coefficients and the root mean square error 0.973 and 0.034 respectively for training, and 0.964 and 0.057 respectively for the optimal neural network model. Genetic programming has been more accurate than artificial neural networks and is recommended as a good way to accurately predict.

A Study on Time Series Forecasting using Hybridization of Time Series Models and Neural Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 827-832
Author(s):  
Iflah Aijaz ◽  
Parul Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square

Introduction: Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are leading linear and non-linear models in Machine learning respectively for time series forecasting. Objective: This survey paper presents a review of recent advances in the area of Machine Learning techniques and artificial intelligence used for forecasting different events. Methods: This paper presents an extensive survey of work done in the field of Machine Learning where hybrid models for are compared to the basic models for forecasting on the basis of error parameters like Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). Results: Table 1 summarizes important papers discussed in this paper on the basis of some parameters which explain the efficiency of hybrid models or when the model is used in isolation. Conclusion: The hybrid model has realized accurate results as compared when the models were used in isolation yet some research papers argue that hybrids cannot always outperform individual models.

Prediction of Significant Wave Height Using Neural Network in the Java Sea (North of Surabaya)

2017 ◽  
Vol 862 ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
Wimala L. Dhanistha ◽  
R.A. Atmoko ◽  
P. Juniarko ◽  
Ridho Akbar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The North ◽  
Java Sea ◽  
The City

Indonesia is an archipelago, Surabaya is the second crowded city in Indonesia. So the shipping lane and the city is comparable. Neural network is models inspired by biological neural networks and used to estimate or approximate functions that can depend on a large number of inputs and are generally unknown. Neural network is used to predict the wave height in Java Sea (The North of Surabaya). The Root Mean Square Error average for the next one hour is 0.03 and the Root Mean Square Error average for the next six hours is 0.09. That’s mean the longest the prediction, the biggest Root Mean Square error.

Prediction, modeling and characterization of surface texturing by sulfuric etchant on non-toxic titanium bio-material using artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic systems

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Mohammad Khanlou ◽  
Bee Chin Ang ◽  
Mohsen Marani Barzani
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Sulfuric Acid ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Acid Etching ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Feed Forward Network

AbstractMultilayer feed forward network, radial biased function network, generalized regression neural network and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were used to predict the surface roughness of Ti-13Zr-13Nb alloy in etching sulfuric acid. Subsequent processes – polishing, sandblasting and acid etching or SLA – were employed to modify the surface. Alumina particles for surface blasting and concentrated sulfuric acid for acid etching were utilized in this experiment. This was performed for three different periods of time (10, 20 and 30 s) and temperature (25, 45 and 60°C). Correspondingly, the Ti-13Zr-13Nb surfaces were evaluated using a field emission scanning electron microscope for roughening and a contact mode profilometer for the average surface roughness (Ra) (nm). Different configurations of neural networks and ANFIS approaches are examined in order to minimize the root mean square error. Consequently, the ANFIS model is selected by dividing the time and temperature into one and three spaces, respectively, using the Gaussian-shaped membership function. A mathematical model is attained from the best approach in terms of root mean square error to realize the relation of the surface roughness of Ti-13Zr-13Nb alloy in etching sulfuric acid and time and temperature as the effective parameters.

scholarly journals Prediction of hydrological time-series using extreme learning machine

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Atiquzzaman ◽  
Jaya Kandasamy
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Feed Forward Neural Networks ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Hidden Layer

Applying feed-forward neural networks has been limited due to the use of conventional gradient-based slow learning algorithms in training and iterative determination of network parameters. This paper demonstrates a method that partly overcomes these problems by using an extreme learning machine (ELM) which predicts the hydrological time-series very quickly. ELMs, also called single-hidden layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFNs), are able to well generalize the performance for extremely complex problems. ELM randomly chooses a single hidden layer and analytically determines the weights to predict the output. The ELM method was applied to predict hydrological flow series for the Tryggevælde Catchment, Denmark and for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, USA. The results confirmed that ELM's performance was similar or better in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) compared to ANN and other previously published techniques, namely evolutionary computation based support vector machine (EC-SVM), standard chaotic approach and inverse approach.

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